"Blu-Ray Sales Tank" Editorial

[stratman]

First: I don't own any hi-def disc format, hence no ax to grind.

Second: Article is an editorial with no factual evidence, only heresy and conjecture.

Third: Blaming Sony singularly for Blu-ray problems is ludicrous, there are many cooks stirring the pot.

Fourth: Everyone that was following the market had this pegged a year ago, "the market will determine the fate of Blu-ray."

Fifth: Sholling nothing personal, but this smacks of sour grapes, I have no ax to grind but you had your hand on the HD DVD camp.

Sixth: Sony and the studios have too many billions invested, will it flop? Let's wait and see how the economy is doing at the end of the year, if it tanks (for our collective welfare, I hope it doesn't), it won't matter if the software will be at $10.00 per disc, no one will buy it or CE in general.

There's been an overall decline in CE purchases, the market is very soft and I fear it will get much softer so it's a moot point to pick on one segment of CE.

Seven: Next time if you're going to quote a source, please don't use The Enquirer, there are better sources for market numbers and shares.

P.S. Remember it was our own Clint that said that hi-def dvd formats would either disappear or be relegated to an obscure niche position slowly to fade away. He got some white hot mail for this, makes you want to think..............

I'm in the camp that says the economy will determine it's fate, this Christmas shopping season can make or break BD, I hope it does well, I hope all the bugs are worked out and I hope prices will come down, but more than all this, I hope the economy starts turning around.

 

[mike c]

I think the point of both articles is that Sony and their partners are killing the format with excessive DRM and prices that are way to high to break into the mainstream. They've killed off the affordable competition and now they are killing the future of their own format.

I may rent at some point but there is no way I'm paying $30 for a video. And really why bother. Direct TV looks just as good.

30 dollar video? i would be the first to recommend you not to buy a vid at 30 bucks. www.amazon.com 18-19 bucks per BD.

DRM? i don't know what DRM is, i don't care what it is, it's not stopping me from buying anything.

 

[BMXTRIX]

I'm in the camp that says the economy will determine it's fate, this Christmas shopping season can make or break BD, I hope it does well, I hope all the bugs are worked out and I hope prices will come down, but more than all this, I hope the economy starts turning around.

I think we are still at least one year off from a determining holiday season. I think this year will be as significant as last year in which Blu-ray in Q4'07 surpassed all of HD DVD stand alone units sold, despite 2 to 3 times the pricing levels.

This holiday season we will have our first influx of 2.0 players, but realisitically prices will be high, and the PS3 will still be the best deal going (I expect). So, it won't be until next year, when they've had a full year of playing with Profile 2.0 and we see things like the Oppo player come to market, that we will finally get a make or break point for BD.

This year, I expect sales to be up 3 digit percentage points from last year, but BD still not even close to hitting stride. That would be my crystal ball forcast on things.

Really did like your post though! So many sour grapes, rumor mongers, and people who think that normal hardware trends actually mean something more. Good to hear a more thought out response.

 

[BMXTRIX]

I think the point of both articles is that Sony and their partners are killing the format with excessive DRM and prices that are way to high to break into the mainstream. They've killed off the affordable competition and now they are killing the future of their own format.

I may rent at some point but there is no way I'm paying $30 for a video. And really why bother. Direct TV looks just as good.

Sholling - per disc, HD DVD almost never had sales and had retail pricing that was, across the board, as expensive as Blu-ray. So, you are now firmly stepping into sour grapes whining territory instead of embracing the unified HD video format that CEs proclaimed the 'official' successor to DVD.

The future of Blu-ray, with the majority of patents in the technology held by Panasonic (not Sony), is firmly in the hands of CEs and studios, who only benefit by the format doing well.

Since Toshiba had the 'affordable competition' - exactly why did they lose a billion dollars on their affordable alternative to sell less players?

I think for every 10 people standing on the sidelines there are 3 BD supporters and 1 leftover HD DVD fanboy who is stuck with a player they can't get any $30 new releases for anymore.

 

[Rob Babcock]

It's simply too expensive for what you get right now, and I'm an HT geek! Imagine what J6P thinks of the whole mess. I'm not gonna buy many discs at $30-$35 each. Hell, I won't even buy very many at $25. With the average DVD price around $13-20, with tons of great titles around $10, I'm more inclined to go for buying more good films than a few overpriced demo discs.

