Sony CEO Uncertain of Blu-ray Future

[aberkowitz]

That's my opinion. The difference between VHS and DVD was spectacular both in terms of picture quality and convenience. The difference between HD and SD optical discs is not spectacular. It is certainly noticeable but not earth-shaking. When HD optical discs and players cost the same as the SD products, they will begin to replace SD in a meaningful way. Or, the next generation of HD technologies may be spectacular enough to do it at a higher price.

Completely agree. I think there's only about 5-10% of the buying public (90% of whom are found on these boards!) who can actually tell the difference in sound and video quality between HDDVD/BD and SD.

I think people forget that DVDs didn't wipe out VHS within the first 18 months of launch. DVD players were launched in March 1997, and it took almost the first two years to sell 1 mm dvds. Even after the first two years of sales DVD players cost $500. Hell, even 3 years ago, if I remember correctly, a decent DVD player still cost closer to $200 than $100.

 

[Harrison476]

Let the early adopters pay back your R&D costs, and then start dropping prices to appeal to the masses while the early adopter crowd springs for the next technology.[/QUOTE]


Your just described me

 

[mouettus]

Completely agree. I think there's only about 5-10% of the buying public (90% of whom are found on these boards!) who can actually tell the difference in sound and video quality between HDDVD/BD and SD.

I think people forget that DVDs didn't wipe out VHS within the first 18 months of launch. DVD players were launched in March 1997, and it took almost the first two years to sell 1 mm dvds. Even after the first two years of sales DVD players cost $500. Hell, even 3 years ago, if I remember correctly, a decent DVD player still cost closer to $200 than $100.

Agree

My video store...
1. ... is still selling it's old VHS for 2 bucks a piece. So they must still be alive for a couple of flolks out there who apparently don't care about quality
2. ... I must fight to find a widescreen movie. All I can find is 3/4 of them in 4:3. The owner told me that people were ASKING 4:3 movies cuz they hate having black bars at the top and bottom on their TV.

Maybe we're not that ready yet for HD movies. Not enough people own a nice big tv set. Or they don't care about TV at all. I say bring another media type that would support HD movies, one that would be kinda impossible to scratch. Big memory sticks or something. And no I don't want to download my movies on the net. Downloading 30Gb would take me days and I have a max bandwith of 20Gb a month for download.

 

[Tex-amp]

I'd also be wary of using the Netflix number to represent the rental market as a whole since Blockbuster only rents BD. Since HD renters have no other choice but to use Netflix (and this is assuming that Blockbuster and Netflix make up 80+% of the rental market) then it makes sense that Netflix would have a higher ratio. Put both places together and you probably have a good sense of the total rental market.

Blockbuster's on-line rental service rents HD DVDs too. My understanding is the Blockbuster BD exclusive is only for the corporate owned stores. Franchisee owned stores can carry HD DVD. http://www.blockbuster.com/browse/collections/hdDvdPackage

 

[GlocksRock]

The BB near me only rents Bluray in store, they have a decent selection, but not as much as I would like, at least I can get both formats online, the only thing is that it seems like most of the discs I have in my queue seem to have a wait.

 

[Rock&Roll Ninja]

The mindboggling lack of common sense among these companies is providing me with a few chuckles (I don't have stock in Sony, Toshiba, or any film company).

1st. Sony's great SACD Poodle-F*ck. People are downloading all Sonys music. Sony has developed a new compact disk that prevents ripping & uploading, is compatible with 99% of CD players in hybrid form. Sony doesn't release new material in SACD.

If Sony (and all its umbrella labels) made every disc a SACD hybrid they'd have 7 years of market penetration. They could then say "starting 2010 all music releases will be SACD only." piracy solved; Just never release a SACD-R drive.

2nd. Toshiba & HD-DVD. With a good 6 month lead on Blu*Ray and HDDVD/DVD combo discs Toshiba/Warner was sure to win. But they still sell cheaper DVD-only movies instead of all combo disks.

