Coronavirus

[Swerd]

At this point in time stats from the same reliable sources still say more dead from seasonal flu. Good ol' Schrödinger says we still don't know are the numbers from China real or not so they are both real and not. We don't act on that.

True, in hindsight we see the boy who cried, but as we're walking backwards into the future as dear gentlemen Guatari and Deleuze say, we're not in a position to conclude on what's coming based on what we've seen so far.

Again, I'm not boldly stating I'm right. I just want to see whether I'm right. Although I think we'll need more than the first week of March.

Right. You aren't the only one who says we have far more to fear from the season flu, than from the latest "yellow peril" virus.

 

[mtrycrafts]

At this point in time stats from the same reliable sources still say more dead from seasonal flu. ....

CDC estimates:
1 Oct 2019 to 8 Feb 2020
26 million - 36 million illness
12 - 17 million medical visits
250,000-440,000 hospitalization
14,000-36,000 deaths.

Question not answered;
how many organ failures, transplant needs, etc.

ps. clarification on 20 Feb:
This is about the flue in the US stat, just in case

 

[TLS Guy]

CDC estimates:
1 Oct 2019 to 8 Feb 2020
26 million - 36 million illness
12 - 17 million medical visits
250,000-440,000 hospitalization
14,000-36,000 deaths.

Question not answered;
how many organ failures, transplant needs, etc.

The answer is no one knows that answer to all those questions.

The big problem is that the number of cases not coming to medical attention is unkown. Medical serices are overwhelmed in China.

Of the cases coming to medical attention it appers the best estimate of mortality is around 2%. There has been no population studies to get a handle on those with mild symptoms and possibly more imprtantly how many are infectious and not ill.

Of those requiring hospital care, the seriously ill cases seem to be around 17 to 20%. Of that number nearly half need mechancal support for organ failure. Among those who receiver advanced care mortality is around 3% of that 17 to 20%. As resources become inadequate then the mortality of the cases requiring hospital care is around the 15% mark.

It is a big porblem not knowing the true incidence of the disease in exposed populations. This is especially troublesome as this novel virus seems highly infectious with high case rates in populations. This is unusual behaviour compared to SARS and MERS.

The cruise ship incident off Japan in my view was badly handled. It did however show that this virus could spread widely among a captive populaion even without direct contact with people known to have the infection.

I think those people should have been promptly removed from the ship and isolated in small groups.

As, and if, clusters of epidemics occur outside China, then plans made ready over the years need to be quickly put in place to accurately know the answer to disease incidence, proportion of severe cases and overall mortality data. Currently that is not known and that leads to uncertianlty and difficulty making sensible decisions about advising the public. That means that caution will require advice that may in hindsight turn out to be over restrictive. But clearly at present assuming the worst is far better than complacency, as you can't put the cat back in the bag so to speak.

I tend to agree with infectious diseas experts that some type of world wide pandemic is more likely than not. This is primarliy based on the fact that this disease appears at this time to be highly infectious.

This outbreak is already starting to have an economic impact outside China, especially in Europe. They seem to be even more dependent in Chinese manufacture than we are in the US. The potential economic repercussions of all this are enormous.

 

[mtrycrafts]

The answer is no one knows that answer to all those questions.

The big problem is that the number of cases not coming to medical attention is unkown. Medical serices are overwhelmed in China....

I guess I should have been clear that those stats are for US seasonal flue, not the Corona viruses as killdozer stated more death from flue.

 

[JerryLove]

The Novel Corona virus hasn't had a break out.

Yes. The flu has killed more people so far.... it's killed more than smallpox this year, but that doesn't mean smallpox isn't a dangerous disease.

The mortality isn't fully known, but NCV seems to be about as lethal as the 1918 swine flu (that killed 30 million). It seems damn hard to avoid catching (as the medical experts overseeing the quarantine are, themselves, catching it), and there's no vaccine (unlike the flu).

Let's say that infectivity is only as much as the flu (it seems moreso), and that mortality is 1% not 4% (which is that last number we sort-of have). Since we don't have a 50% resistance from vaccination, that would be about 70million Americans that would get NCV should it break completely out of quarintine, and 700,000 would die.

This isn't the internet, or even FOX news... the WHO thinks this is a crisis, and so does the CDC. It is, perhaps, one that can still be contained. Like Ebola was.

