Coronavirus

[Swerd]

My Dad was diagnosed with colon cancer yesterday, but I'm more fixated on coronavirus. Perhaps I am overreacting.

I sorry to hear that about your Dad. Was it found before it spread beyond the primary tumor? Or has the disease spread? Will he have surgery & chemotherapy soon? I hope for the best.

It just might be possible that your strong reaction to the coronavirus news from China, may be related to your father's diagnosis. I can't say for certain, but don't rule it out.

With 45 million people under quarantine, I believe there may be millions infected, and tens of thousands dead. China's response to the disease is too strong for just 26 dead.

You may or may not remember the SARS virus from 2002-03. It also started in China and spread rapidly around the world. It took China about 5 months to admit to the rest of the world that there was a serious new virus on the loose. By then it had spread far and wide. The SARS breakout was stopped after about 2 years by worldwide efforts to contain the disease and keep it from spreading uncontrolled as a major epidemic. Fortunately it wasn't so very lethal once people learned how to treat infected patients for pneumonia-like symptoms.

So this time, China has made progress. Apparently this new viral disease was first noticed in December. China alerting the world in about 1½ months is much better than in did in 2002. I can only hope this new coronavirus behaves similarly to the SARS virus, and can be stopped before it spreads too quickly. Agencies like the CDC in Atlanta, GA, and those of other countries have learned a thing or two since the last new virus outbreak.

You can read reliable news about this new virus on Wikipedia:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

 

[Swerd]

More data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

On 17 January, an Imperial College group in the UK published a Fermi estimate (a statistical method) that there had been 1,723 cases (95% confidence interval, 427–4,471) with onset of symptoms by 12 January 2020. This was based on the pattern of the initial spread to Thailand and Japan. They also concluded that "self-sustaining human-to-human transmission should not be ruled out",[74][75] which has since been confirmed as happening.

As further cases came to light, they later recalculated that "4,000 cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan City... had onset of symptoms by 18 January 2020".[20][23] A Hong Kong University group reached a similar conclusion as the earlier study, with additional detail on transport within China.[76]

 

[TLS Guy]

This is where it gets difficult. WHO says this crisis has not peaked, but has not called a world health emergency due to the small number of cases outside China. However US government action is ramping up.

One worrisome feature is it seems asymptomatic people ca shed this virus. It is now know that every virus shedder is not symptomatic. This was not the case with SARS. The take home of this is that you will not control this epidemic by just screening symptomatic individuals.

We just don't know where this is headed yet. In particular we don't know if reporting of the situation within China is accurate.

What we urgently need to now out of China, is not only the case fatality rate, but how many get seriously ill and can not recover with simple low tech supportive measures.

What will make this very difficult is the rumor mill, especially in this age of social media. There are alarming reports in this arena. What we don't know is how much credence to give them. We do no the Chinese government are taking steps to stop these reports circulating. If official reports are accurate, then that is a good thing, if not it is a bad thing. We just don't know.

Official reports acknowledge there are 237 critically ill patients in Wuhan. That would be enough to stretch hospital resources in most large American Cities to the limit and overwhelm some. More would really be a problem. That has always been a big fear in the critical care community, facing down an epidemic where there was a high incidence of cases requiring mechanical ventilation. That is the point at which the crisis would turn to real disaster.

So I think that everybody needs to pay attention. It is possibly not too soon to make at least some preliminary plans, but certainly not implement them. I think the next couple of weeks or may be four will show where this crisis is headed.

I would suggest may be this issue should take precedence over impeachment on the front pages. However that reporting needs to be accurate and understandable without hysteria or sensationalism.

I don't think anybody knows how bad this thing will get, but I think it is fair to say they have good idea how bad it could get. This sort of thing has always been in the back of the minds of most healthcare professionals, especially those on the front line.

 

[RedCharles]

As far as my Dad's cancer goes, it's just one of his health problems. He isn't strong enough for chemo, but they will remove it, because the bleeding will kill him. I'm pretty certain that he will pass away this year. My wife thinks I am avoiding this by focusing on Coronavirus.

And I have been gauging my behavior in real time; no one I know is as perturbed as I am. And I have done this before. For example, there was an out of control wildfire nearby. I packed up everything in my house in response, and was ready to evacuate. I was the only guy in the neighborhood setting up sprinklers on his roof. I replaced a perfectly good X58 computer last year because of the threat of Spectre and Meltdown. After someone broke into one of our new homes for sale, I spent many nights there, defending the house. I think it's related to my Iraq War PTSD and Army training; I feel compelled to attain a state of readiness when I feel threatened.

But in this case, it's hard for me to tell, I am second guessing my thoughts by constantly communicating with others to see how they react to the same information. And while the information is alarming, everyone is waiting and seeing. Everyone also seems to believe that Chinese hygiene, political apparatus, density, healthcare, and military are far inferior to our own. I am not so sure.

And there is no one alive that has experienced a global pandemic, and people with a normal psychology tend to underestimate novel threats. But I have a history of overreacting to threats in general. It's hard to see what the appropriate course of action is even after careful reflection and communication.

 

[RedCharles]

I read that CNN article, and I hope she's correct. It's one of those rare, bold articles where the writer actual gives a real solution to the problem instead of scapegoating or complaining.

 

[RedCharles]

Relatives Wonder Why Pneumonia Deaths Not in Coronavirus Tally

The families of three people who died in separate hospitals in Wuhan this past week said they were surprised to find no mention of the new coronavirus on the death certificates.

www.wsj.com

Deaths are definitely being underreported.

 

[TLS Guy]

Relatives Wonder Why Pneumonia Deaths Not in Coronavirus Tally

The families of three people who died in separate hospitals in Wuhan this past week said they were surprised to find no mention of the new coronavirus on the death certificates.

www.wsj.com

Deaths are definitely being underreported.