I swear, formats are not decided by consumers, they are decided by a collective group of executive dumb****s that can't tell their ******** apart from holes in the ground. The formats have "won" when the opposing executives eat silica , try to have sex with great white sharks, or do some other thing which evolution should have breed out of humanity 120,000 years ago.

 

[patnshan]

I gitta say I seem to be the only HD-DVD hopeful here

Nope. I see it as getting more positive everyday

Pat

 

[patnshan]

Because HDDVD keeps saying they are the cheaper product, but Onkyo will be a $1200 player, there goes saying that all of their players are cheaper than bluray. I might agree they are cheaper, but I dont want a cheap product.

The onkyo player has nothing to do with the price of entry level players, which is all that matters here.
Pat

 

[patnshan]

At only 420,000 players after 1 1/2 years, they are a long way from being set.

HD DVD doesn't stand a chance against all the powers in the Blu-ray camp. Panasonic, Disney, Fox, Samsung, Sharp, JVC, Mitsubishi, Hitachi, Denon, Marantz, Pioneer, Sony, Philips; they're not going to let Blu-ray lose.

The studio support is there, the industry support is there, the CE support is there; HD DVD has one hardware manufacturer and studio support is up in the air; Warner's titles have been selling better on Blu-ray all year.

HD DVD sold 90,000 players in one week-end, a week-end in which there were $14.98 movies there to buy with the player - they got beat 71:29 on the week.

All of those companies that you listed can easily make and market HD DVD players. Don't kid yourself in thinking that it would no be VERY easy for them to jump ship at any time. Panasonic or Phillips could probably create an HD DVD player in 6 months! It's my opinion that the only company that will lose face in this is Sony. They already have because of their pompous CEO and all his speeches.

As for studios, I believe Warner did not renew their membership in the Blu Ray group. I wonder why? I think it is in preparation for jumping ship.

IF you are correct, why in the world would the usually chest beating, "we won already" Sony CEO make a speech recently that questions the state of Blu Ray in the market when every other speech he's made has claimed victory? There has to be something in the market making him backpedal. No?

Pat

 

[aberkowitz]

2nd. Toshiba & HD-DVD. With a good 6 month lead on Blu*Ray and HDDVD/DVD combo discs Toshiba/Warner was sure to win. But they still sell cheaper DVD-only movies instead of all combo disks.

2 reasons why they didn't do this:

1) Toshiba is the electronics manufacturer, not the movie studio. Even though they chaired the "DVD Forum" (which to me sounds more and more like the fictional Pentaveret from So I Married An Axe Murderer") They have no control over what the studios release, what format they release it in, and when back catalog items get rereleased as HD products. Obtaining buy-in from all of their supporting studios would be hard because of reason #2:

2) HDDVD/DVD combo discs are more expensive to manufacture and therefore are sold at higher prices. By not offering SD DVDs the movie studios would be pissing off 99% of the population (remember early adopters do not drive long term profits) by drastically raising the price of buying a movie. You're an average consumer, you're used to paying $15.99 or $19.99 for your DVD which you play in your middle of the road player you got from BB, CC, or Walmart, and now all of a sudden the only way you can buy a new release is to pay $34.99- and it includes a ton of features you'll NEVER use?? That's straight up bad business.

Since I was curious about combo discs, I did a quick check on Amazon for prices (I looked at 10 movies), and the combo discs tend to run $8-10 more per disc than the standard widescreen. Combo discs are more expensive than bluray discs where there's dual-release. Even wackier, combo discs are more expensive than the plain HD DVD version for certain movies where they've released both!! How does that make sense??? Why would a studio (In this case Warner Brothers) feel the need to release "Good Night and Good Luck" on SD, BD, HD, and HD/DVD combo??? Right now the SD is $14, the BD is $20, the HD is $24, and the combo is $28.