 

[AdrianMills]

I don't think the average user is put off at all by DRM, the vast majority will have never even heard of it. All the general populace knows is that HD is supposed to have a better picture and they need flat TV for it. But hey, that's understandable given the general level of technical competance of Joe average and his lack of motivation to even read the manual let alone learn techy stuff.

 

[TLS Guy]

I don't think the average user is put off at all by DRM, the vast majority will have never even heard of it. All the general populace knows is that HD is supposed to have a better picture and they need flat TV for it. But hey, that's understandable given the general level of technical competance of Joe average and his lack of motivation to even read the manual let alone learn techy stuff.

The average user will hear of DRM when his disc he just bought at a high price does not play. If he does not have a radio network, and a lot of people don't, and he finds he needs an Internet connection, he will go steaming back to the retailer. I don't believe this system is ready for mass market.

If a Blue Ray player is not just a straight replacement for their DVD player, the format is doomed in my view.

 

[sholling]

Not sour grapes. I do own a $99 HD DVD player that will make a fine up converting DVD player. No big deal. I also own a PS3. My beef is with Sony and their making a complete mess of hi def by releasing a product that was not ready and having moving target standards. What could have been a virtual replacement for DVD is now relegated to a niche because of Sony's greed. That's reason for legitimate anger. No not sour grapes.

 

[stratman]

Not sour grapes. I do own a $99 HD DVD player that will make a fine up converting DVD player. No big deal. I also own a PS3. My beef is with Sony and their making a complete mess of hi def by releasing a product that was not ready and having moving target standards. What could have been a virtual replacement for DVD is now relegated to a niche because of Sony's greed. That's reason for legitimate anger. No not sour grapes.

Hey Sholling,


Sony is Sony is Sony, it's a corporation like any other, they sometimes rush things to market in order to stay ahead of the game, I'm not defending them or their practices (frankly I think the whole DRM enchilada stinks of censorship, but I digress.) High def DVDs were and still are a niche market, they'll slowly catch up to DVD if consumers bite and bite hard, right now there are more pressing issues the FORMAT has to deal with like recession and public apathy, the public right now has more pressing needs than CE.

It's a bit of cycle, but I'm looking forward to BD sorting itself out, remember it's not just Sony, but Panasonic and a host of other players involved. As to the eventual replacement for DVD, whatever it will be has to be cost effective or it wont survive. Sadly, I know some people who are canceling their satellite service because the cost of living has put a burden on entertainment, now what are the odds they'll buy BD or VOD?

 

[BMXTRIX]

Yes, it's most definitely sour grapes - and not the first time. You are mad at Sony when Samsung released the first product to market.

You are mad at Sony when Panasonic has the most patents in the technology.

You are mad at Sony when the PS3 was a first year release product and is still proving itself to be the most formidable BD player on the market.

Don't get me wrong - but you clearly have some issues with Sony and with companies making a profit on products they help create. Next time you go to work, make sure to return your paycheck since working for money equtes to greed.

I don't give a damn when people do or do not buy into Blu-ray as long as more and more movies are released on the format over time. As pricing drops it may or may not come out of niche status, but I can live with it being a successful niche product (think Apple computers). As long as companies make decent money with it, they'll release titles, and my HD displays will get HD content, which is why I paid top dollar for them in the first place.
$10 more for a quality title with quality video and quality audio hardly seems like to much more to ask for. Considering some careful shopping will get me most titles for under 20 bucks, and I'm really happy most of the time.

Just because others don't follow this path doesn't bug me in the least. Feel free to enjoy upconverted 480i video and lossy sound. It really doesn't affect my enjoyment, or the enjoyment of millions of others.

 

[TLS Guy]

Yes, it's most definitely sour grapes - and not the first time. You are mad at Sony when Samsung released the first product to market.

You are mad at Sony when Panasonic has the most patents in the technology.

You are mad at Sony when the PS3 was a first year release product and is still proving itself to be the most formidable BD player on the market.

Don't get me wrong - but you clearly have some issues with Sony and with companies making a profit on products they help create. Next time you go to work, make sure to return your paycheck since working for money equtes to greed.