We don't know that, but it is probably more likely than not. We do deserve reliable figures though. As reported the death rate is about 4%. However the seriously ill rate is about 25%. So if those are on, or close to needing mechanical ventilation, then if those numbers grow it will quickly outgrow resources. Then a lot, and probably most of that 25% will move to the mortality column. That really highlights the real anxieties of the medical community.

The ray of hope is that new technologies may be able to develop a vaccine using the latest RNA technologies. However producing the quantities required in time is another problem entirely. Then we get to who pays?

China has been repeatedly warned about its "wet" markets of animals and food. After this some really strong measures have to be taken against China and other Asian countries were "wet" markets are prevalent. This has been a constant worry of infectious disease specialists for a long time now.

 

[Hetfield]

We don't know that, but it is probably more likely than not. We do deserve reliable figures though. As reported the death rate is about 4%. However the seriously ill rate is about 25%. So if those are on, or close to needing mechanical ventilation, then if those numbers grow it will quickly outgrow resources. Then a lot, and probably most of that 25% will move to the mortality column. That really highlights the real anxieties of the medical community.

The ray of hope is that new technologies may be able to develop a vaccine using the latest RNA technologies. However producing the quantities required in time is another problem entirely. Then we get to who pays?

China has been repeatedly warned about its "wet" markets of animals and food. After this some really strong measures have to be taken against China and other Asian countries were "wet" markets are prevalent. This has been a constant worry of infectious disease specialists for a long time now.

Forgive my ignorance, what is the "wet" market? Is it really disgusting or have to with animal cruelty because then I don't want to know?

 

[TLS Guy]

Forgive my ignorance, what is the "wet" market? Is it really disgusting or have to with animal cruelty because then I don't want to know?

Wet Markets

 

[Hetfield]

Wet Markets

Thanks and I know this will sound bad but I really hate the human race. We don't get along with each other, we don't get along with the environment, and we don't get along with the other animals that we share this planet with. NASA should stop looking for intelligent life in space, out in the universe because we haven't found it yet here in Earth. Wet markets ,wild animals.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Thanks and I know this will sound bad but I really hate the human race. We don't get along with each other, we don't get along with the environment, and we don't get along with the other animals that we share this planet with. NASA should stop looking for intelligent life in space, out in the universe because we haven't found it yet here in Earth. Wet markets ,wild animals.

Yep, we would contaminate and destroy another planet out there.

Plus, it is all about $$$$$

 

[Alex2507]

Gonna have to get some internment camps going again.

Anybody know where YAA is nowadays?

 

[TLS Guy]

This is exactly what many of us have feared.

 

[Hetfield]

Hmm this is a bit Chernobyl like, in that it's suppression of information that will eventually get out. Not even the Chinese communists can keep something like from getting out.

 

[TLS Guy]

Daily Telegraph (UK) - Bias and Credibility

RIGHT BIAS These media sources are moderately to strongly biased toward conservative causes through story selection and/or political affiliation. They may

mediabiasfactcheck.com

Your left media bias outfit is clearly left biased.

This is factual.

Everything said here about Jeremy Corbyn is true. " Here is a quote from the article demonstrating conservative bias “Only Theresa May has the attitude and the experience necessary to get the job done – and to get it done in the cleanest, most comprehensive way. Jeremy Corbyn is not only incompetent and wrongheaded but dangerous.” They also publish articles strongly biased against the Labor party such as this: “A Corbyn government would be a calamity – everything else is just noise”.

That is not bias but fact. Corbyn is a fanatical Marxist who has allowed the labor part to become a very nasty cabal. So unfortunately the UK no longer has an opposition remotely capable to govern competently. This is a very dangerous situation. It seems things are unlikely to improve after the coming leadership election.

 

[TLS Guy]

"Your left media bias outfit is clearly left biased."

"This is factual."

Prove it. I want several independent, objective sources. Otherwise, your comment is entirely subjective and based on human emotion and ego.

The man clearly is a very dangerous leftist idiot.

Voting for Jeremy Corbyn Isn’t Just Dumb. It’s Dangerous.

British voters already pulled the lever for Brexit. Will they elect a terrorist-loving, Jew-baiting, NATO-hater as prime minister next?

foreignpolicy.com

Britain’s most dangerous export: Corbynism

Europe’s left is wrong to want to follow in the Labour leader’s footsteps.

www.politico.eu

Corbyn and the Jews

Statement of Chief Rabbi on antisemitism in the Labor party under Corbyn.

That should be enough for you.

Sanders and Warren are Corbyn lite, and also dangerous to our economic health. If either of them gets the Democratic nomination, then Trump needs to win by a landslide or we are in trouble. As Margaret Thatcher once said, "The left will always need to be continually swatted". How right she was.

 

[TLS Guy]

Anyhow getting back to the subject at hand. We now have five confirmed cases in the US.

The situation is now starting to have an impact on the world economy. It seems that it is likelyt here will have to be total quarantine of China and me be that whole region. At the moment this is affecting the travel industry the most, but will have knock on effects on supply of goods, fairly quickly probably.

 

[Pogre]

One of my, um... quirkier friends bought a kit with a p100 mask, replacement filters and goggles...

He's pretty sure this is the big one.

 

[Alex2507]

What specifically makes him 'dangerous'?

The fact that you're sticking up for him?

 

[jinjuku]

There's no panic yet. Home Depot and Lowe's were not cleared out of masks, gloves or goggles. Although amazon is sold out of surgical masks, and large 3m full facemasks. Bunny suits are not sold out yet.

Are they out of rectal thermometers? I'm asking for a friend (it's Alex).