What are we thinking with Taiwan and Ukraine?

highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
found this 2021 info.
Here are the 10 countries with the most nuclear weapons:

  1. Russia (6,490)
  2. United States (6,185)
  3. France (300)
  4. China (290)
  5. United Kingdom (200)
  6. Pakistan (160)
  7. India (140)
  8. Israel (90)
  9. North Korea (30)
And, to think that the US & Russia have been decommissioning nuclear weapons for decades. A big part of the problem is: Where are Russian and US nukes positioned? We both have a fleet of subs, so they won't likely be mostly intercontinental- that eight minutes between launch and strike that they used to talk about is more likely only a couple of minutes. If Biden thinks he has the balls to stand up to Putin, we're screwed because Putin won't blink.
 
A

Am_P

Full Audioholic
No they are the guys who resisted the Chinese communist revolution. Their leader chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan and set up a government in exile, which still stands today. Taiwan has never been part of mainland China, and the Chinese have absolutely no claim to the island.
I don't know where you live chief, but, I live in a more conservative part of the country. After 4 years of Don Drumpf, all the confederate flag waving billhillies around where I live are really energized and ready for another civil war because in their words "the commie left is takin over". If you want affordable healthcare or if you want to get rid of the endless handouts for the corporates, you're a commie in the eyes of these disinformed billhillies. I am convinced that the subtle disinformation campaigns propagated by China and Russia online have a part to play here. Either way, we've got bigger problems at home than worrying about liberation of Taiwanese guys and Crimean guys. These are self proclaimed "patriots" who want a civil war and wanna get rid of 50% of their countrymen..
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
The human population won't go extinct from nukes. In all probability, it will go extinct due to biological agents/warfare.
If they use nukes and the targets are distributed in places where the fallout will drift to major population centers, a lot of people will experience horrible deaths. At that point, some people may welcome biological agents because of the typically quick results.
 
A

Am_P

Full Audioholic
If they use nukes and the targets are distributed in places where the fallout will drift to major population centers, a lot of people will experience horrible deaths. At that point, some people may welcome biological agents because of the typically quick results.
We are in the year 2021, not 1960. Atleast, the 3 big nuclear armed countries (USA/China/Russia) have advanced tech to detect/neutralize most nukes before they hit deemed targets. The precise location of an adversary's nuke sub is known 24/7. But, bio warfare is a very different story. No one would know where the hell it came from or what the hell it even is before it's too late.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
We are in the year 2021, not 1960. Atleast, the 3 big nuclear armed countries (USA/China/Russia) have advanced tech to detect/neutralize most nukes before they hit deemed targets. The precise location of an adversary's nuke sub is known 24/7. But, bio warfare is a very different story. No one would know where the hell it came from or what the hell it even is before it's too late.
I know the year- we did 'duck and cover' drills when I was in grade school.

Fallout comes in similarly- just floats on the breeze from many miles away. Not so easy to avoid the radiation because most people don't have enough food & water, or a way to decontaminate incoming air.

Neither is a good option.
 
GO-NAD!

GO-NAD!

Audioholic Spartan
We are in the year 2021, not 1960. Atleast, the 3 big nuclear armed countries (USA/China/Russia) have advanced tech to detect/neutralize most nukes before they hit deemed targets. The precise location of an adversary's nuke sub is known 24/7. But, bio warfare is a very different story. No one would know where the hell it came from or what the hell it even is before it's too late.
Anti-ballistic missile tech is far from perfected at this point. And, knowing where everyone's SSBN's (known as "bombers" in the RN/RCN, "boomers" in the USN) are, 24/7, is a fallacy. While there have been occasions when a Russian SSBN has been tracked throughout its patrol, it most certainly isn't universal. And, complicating the prosecution of such targets is the fact that they are generally escorted by an attack submarine.

In other words, counting on neutralizing their ballistic missile threat as a strategy would be a roll of the dice - meaning not a strategy at all.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
I posted that the Nord Stream is an alternative- well, a German regulator has put the kibosh on it, at least for now.

 
D

Danzilla31

Audioholic Spartan
We are in the year 2021, not 1960. Atleast, the 3 big nuclear armed countries (USA/China/Russia) have advanced tech to detect/neutralize most nukes before they hit deemed targets. The precise location of an adversary's nuke sub is known 24/7. But, bio warfare is a very different story. No one would know where the hell it came from or what the hell it even is before it's too late.
I agree bio warfare is a serious threat but still even if they take out most nukes with defensive systems it won't matter as they don't need very many to get through just 1 would be catastrophic
 
highfigh

highfigh

Seriously, I have no life.
I agree bio warfare is a serious threat but still even if they take out most nukes with defensive systems it won't matter as they don't need very many to get through just 1 would be catastrophic
Maybe they're still holding onto the Cold War vintage nukes- with luck, they'll work like a Boris Badenov attack.