 

[RedCharles]

All about Spanish Flu
R0 Factor 2 is what most literature gives. However, this study gives a wider, higher range. 2.4–4.3. And 2.6–10.6 in confined spaces.

https://bit.ly/37NmtHA

Incubation period: 2-7 days
Sickness: Hours to days

Case Fatality Rate: Probably 10 percent. 500 million infected. 50 million dead. What made the Spanish flu so deadly, was it's swift replication, which was 39000 times higher than other strains. The CDC figured this out by hotswapping genes between Spanish Flu and current influenza viruses (2005).

The Discovery and Reconstruction of the 1918 Pandemic Virus

The complete story reflecting on the groundbreaking work that has led to global efforts to prepare for future pandemic threats.

www.cdc.gov

Decent Timeline of Spanish Flu

1918 Influenza Pandemic: A United States Timeline

bit.ly

640,000 out of 100ish million Americans died or about 1/2 a percent of the total population.

Worldwide, there were three waves of Spanish Flu. Spring 1918, October 1918, March 1919. The second wave was the deadliest.

New York City had three waves of Spanish Flu from Sept 1918 to Feb 1919. 30,000 people died out of roughly 5.6 million living in the city; 21,000 died in the second wave. Death rate was 4.7 out of 1000.

The 1918 Influenza Epidemic in New York City: A Review of the Public Health Response - PMC

New York City approached the 1918 influenza epidemic by making use of its existing robust public health infrastructure. Health officials worked to prevent the spread of contagion by distancing healthy New Yorkers from those infected, increasing ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Spanish Flu peaked in Oct. - Nov. of 1918 in both America and Europe.

Mortality burden of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Europe - PMC

Background  The origin and estimated death toll of the 1918–1919 epidemic are still debated. Europe, one of the candidate sites for pandemic emergence, has detailed pandemic mortality information. Objective  To determine the mortality impact of the ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Some quotes from an article:
"At the peak of the pandemic, then, the virus seemed to still be mutating rapidly, virtually with each passage through humans, and it was mutating toward a less lethal form." Seems to contradict the NY data, but the writer was focusing on local breakouts, rather than worldwide waves.

"Again, more curiously, someone who got sick 4 days into an outbreak in one place was more likely to develop a viral pneumonia that progressed to ARDS than someone who got sick 4 weeks into the outbreak in the same place. They were also more likely to develop a secondary bacterial pneumonia, and to die from it."

"Focusing on the shortest term, local officials almost universally told half-truths or outright lies to avoid damaging morale and the war effort. They were assisted—not challenged—by the press, which although not censored in a technical sense cooperated fully with the government's propaganda machine."

"Routinely, as influenza approached a city or town—one could watch it march from place to place—local officials initially told the public not to worry, that public health officials would prevent the disease from striking them. When influenza first appeared, officials routinely insisted at first it was only ordinary influenza, not the Spanish flu. As the epidemic exploded, officials almost daily assured the public that the worst was over."

The Story of Influenza - The Threat of Pandemic Influenza - NCBI Bookshelf

The article linked above was very interesting. I have been thinking that mildly symptomatic cases of Covid-19 are in fact mutations; most assume that the human body is more different than the antigen, but it is the antigen that has more potential for difference. And it may be that asymptomatic spreader are spreading a less virulent strain of Covid-19. Thoughts?

Researched some old NYT articles, and the earliest article I've found so far was June 21, 1918. "Spain affected by German Sickness, and other Countries Will Be, Says Hollander"
From article:
"The mysterious sickness now prevalent in Spain comes from Germany will doubtless soon reach other countries," said a Dutch tailor who recently returned from Germany. "Conditions among the civil population of Germany are terrible. Workmen die at their work from lack of nourishment."

It's late, I'm tired. I'll make another post on Spanish Flu tomorrow. Focusing on NYT articles.

 

[RedCharles]

Figure 1: The migration routes of migrant birds in all the world. There...

Download scientific diagram | The migration routes of migrant birds in all the world. There are eight migratory routes for birds in the world. Three routes of them pass by China: purple line, orange line and blue line. Light green region represents China and Red star represents the location of...

www.researchgate.net

Birds may be spreading Covid-19. Any thoughts?

 

[TLS Guy]

Figure 1: The migration routes of migrant birds in all the world. There...

Download scientific diagram | The migration routes of migrant birds in all the world. There are eight migratory routes for birds in the world. Three routes of them pass by China: purple line, orange line and blue line. Light green region represents China and Red star represents the location of...

www.researchgate.net

Birds may be spreading Covid-19. Any thoughts?

