I don't plan on ever buying HD-DVD. I expect that it will never catch on, and I don't want to be invested in the next failed format.
Right now, different studios have agreed to release on different formats, so if you want to be able to watch all movies in HD, you need both. And the owners of the formats are saying (the last I heard, anyway) that they will not licence a universal player to play both (which makes it unlike SACD and DVD-A, as "universal" players that play both are common, and therefore make it easier for the two formats to coexist). Well, I don't think the current situation can last. I think one of the following will happen:
- One format will catch on fairly well, then all studios will release films in that format, as they all want to sell movies.
- The owners of the formats will relent and licence universal players that can play both. In my opinion, this is the ONLY way both formats are going to be able to survive.
Most people are not going to be willing to buy two players so they can watch all movies. It just isn't going to happen. Also, I have not looked at the latest numbers, but there are still a lot of people who do not own HDTVs, and they obviously will not see any benefit to the new formats.
If I were to guess about what will happen, I would say 1 above. The format to win will be the one with the most films that are popular (regardless of which format is better in itself). If I were to guess right now, I would guess that Blu-Ray is going to win. But so many things can happen, I would not want to bet on it.
If 2 happens, then all of the current HD players will immediately become obsolete.
Given the financial advantages to owning THE way to put out HD discs, I don't think that a universal player is going to happen. If one of the players starts catching on in a big way, all the studios will jump on board the winning format. They do, after all, want to sell movies.
Unless you have a grand or two you don't need, I would advise waiting until there seems to be a clear winner. Not only would picking a losing format be costly, even picking a winner is costly, as prices for both hardware and software will likely drop soon. And, of course, there will likely be remastered, deluxe versions that come out later to replace the early releases of HD discs; they will probably get better at making them over time, just like they did with DVDs. Of course, if both formats flounder for a while, a new, better format may come out to replace them both.