I love you all, but I'm predicting both formats will ultimately fail to entice consumers to go out in droves and transition from DVD. My guess is that the PS3 will saturate the market when it comes out, but the number of people who will also use that device for high end movies and audio will be very slim...
Even though these new formats have all the great DRM goodness that Hollywood loves, they won't sacrifice DVD sales for the security features of the new format... i.e. they won't dare force it... and so confusion and lack of market penetration (in the living room) will abound, leaving the DVD king and everyone scratching their heads.
That's how I see it coming down... It would be different if there was just one format, but there's not... and consumers I talk to a) don't care, b) don't understand it, c) don't care, and most importantly... d) don't care and don't understand it.
Everyone should do an experiment to understand why I feel this way. Ask your brother-in-law, uncle, Dad, etc what he/she thinks of BD or HD DVD and see what kind of response you get. Then strike up a conversation about plasmas, LCDs or DVDs... The former is being PUSHED on consumers who don't care - the latter is exciting and something they want (even if it's confusing).