Covid-19 is novel virus. So there is no definite answer to your question. However if you take avian flu those birds affected can not migrate far. Personally I think person to person transmission, will be, and is now, the route of contagion. Planes fly much faster then birds.

I think though, we are approaching the tipping point. So does the CDC.

There are now serious outbreaks, in South Korea, Northern Italy and Iran. How it got to Iran is a big mystery. Italy has had a death of a member of the native population.

The CDC has now drawn up propsed plans for the US if an uncontrolled outbreak should occur. I think they consider this virtually inevitable now. The WHO is very concerned about the preparedness of Africa, for this novel virus. They are espeically concerned about the avialability of mechaical ventilation on the continent and its effect on mortality.

In Norther Italy movement has been seriously cutailed and assembly of people banned. An improtant Soccer match in a suburb of Milan has been cancelled. The Carnival of Venice has been cancelled. The borders to Iran have been sealed.

The CDC have recommended the isolation at home of large populations in regions where outbreaks appear, with cadrefully controlled rotational trips for food and other essential supplies. So it is time to seriously make plans for this should the administration agree.

There is very early talk of shutting down most travel by air.

So there is worry about monetary impacts of all of this, especially in Europe now. In particular Germany seems to be far more depenednt os Chinese manufacture than previoulsy realized and is already adversly affecd by this to an alarming degree.

I would say that the US media is not giving the attention to this issue it now deserves, which is contrat to the press and media in Europe.

I think the next two to three weeks will be pivotal in seeing how this will actually unfold. At the monment this is open to debate. I think it is fair to say though, that infectious disease experts now take a pessimistic view of the immediate prospects by and large.

 

[Swerd]

I think though, we are approaching the tipping point. So does the CDC.

There are now serious outbreaks, in South Korea, Northern Italy and Iran.

I agree.

The virus, as feared all along, is now out of the bag. I'm not too surprised at this. I would have been pleasantly surprised if it hadn't spread outside of China. We hoped for that, but as events have shown, that didn't happen.

Now we must work hard on medications that work in the short run, and effective vaccines in the long run.

I will find it interesting to see how many anti-vaxers remain in the face of a world-wide virus epidemic. I hope they vanish like atheists in foxholes during a war.

 

[JerryLove]

I will find it interesting to see how many anti-vaxers remain in the face of a world-wide virus epidemic. I hope they vanish like atheists in foxholes during a war.

Not only do they exist; there are quite a few examples of a loss of religious belief while in foxholes.

But yes. I understand the point and agree with the sentiment. Sadly: only anti-vaxers who personally know someone effected are likely to change their position.

 

[TLS Guy]

Unfortunately the situation is now serious.

It is only 12 hours or so since I last posted.

Now the case incidence in Northern Italy is 229. It has not yet reached a major population center. A further 6 people have died of this illness in Italy sonce my last post.

That is a mortality rate of 3%, and I can be sure that there are indiviuals now sick who will die from it. So this is now an infection on the verge of a pandemic with an alarming case mortality. This novel virus seems highly infectious and hard to track, because of asymptomatic super spreaders,

The other worrying thing is that this is a novel virus and so antigenic drift and changes in virulence are to be expected. Now this can cut both ways. This could make the lethality more or less over time. There is no way of predicitng this.

In my view this is now a grave situation, and almost certinly the gravest situation in my lifetime.

We now have this infection in a major westen country, that is an open society. It is not China. So we will get epidemiological data we can trust. This will gve authorities better information on what steps are wise. On that note, it may turn out that when the dust settles some mandated measures may have turned out to be over restrictive.
However, the public should grant authorities the freedom to err on the side of over restriction. Please follow advice and do not complain. We are going into unkown territory and the postion must be "Hope for the best and plan for the worst." I'm sorry to have to tell you that it is time for us all to make plans for the worst, and hope they won't be needed.

Unfortunately as I foresaw, a trillion dollars has already fallen off the world's stock markets today and falling.

 

[Swerd]

… But yes. I understand the point and agree with the sentiment. Sadly: only anti-vaxers who personally know someone effected are likely to change their position.

If the virus infected larger numbers of people here in the USA, and if it got news headlines, I would hope to see a significant reduction of anti-vaxers. Of course, that requires that we first have an effective vaccine available. It's like the inverse square law of electromagnetic induction. As you get closer, the effect rapidly gets more powerful.