 

[aberkowitz]

As for studios, I believe Warner did not renew their membership in the Blu Ray group. I wonder why? I think it is in preparation for jumping ship.

Pat

Not sure where you got that information from... according to WB's website and BR Association's website they're still a full member. Here's a press release quote from Warner's Home Video VP:

"But now that hardware pricing is affordable for both Blu-ray and HD DVD, it appears consumers no longer want to decide—so the notion of staying in two formats for the duration is something we are re-evaluating now that we are in the fourth quarter...[but] we are committed to the [Blu-ray] format."

This was part of a press release sometime around 10/31.

 

[Alamar]

The mindboggling lack of common sense among these companies is providing me with a few chuckles (I don't have stock in Sony, Toshiba, or any film company).

I agree with you on this one. Neither the HD or Blu camps have really made a lot of customer friendly moves OR moves that could have already won them this fight.

For example HD has almost always had a cost advantage across the board compared to Blu but until recently they haven't really been pushing this advantage hard. That plus movies costing a boatload of $ isn't helping things. Smaller discs && lower max bitrates on their discs aren't helping ....

Blu could have done a lot of things better themselves. Region locks, so-so specifications on players, managed copy, etc. are all strikes against them.

 

[patnshan]

Not sure where you got that information from... according to WB's website and BR Association's website they're still a full member. Here's a press release quote from Warner's Home Video VP:

"But now that hardware pricing is affordable for both Blu-ray and HD DVD, it appears consumers no longer want to decide—so the notion of staying in two formats for the duration is something we are re-evaluating now that we are in the fourth quarter...[but] we are committed to the [Blu-ray] format."

This was part of a press release sometime around 10/31.

I read the memvership thing on another forum yesterday, I'll have to look for it

Pat

 

[patnshan]

I agree with you on this one. Neither the HD or Blu camps have really made a lot of customer friendly moves OR moves that could have already won them this fight.

For example HD has almost always had a cost advantage across the board compared to Blu but until recently they haven't really been pushing this advantage hard. That plus movies costing a boatload of $ isn't helping things. Smaller discs && lower max bitrates on their discs aren't helping ....

Blu could have done a lot of things better themselves. Region locks, so-so specifications on players, managed copy, etc. are all strikes against them.

I agree that HD could do A LOT for themselves if they lowered disc prices a bit. $28 is crazy for most of the offerings out there right now.

Pat

 

[Alamar]

If HD or Blu really wanted to force things they would just decide to cannibolize their base DVD sales and package a hidef & standard DVD disc in the same box AT THE STANDARD DVD PRICES.

I suspect if Joe Blow buys 10 DVDs and they all come with [for example] Blu HD discs then Joe Blow would buy a Blu player as soon as he could afford one. Eventually you could drop DVD alltogether.

 

[GlocksRock]

Are all HD DVD discs combo discs, or is it just some of them?

 

[patnshan]

Are all HD DVD discs combo discs, or is it just some of them?

Just some of them, and I believe they have discontinued the making of them. I guess a lot of folks had problems. I have or have used about five of them and they all work fine.

Pat

 

[GlocksRock]

Too bad there were issues, I thought it was a great idea.

 

[Rock&Roll Ninja]

2) HDDVD/DVD combo discs are more expensive to manufacture and therefore are sold at higher prices.

I don't buy this for a minute. YES combo disks do cost more BUT a generic DVD has a manufacturing cost of less than $.10 without booklets/cases. The cost of manufactureing a combo disk would have to be 10,000% of a regular DVD to garner the extra ten bucks warner seems to think they are worth. Since you cannot make me believe a combo disk costs 1000x as much as a regular DVD I have no choice but to subscribe the dual relase of both SD-DVD and HD-DVD/SD-DVD combos as a matter of corporate dumbf*ckery.

 

[Rock&Roll Ninja]

I must now copywrite corporate dumbf*ckery©