That's exactly what has me so baffled about this HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray battle. What made Joe Average want to get a Blu-Ray player when he could get HD-DVD for half the price? Isn't price everything to Joe Average?
HD-DVD was a completed spec right out of the gate. Sure, there were firmware update but every HD-DVD player from day one supported every feature in the spec. We're still waiting for profile 2.0 Blu-Ray players!
What caused Joe Average to go against the grain and buy into an incomplete format that cost twice as much? I bet that he wouldn't and I went with HD-DVD. Apparently I bet wrong.
Available software, OR, better yet, the illusion of available software was IMO another deciding factor. Even though HD-DVD had more titles available initially, the different adds for BD showed all these different characters from major movies like Spiderman, Pirates of the Carribean, Harry Potter, etc. Of course, many of the movies weren't even available yet in BD, but they at least gave the impression that they would be. Eventually, BD did overtake HD-DVD in title availability.
I also believe that, regardless of the price differences in the hardware, the pricing was high enough for both formats, that most of the early adopters would be more along the lines of a "videophile", not really a "Joe Average" therefore, they won't just look at the component itself, but also, how much the software was, and how much of it is available, etc. Even though BD was no quite "complete", it had some major backing from the big boys in the A/V world, like Panasonic, Pioneer, and Samsung and Phillips. Others that committed to BD were Mitsubishi, Sharp and Denon. That's where HD-DVD could have possibley won the war, but they couldn't get any other major manufacturers, other than RCA to jump on board. Yeah, Onkyo made a late announcement, but at this point, I don't think their HD player will be out for very long. Also having the prices are $30+ dollars for ONE movie at most retail outlets for most titles put them in the same boat as BD.
Please don't take this as a defense for BD. I like Toshiba, and still have my SD-3109 DVD player from them. I just think it's time for them to move on.
At this point, I don't think they can win this now.