I'm old enough to remember the polio epidemic in the US. I was in 1st or 2nd grade, and I clearly remember standing in line to get those early experimental vaccine injections. This was in a public elementary school, not a doctor's office. The widespread fear of polio was apparent to us kids. If I remember, there were two shots, one each year, followed a year or so later by the oral polio vaccine. There were a few cry-babies, but most kids got their vaccine shots without displaying any fear & loathing. They knew the ration of crap that awaited them at home if they didn't get that shot.

And if anti-vaxers are foolish enough to refuse vaccination, they can line up, post-humusly, for their Darwin Awards. Natural selection still works today, as it did in the past.

 

[Mr._Clark]

The CDC website says “current global circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic.”

This is not a drill.

 

[RedCharles]

Simple case fatality calculation shows 3.5 percent death rate in China currently. Will likely go up as new cases wind down. We will not know the true number of cases until cheap antibody tests are available.

新冠病毒最新实时疫情地图_丁香园

丁香园、丁香医生整合各权威渠道发布的官方数据，通过疫情地图直观展示，持续更新最新的新型冠状病毒肺炎的实时疫情动态。

ncov.dxy.cn

Dr. John Campbell, on youtube, mentioned some emails he had received from physicians in Iran. He didn't share what he had read, but you could tell by his body language that he was quite alarmed. 11:40

58 million people live in Hubei province. It's important to remember that even if you multiply China's numbers (64000 cumulative in Hubei) by a factor of twenty, as Imperial College London suggested, that's still only 1.3 million infections in Hubei province. Which is to say, even in the hardest hit place on Earth, 97.8 percent of people didnt catch Covid-19.

There's a case study of a 51 year old Thai taxi driver got it. Spent a few days sick at home before going to hospital. But he did not give it to his family. And he survived btw, despite hypertension and type 2 diabeetus. Trying not to catch this thing isn't a hopeless exercise.

In Qom Iran, they all go and kiss some shrine.

In Iran they also greet each other by kissing each other on the cheek. So big surprise it's spreading like mad over there.

My point is, as long as we don't start kissing each other, and or having 40000 family dinners it's not gonna be like The Stand.

In the beginning, when I first started this thread, I was afraid the cfr could be as high 70 - 85 percent based on some false information I found on 4Chan. So I'm actually in a state of relief.

I did my own death lag calculations about two weeks ago, and I came up with a 6 percent CFR at day 12.

According to these graphs, the CFR should be under 5% in a severe outbreak, and 1% in a controlled outbreak.

Updated COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics and analysis | Nucleus Wealth

COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics & analysis focusing on how countries are coping with Coronavirus outbreaks, including numbers of cases, deaths & testing

nucleuswealth.com

I also believe Korea will get this outbreak under control. South Korea, best Korea.

I also believe our that in the US, our decentralized system of government will be able to react and limit the outbreak much better than Hubei province. This battle will be won county by county, city by city.

Personally, I'm running hard in addition to the masks and food I stockpiled a month ago. I've lost ten pounds since Jan 23. I ran a marathon once, but I'm training for pneumonia this time around.

 

[shadyJ]

Simple case fatality calculation shows 3.5 percent death rate in China currently. Will likely go up as new cases wind down. We will not know the true number of cases until cheap antibody tests are available.

新冠病毒最新实时疫情地图_丁香园

丁香园、丁香医生整合各权威渠道发布的官方数据，通过疫情地图直观展示，持续更新最新的新型冠状病毒肺炎的实时疫情动态。

ncov.dxy.cn

Dr. John Campbell, on youtube, mentioned some emails he had received from physicians in Iran. He didn't share what he had read, but you could tell by his body language that he was quite alarmed. 11:40

58 million people live in Hubei province. It's important to remember that even if you multiply China's numbers (64000 cumulative in Hubei) by a factor of twenty, as Imperial College London suggested, that's still only 1.3 million infections in Hubei province. Which is to say, even in the hardest hit place on Earth, 97.8 percent of people didnt catch Covid-19.

There's a case study of a 51 year old Thai taxi driver got it. Spent a few days sick at home before going to hospital. But he did not give it to his family. And he survived btw, despite hypertension and type 2 diabeetus. Trying not to catch this thing isn't a hopeless exercise.View attachment 34259

In Qom Iran, they all go and kiss some shrine.

In Iran they also greet each other by kissing each other on the cheek. So big surprise it's spreading like mad over there.

My point is, as long as we don't start kissing each other, and or having 40000 family dinners it's not gonna be like The Stand.

In the beginning, when I first started this thread, I was afraid the cfr could be as high 70 - 85 percent based on some false information I found on 4Chan. So I'm actually in a state of relief.

