Ukraine – Russia … not more of the last thread

[GO-NAD!]

Yes, latest statement is 40.000+ soldiers out of the loop, including 16.000+ killed
Seems like the people around putler only tell him what he wants to hear, so there is no real communication here

From what I hear now, the Ukrainian troops around Kyiv is doing insanely well organized counterattacks and they start to push back

The training provided by several NATO countries has been paying off.

How training by Canada helped give Ukrainian army a fighting chance against Russia

Giving small-unit commanders the autonomy to make decisions on the fly was a cultural transformation for the Ukrainian soldiers, but seems to be paying off in spades

nationalpost.com

This certainly doesn't help Russian army effectiveness.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507524865959788545

 

[SithZedi]

I don´t believe anything coming from soviet union!

Ha, I agree. The only time I believed them was when they announced they were breaking up. Now, I am not so sure.

 

[Dan]

I guess it was never 100% verified that the dead body found was actually Hitler ...

They checked his corpse against his dental records.

 

[Dan]

How did they capture/kill Hitler?

He killed himself.

 

[Dan]

I do agree that they made some stupid decisions. Deciding to try to invade Russia in the middle of the winter ranks on the top of that list in my mind.

But you can say the same thing about the Allies. They underestimated Germany. And it cost them dearly in the beinning whether Germany got lucky or not.

We have an opportunity to avoid the same situation playing out with Russia and China. But only if we learn from our past mistakes and not underestimate our enemies.

I agree there ideology and method of government makes them prone to stupid decisions and susceptible to having discrepancies between carrying out initiatives in theory and carrying them out in reality as were seeing demonstrated with Russias conflict in Ukraine

Reminds me of the movie Red Dragon the prequel to Silence of the Lambs where Edward Nortons character is speaking to Hannibal Lecter's character played by Anthony Hopkins in the gym. Lector looks at Norton and says "you caught me so I suppose that makes you think your smarter then me". Nortons character replies "no not smarter at all not even close". "You just had certain disadvantages". "Oh? Lector replies "what were those?". Nortons character replies "your insane."

These nations have fundamental disadvantages in how they think and operate based on ideology. Still they shouldn't be underestimated. I'd rather overprepare for an adversary then underprepare

They didn't invade in winter. They invaded in June 1941. However a sidetrack into Yugoslavia that took much longer than expected delayed the invasion by a month, originally planned for My. They came to seriously regret that the following winter.

Nazi efficiency is a myth. They were a horribly corrupt government. One example is that they were planning to build a third big battleship along the lines of the Bismark and Tirpitz. It was scrapped for the dumb idea it was but nobody told the factory making the enormous engines which took a couple years to build. When they were done in 44 they had to be scrapped. A tremendous waste of steel and manpower much needed elsewhere.

 

[shadyJ]

I do agree that they made some stupid decisions. Deciding to try to invade Russia in the middle of the winter ranks on the top of that list in my mind.

One quick note: the nazis did not try to invade Russia in the middle of winter. In fact, they knew well the dangers of waging war on Russian soil in a winter climate. They had originally intended to invade early in the spring, but there was an uprising in their allied Yugoslavia that they sent some troops to in order to keep the allied government in charge. This delayed their invasion plans of Russia by a critical few weeks, so they invaded later in spring. Their plans were to have the war against Russia done in a few months. They progressed to just 30 miles outside of Moscow before the winter set in and froze their advance. This is generally regarded as the tipping point for the war in Europe.

In fact, to get as far as they did as quickly as they did was another stroke of dumb luck. Stalin refused to listen to any intelligence that indicated that Germany was planning to invade. He only accepted it at the last moment, but by then it was too late. Stalin's stupidity and fearfulness allowed the Germans to make as much progress as they did. However, Stalin's ruthlessness and stubbornness helped to halt the German advance, eventually.

 

[SithZedi]

They didn't invade in winter. They invaded in June 1941. However a sidetrack into Yugoslavia that took much longer than expected delayed the invasion by a month, originally planned for My. They came to seriously regret that the following winter.

Nazi efficiency is a myth. They were a horribly corrupt government. One example is that they were planning to build a third big battleship along the lines of the Bismark and Tirpitz. It was scrapped for the dumb idea it was but nobody told the factory making the enormous engines which took a couple years to build. When they were done in 44 they had to be scrapped. A tremendous waste of steel and manpower much needed elsewhere.

Exactly right. Some historians get caught up in that efficiency issue along with Italians i.r.o. Mussolini because of the "they got things done" myth, i.e., the trains ran ontime. Germany and Italy had governments that ran centralised "command" economies which always lead to great waste, inefficiency, destruction of capital, and ultimately severe rationing for the common people.

 

[Danzilla31]

One quick note: the nazis did not try to invade Russia in the middle of winter. In fact, they knew well the dangers of waging war on Russian soil in a winter climate. They had originally intended to invade early in the spring, but there was an uprising in their allied Yugoslavia that they sent some troops to in order to keep the allied government in charge. This delayed their invasion plans of Russia by a critical few weeks, so they invaded later in spring. Their plans were to have the war against Russia done in a few months. They progressed to just 30 miles outside of Moscow before the winter set in and froze their advance. This is generally regarded as the tipping point for the war in Europe.

In fact, to get as far as they did as quickly as they did was another stroke of dumb luck. Stalin refused to listen to any intelligence that indicated that Germany was planning to invade. He only accepted it at the last moment, but by then it was too late. Stalin's stupidity and fearfulness allowed the Germans to make as much progress as they did. However, Stalin's ruthlessness and stubbornness helped to halt the German advance, eventually.