I don't give a damn when people do or do not buy into Blu-ray as long as more and more movies are released on the format over time. As pricing drops it may or may not come out of niche status, but I can live with it being a successful niche product (think Apple computers). As long as companies make decent money with it, they'll release titles, and my HD displays will get HD content, which is why I paid top dollar for them in the first place.
$10 more for a quality title with quality video and quality audio hardly seems like to much more to ask for. Considering some careful shopping will get me most titles for under 20 bucks, and I'm really happy most of the time.

Just because others don't follow this path doesn't bug me in the least. Feel free to enjoy upconverted 480i video and lossy sound. It really doesn't affect my enjoyment, or the enjoyment of millions of others.

I watch with 2 channel PCM audio, uncompressed. That's audiophile quality. I would love Blue Ray, but I refuse to support the sewers in Hollywood and their onerous DRM schemes.

 

[BMXTRIX]

I watch with 2 channel PCM audio, uncompressed. That's audiophile quality. I would love Blue Ray, but I refuse to support the sewers in Hollywood and their onerous DRM schemes.

What do you get that from?

I mean, it surely couldn't be a DVD with it's onerous DRM scheme that Hollywood put forth with the DVD format could it?

Hollywood has always had DRM, and likely always will. Certain companies will work to circumvent it, and most law abiding citizens are completely unaware of DRM and that it exists when they buy and play their movies.

It's a cop out arguement - it's BS. DVD had it, HD DVD had it, BD has it, whatever comes next will have it. And only those who are actively intent in breaking copyright law seem to be upset. I buy movies, my player plays them back, what in the world does the DRM on the disc have to do that would bug me in the least? What does it do that bugs YOU?

 

[TLS Guy]

What do you get that from?

I mean, it surely couldn't be a DVD with it's onerous DRM scheme that Hollywood put forth with the DVD format could it?

Hollywood has always had DRM, and likely always will. Certain companies will work to circumvent it, and most law abiding citizens are completely unaware of DRM and that it exists when they buy and play their movies.

It's a cop out arguement - it's BS. DVD had it, HD DVD had it, BD has it, whatever comes next will have it. And only those who are actively intent in breaking copyright law seem to be upset. I buy movies, my player plays them back, what in the world does the DRM on the disc have to do that would bug me in the least? What does it do that bugs YOU?

I'll tell you what bugs me, about this whole DRM.

The HDCP codes have been a fiasco. I think having equipment obsolete 18 months after purchase is just not on. I object to having my gear have to make wobbly handshakes between units, at the behest of those absolute sewers in Hollywood. Gear should connect one way. This over complicates gear with NO increase in performance, and adds significant cost. If you are a manufacturer it is a bigger nightmare.

I object to this regions nonsense, on DVD's. This creates havoc for no purpose whatever when you have a lot of overseas relatives. That scheme is really daft.

I object to all the DRM built into Vista. I won't use it and don't. Microsoft at the behest of the Hollywood crowd have come up with a system that takes a huge amount of processing power and energy checking that you are not a pirate. If I were to use the Vista operating system in my workstation, it would keep disconnecting my asio drivers, assuming I'm a pirate which I'm not. And I could go on and on about the vices of Vista because of DRM.

Getting to BD, I don't want a system were they keep changing the rules. I want a system were I buy a disc, it plays anywhere in the world, and will always on that type of player. I don't want changing codes, wobbly handshakes and Internet connections, to be able to play what I buy. What if someone decides they don't want the Internet? That should not stop them playing discs they buy.

I'm not the only one who objects to all this. Steve Jobst was the first to say its time to roll down the curtain on DRM and now Bill Gates agrees.

You seem to be sympathetic to the wants of a bunch of very depraved people in Hollywood. Its time for everybody, including the manufacturers, to just refuse to build this nonsense in their equipment and stop paying the exorbitant license fees. And to top it off it serves no purpose whatever. The pirates always beat it, the legitimate consumer pays, and is inconvenienced. We do need a federal ban on DRM, and that's no cop out.

You need to stop advocating for a bunch of juvenile, vile depraved people, who populate Hollywood. They are vile, perfectly vile.

 

[ParkerAudio]

Bluray has been a fiasco, not sure why people can't see that. I love the technology, but I am stuck with a Samsung, which regularly receives a lot of mail from a law firm, that doesn't play a lot of bluray movies, no matter what update I do. I don't have a axe to grind with Sony, I am typing this on a new Vaio laptop computer, I have multiple Vaio desktops, own a PS3, because it still is the best bluray player, just as good, if not better, than the Denon I purchased. So I thoroughly enjoy Sony's products. However, a lot of posts seem to say that Sony isn't the biggest proponent of bluray. It absolutely is, perhaps not patent based, but definitely money invested. They have based all their new multimedia technology on it, sunk 10's of millions in advertising, and would stand to lose way more than Toshiba's billion dollar lost.