Seriously, I hope the payload is smaller than what I have heard.
 
lovinthehd

lovinthehd

Audioholic Jedi
Good grief more stay at home not involved armchair quarterbacks with world issues beyond their ken....gotta love steam vent sometimes, sometimes not.
 
D

Danzilla31

Audioholic Spartan
Good grief more stay at home not involved armchair quarterbacks with world issues beyond their ken....gotta love steam vent sometimes, sometimes not.
I brought this up to vent learn and get viewpoints from everyone. Gotten some good feedback from some members that have a lot of life experience such as @TLS Guy which I appreciate if you don't like it then stay off my thread and sit in your armchair
 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
A well-known 20th century American general once said that Americans can fight and win any war if all of the following conditions applied:
  1. They were supplied with the best weapons, clothing, food, and equipment.
  2. They had the full support of the American public.
  3. They had an enemy that presented a clear threat to their homeland.
I cannot remember who said this. It might have been Douglas MacArthur, but these words were later ignored by many generals and politicians who should have known better. (MacArthur also once said that America should never get involved in an Asian land war. We all know how he ignored that in Korea.)

I would add two more lessons we learned the hard way because of Vietnam:
  1. Never go into a war with anything less than overwhelming strength.
    (The Vietnam War never had the full support of the American public, even as a limited war. Americans would never have supported going into Vietnam with the overwhelming strength that was needed to completely subdue North Vietnam.)
  2. Never send US military forces to war to achieve a political goal. The US military is very good at killing people and blowing things up. But it’s not so good at negotiated outcomes.
    (Despite Vietnam, we had to painfully re-learn that all over again in Iraq and Afghanistan.)
With those 5 points in mind, let’s look into Ukraine and Taiwan.

We can do #1. Our air and naval forces are easily the best in the world. But on the ground, in faraway places like Ukraine or Taiwan, it would require a major land army effort. And that could only happen if items #2 and #3 also happened. It would also require significant help from allies.

It’s unlikely that Russia or China would go so far as to directly threaten the USA. They both have shown their ability to provoke us without going far enough to provoke an all-out response.

It’s my guess that Russia is bluffing about Ukraine. Putin wants to take it without fighting a costly large scale war. Russia simply cannot afford that kind of war, win or lose. He wants to learn how far the US and NATO will allow him to go on the cheap.

China, on the other hand, is less easy for me to read. They do extensive business with us and the rest of the world. Why would they harm their own economic self-interest? But, it is also clear that they are expanding their military in a big way.

The entire Chinese effort at expanding into the South China Sea can be easily explained if you look at a map for the island of Hainan (see below). The Chinese have a major submarine base on the north side of that island. In the past, that was their only submarine base, where all their nuclear missile subs were based. But I’m not sure if there aren’t other bases now.

The South China Sea is notoriously shallow water. Submerged subs can easily be spotted by airplanes or satellites. Chinese subs have to travel east of Taiwan and the Philippines before they reach deep water. That’s why the Chinese are so aggressively claiming the South China Sea as their own – to enable deep water access for their submarines. I don’t know if the Chinese are bluffing about taking Taiwan or not, but it might be enough to force us to act. I sure hope we have good intelligence on the Chinese.
1639258350378.png
 
D

Danzilla31

Audioholic Spartan
A well-known 20th century American general once said that Americans can fight and win any war if all of the following conditions applied:
  1. They were supplied with the best weapons, clothing, food, and equipment.
  2. They had the full support of the American public.
  3. They had an enemy that presented a clear threat to their homeland.
I cannot remember who said this. It might have been Douglas MacArthur, but these words were later ignored by many generals and politicians who should have known better. (MacArthur also once said that America should never get involved in an Asian land war. We all know how he ignored that in Korea.)

I would add two more lessons we learned the hard way because of Vietnam:
  1. Never go into a war with anything less than overwhelming strength.
    (The Vietnam War never had the full support of the American public, even as a limited war. Americans would never have supported going into Vietnam with the overwhelming strength that was needed to completely subdue North Vietnam.)
  2. Never send US military forces to war to achieve a political goal. The US military is very good at killing people and blowing things up. But it’s not so good at negotiated outcomes.
    (Despite Vietnam, we had to painfully re-learn that all over again in Iraq and Afghanistan.)
With those 5 points in mind, let’s look into Ukraine and Taiwan.