I did my own death lag calculations about two weeks ago, and I came up with a 6 percent CFR at day 12.

According to these graphs, the CFR should be under 5% in a severe outbreak, and 1% in a controlled outbreak.

Updated COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics and analysis | Nucleus Wealth

COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics & analysis focusing on how countries are coping with Coronavirus outbreaks, including numbers of cases, deaths & testing

nucleuswealth.com

I also believe Korea will get this outbreak under control. South Korea, best Korea.

I also believe our that in the US, our decentralized system of government will be able to react and limit the outbreak much better than Hubei province. This battle will be won county by county, city by city.

Personally, I'm running hard in addition to the masks and food I stockpiled a month ago. I've lost ten pounds since Jan 23. I ran a marathon once, but I'm training for pneumonia this time around.

Liking this post for inclusion of image of Wilford Brimley. Please keep up the good work.

 

[Mr._Clark]

From the following article:

>>>The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”<<<

The gist of this article seems to be that no one really knows what will happen, but the odds are pretty good that most of us will get the Wuhan corona virus but the vast majority will survive.

The discussion concerning development of vaccines is interesting.

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[GO-NAD!]

From the following article:

>>>The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”<<<

The gist of this article seems to be that no one really knows what will happen, but the odds are pretty good that most of us will get the Wuhan corona virus but the vast majority will survive.

The discussion concerning development of vaccines is interesting.

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.

www.theatlantic.com

Just finished reading that article and was about to post a link. You beat me to it.

 

[davidscott]

Starting to look like a Robin Cook novel...

 

[mtrycrafts]

From the following article:

>>>The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”<<<

The gist of this article seems to be that no one really knows what will happen, but the odds are pretty good that most of us will get the Wuhan corona virus but the vast majority will survive.

The discussion concerning development of vaccines is interesting.

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.

www.theatlantic.com

Some consolation to the dead.

 

[TLS Guy]

So now we are at the action stage.

Things seem to be moving fast in Europe. The UK government fears that the disease may be more widespread in the UK than currently appreciated. Mass testing is to be started. Should the situation worsen, then schools will be closed and transport links cut, for instance ending public transport and road closures. The UK are making contingency plans that 50% of the population will fall ill with this illness. I do not know the reasoning behind this estimation.. However the fear is hospital and especially ICU overload.

So the best chance of reducing mortality is to try and prevent everyone getting sick at once, which would be a major disaster. Iran is under prepared and has poor health facilities. If their numbers are to be believed, which is a stretch, then their mortality is running 15%. There are alarming citizen reports coming out of Iran of unverifiable credence.

The UK NHS has particular worries as among Western countries they have the lowest ratio hospital and especially ICU beds.

The prime concern of the WHO is protection of health care workers. These have been especially vulnerable as one might expect, exacerbating the situation.

The next concern is how this will play out in the developing world especially Sub Saharan Africa. Closer to home the CDC news conference today was sobering. Their view is that a pandemic that also involves the US is now inevitable, but there remains considerable uncertainty how this will play out, especially timing.

Again the worry is too many people requiring hospital and especially ICU care at once. Obviously the simplest way of doing that is to stop public transport, close the roads and confine people to their homes. Hospitals have been asked to consider stopping elective surgery. I suspect that will become a mandate from state health departments soon.

In Minnesota the governor has ordered the state to start preparations for the impeding epidemic.

The authorities here are now recommending making sure that people have 90 days of medicine and consider what food supplies to have available, at the same time cautioning against panic buying. According to TV reports on the BBC, food shops are empty in Northern Italy and this is causing concern.

I think that older individuals like myself have to consider our position. If hospital and especially ICU beds become scarce, then we have, I think to give way to younger individuals, especially those with young families and of course health care workers. I hope it does not come to this but it could, if this outbreak is badly handled especially.

Obviously this is, and will cause massive economic disruption. I have read reports that this could last years. However my view is that once the crisis passes whenever that may be, and it will pass, there will be a massive production recovery and a fast recovery.
To me that seems the more likely scenario.

Lastly, it is now time to make plans to weather this crisis which almost certainly will come. Yes, this is much worse than the flu epidemics of our lifetimes. Yes, this will be worse than the flu. Don't let anyone tell you this will not even be as ad as seasonal flu. Current mortality data from most places now affected suggest it will be worse than the Spanish flu of 1918, especially in regions where medical facilities are primitive.