 

[AcuDefTechGuy]

It's simply too expensive for what you get right now, and I'm an HT geek! Imagine what J6P thinks of the whole mess. I'm not gonna buy many discs at $30-$35 each. Hell, I won't even buy very many at $25. With the average DVD price around $13-20, with tons of great titles around $10, I'm more inclined to go for buying more good films than a few overpriced demo discs.

Man, I can remember spending $50 one LaserDisc back then!

 

[ParkerAudio]

Laserdisc guys are hardcore.

 

[AcuDefTechGuy]

I watch with 2 channel PCM audio, uncompressed. That's audiophile quality. I would love Blue Ray, but I refuse to support the sewers in Hollywood and their onerous DRM schemes.

What? So your 7.1 is only for SACD/DVD-A music and not for movies?

TLS, you must get the upcoming Marantz blu-ray player to match your Marantz DV9600 SACD/DVD-A player!

 

[TLS Guy]

What? So your 7.1 is only for SACD/DVD-A music and not for movies?

TLS, you must get the upcoming Marantz blu-ray player to match your Marantz DV9600 SACD/DVD-A player!

I watch movies seldom. My wife and children watch them. Most of them bore me so much, I go downstairs to the other system.

I do like to watch opera and they have an uncompressed PCM track. The only thing that would attract me to BD is when there are a significant number of true, not fudged, operas on BD. They are just starting to appear.

The movies I do tend to like, Hollywood has nothing to do with. I really enjoyed La Vie en Rose. Those audio engineers made the Hollywood dopes look like tinkers.

 

[BMXTRIX]

Bluray has been a fiasco, not sure why people can't see that.

Because, by far, the majority of people have bought the PS3 isntead of stand alone models and haven't run into any issues whatsoever. For people who cry foul about 2.0 or about stand alones not being up to par, they aren't wrong, but it doesn't mean that people who bought a release date PS3 have had a single issue in the last - what are we at now - 18 months? of ownership.

However, a lot of posts seem to say that Sony isn't the biggest proponent of bluray. It absolutely is, perhaps not patent based, but definitely money invested.

I would agree with this 100%, but Sony doesn't control Blu-ray, they just are heavily involved and put their money where their mouth is by taking huge risks on the technology. Yet, every player Sony sells puts money into Panasonic's pocket. Every movie sold puts money into Sony's pocket. There will be far more movies sold then there will be players - so Sony stands to gain the most through movie sales.

Yet, it is still very much a Titanic sized ship with all the CEs that are truly involved with BD. I mean, think about some of the headaches you may go through at the compay you work for now - then imagine a company many times that size (perhaps), and multiple companies, all trying to decide on every little detail.

Just like the early days of DVD, it will take some time for them to get it all figured out. Which is not convenient, but certainly hasn't... what's the title of this post? Oh yeah - 'tanked' sales.

I personally care about BD because it has broad support. Maybe not for all the opera lovers out there , but for most people, the studiso are on board, and the CEs are on board. This means the movies I want will be available to me, and I'm all for that.

Some people come off advocating against HD and in this day and age, I really just don't get it.

 

[ParkerAudio]

I am not challenging anything here, but I constantly hear that Panasonic owns the patent on bluray, but I have only found that it was a conglomerate of nine companies (see below). Could someone show me a link with Panasonic holding the patents, I am just curious, for my further education.

The "Blu-ray Disc Founder" was founded in May 2002 by nine leading electronic companies: Sony, Matsu**bleep**a, Pioneer, Philips, Thomson, LG Electronics, Hitachi, Sharp, and Samsung. Spearheaded by NP Infotech, on February 19th 2002 the companies announced [2] that they were the "Founders" of the Blu-ray Disc and later changed their name to the "Blu-ray Disc Association" on May 18, 2004 to allow more companies to join their development. Some examples of companies that signed in include Apple, TDK, Dell, Hewlett Packard, The Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros. and Universal Music Group. As of December 2007, there are more than 250 members and supporters of the Association.