We can do #1. Our air and naval forces are easily the best in the world. But on the ground, in faraway places like Ukraine or Taiwan, it would require a major land army effort. And that could only happen if items #2 and #3 also happened. It would also require significant help from allies.

It’s unlikely that Russia or China would go so far as to directly threaten the USA. They both have shown their ability to provoke us without going far enough to provoke an all-out response.

It’s my guess that Russia is bluffing about Ukraine. Putin wants to take it without fighting a costly large scale war. Russia simply cannot afford that kind of war, win or lose. He wants to learn how far the US and NATO will allow him to go on the cheap.

China, on the other hand, is less easy for me to read. They do extensive business with us and the rest of the world. Why would they harm their own economic self-interest? But, it is also clear that they are expanding their military in a big way.

The entire Chinese effort at expanding into the South China Sea can be easily explained if you look at a map for the island of Hainan (see below). The Chinese have a major submarine base on the north side of that island. In the past, that was their only submarine base, where all their nuclear missile subs were based. But I’m not sure if there aren’t other bases now.

The South China Sea is notoriously shallow water. Submerged subs can easily be spotted by airplanes or satellites. Chinese subs have to travel east of Taiwan and the Philippines before they reach deep water. That’s why the Chinese are so aggressively claiming the South China Sea as their own – to enable deep water access for their submarines. I don’t know if the Chinese are bluffing about taking Taiwan or not, but it might be enough to force us to act. I sure hope we have good intelligence on the Chinese.
View attachment 52191
That was some great information thank you for contributing @Swerd I too also suspect this might be just pushing the edge saber rattling so to speak to see what they can get away with but you never know

Thanks again!
 
cpp

cpp

Audioholic Ninja
Anti-ballistic missile tech is far from perfected at this point. And, knowing where everyone's SSBN's (known as "bombers" in the RN/RCN, "boomers" in the USN) are, 24/7, is a fallacy. While there have been occasions when a Russian SSBN has been tracked throughout its patrol, it most certainly isn't universal. And, complicating the prosecution of such targets is the fact that they are generally escorted by an attack submarine.

In other words, counting on neutralizing their ballistic missile threat as a strategy would be a roll of the dice - meaning not a strategy at all.
It really doesn't matter if a super power can detect a incoming nuke or not, the problem is, if it did happen that's all one has to say successful or not. This action by any country including ours will bring about distrust, a wacked out population bent on war or possible wars,, and in the end death. People all over the world, really forget about the aftermath of WW2, the people that died as a result of us the USA dropping "the Bomb' on Japan. But egos' in Russia, and China, the little silly man in North Korea , Pakistan, India and Iran could make life unlivable thinking a nuke can solve anyone's problems.

I was reading this noting anything is possible , like the conflict with India and Pakistan over Kashmir which started back in 1947. Lets say Pakistan set off a few nukes in their fight with India." That horrifying scenario is just the beginning ., India sends their nukes. Smoke from the incinerated cities rises high into the atmosphere, wrapping the planet in a blanket of soot that blocks the Sun’s rays. The planet plunges into a deep chill. For years, crops wither from California to China. Famine sets in around the globe. ". Makes you wonder, what if.
 
Last edited:
mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
It really doesn't matter if a super power can detect a incoming nuke or not, the problem is, if it did happen that's all one has to say successful or not. This action by any country including ours will bring about distrust, a wacked out population bent on war or possible wars,, and in the end death. People all over the world, really forget about the aftermath of WW2, the people that died as a result of us the USA dropping "the Bomb' on Japan. But egos' in Russia, and China, the little silly man in North Korea , Pakistan, India and Iran could make life unlivable thinking a nuke can solve anyone's problems.

I was reading this noting anything is possible , like the conflict with India and Pakistan over Kashmir which started back in 1947. Lets say Pakistan set off a few nukes in their fight with India." That horrifying scenario is just the beginning ., India sends their nukes. Smoke from the incinerated cities rises high into the atmosphere, wrapping the planet in a blanket of soot that blocks the Sun’s rays. The planet plunges into a deep chill. For years, crops wither from California to China. Famine sets in around the globe. ". Makes you wonder, what if.
So then Hawaii is a safe place? ;) :D
Not sure how many nukes it would take to place the planet int nuclear winter.
 

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