Yeah thanks for the correction youall I chose my words poorly I just remembering studying this in history thinking that decision to go in at the time of year was really stupid I know the campaign didnt start in winter but thats where it ended up.

In fact dividing his forces at that point between 2 major military campaigns when the West hadn't been fully won was incredibly risky and arrogant to me as well.

Also how Russia just kept drawing them in just kept giving ground bringing that force farther and farther in with the other side not realizing like a Venus fly trap. Too late your so far in your not getting back out before winter hits. Terrible oversight I remember thinking how could the Germans have overlooked this

But then again regardless of there reasons for going in it the outcome goes back to your point Shady of there arrogance overconfidence and incompetence based on ideology

Like you said they thought they would be done in just a few months. Those Russians weren't going to be a problem.That type of thinking shows a lot of similarity with Putins misjudging the campaign in Ukraine.

 

[Danzilla31]

They didn't invade in winter. They invaded in June 1941. However a sidetrack into Yugoslavia that took much longer than expected delayed the invasion by a month, originally planned for My. They came to seriously regret that the following winter.

Nazi efficiency is a myth. They were a horribly corrupt government. One example is that they were planning to build a third big battleship along the lines of the Bismark and Tirpitz. It was scrapped for the dumb idea it was but nobody told the factory making the enormous engines which took a couple years to build. When they were done in 44 they had to be scrapped. A tremendous waste of steel and manpower much needed elsewhere.

Your point goes along with my original posting with Shady. The fact that despite there inefficiencies and terrible government they did so much damage and got so far makes it even more relevant to today.

How were they able to do that? Because the West made mistakes as well. We also have problems in our idealogy weaknesses in our thinking its unavoidable though. Every approach to things has its advantages and disadvantages especially Including underestimating there opponent. I just hope we dont make the same mistakes against China and Russia

Because I see parallels. Tieing our economies to nations in different sectors that just use our currency to blatantly build up there infrastructure to beat us is one of them

I think the same thing happened with Hitler in the years leading up to that conflict if I'm not mistaken. There were lots of concessions given to him that got him to the position he was in to start the conflict in the first place if I'm not mistaken

 

[SithZedi]

Further to Shady's points, the Nazi's were well aware of the seasonal issues. They studied Napoleon's advance and ultimate humiliation @100 years earlier but made many miscalculations and were drunk from their success using Blitzkrieg tactics earlier in the war.
Other issues, besides the Balkans, hanging on the timing were rather more due to Hitler himself, not his central command. He did believe he could get Great Britain to join him by continued military pressure(U Boat and Luftwaffe) and the influence from British aristocratic sympathizers.
One my old history professors used to say that the major flaw with Barbarossa was that Germans should have just advanced to a defensible position in the North and focused on the drive south to the Caucasus (the oil fields). That way they would had secured oil supplies before the US entered the war...

 

[Dan]

I agree completely Danzilla. In a war as huge as WW2 mistakes are bound to happen on all sides. But the worst mistakes were prewar. There was such distaste for war by the western allies that appeasement and failure to prepare left them vulnerable. The German blitzkrieg strategy worked extremely well against unprepared opponents. Same for the Japanese for six months. After April 42 the Japanese never won a major campaign only an isolated battle here and there. By 1943 with a static front line the Russians knew exactly where the Germans were going to attack, the Kursk salient. They laid tons of mines backed by artillery and tanks that were a match for the Germans. The same old German tactics even with a new generation of tanks failed utterly.

Also of parallel to the present, they were many factors that led to the German success in the summer of 41. Certainly Stalin's unwillingness to listen to warnings played a role. However his officer corps had been decimated by his purges of anybody deemed disloyal, leaving frightened lackeys left. The front line Soviets just melted away without competent leadership. If this current war stays conventional, the Russians will reach a tipping point where the army will fail to attack or defend IMO. I have no idea how chemical or nuclear strikes would affect things though.

 

[SithZedi]

Probably good advice to heed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507674227628908547

 

[Swerd]

How did they capture/kill Hitler?

I was away from AH and this thread yesterday. When I checked in on it late last night, I saw this question, and all the responses.

@Dude#1279435 – That was brave of you to ask a question that could be seen as naive or stupid. I was happy to see that you felt comfortable enough to ask it. I've always said, no question is stupid. The only stupid question is the one you don't ask.

For anyone familiar with WW2 history, Hitler's demise is well known, even if it never was fully confirmed. Even though some of the responses to your question were a bit iffy, it made me very glad to see how this question was handled.

 

[haraldo]

There are only stupid answers…. not stupid questions!

 

[Mikado463]

There are only stupid answers…. not stupid questions!

LOL, live long enough and you will be asked plenty of stupid questions ....

 

[Mr._Clark]

There have been numerous news reports that the Wagner Group is in Ukraine to assassinate Zelensky (the second link below is just one example).

Seeing these reports reminded me of an article from 2018 at nyt.com about a clash in Syria between about 40 U.S. special forces guys and a much larger number of fighters from the Wagner Group. I'm not sure how relevant it is to the current situation in Ukraine, but the nyt.com article is fascinating reading.

>>>WASHINGTON — The artillery barrage was so intense that the American commandos dived into foxholes for protection, emerging covered in flying dirt and debris to fire back at a column of tanks advancing under the heavy shelling. It was the opening salvo in a nearly four-hour assault in February by around 500 pro-Syrian government forces — including Russian mercenaries — that threatened to inflame already-simmering tensions between Washington and Moscow.

In the end, 200 to 300 of the attacking fighters were killed. The others retreated under merciless airstrikes from the United States, returning later to retrieve their battlefield dead. None of the Americans at the small outpost in eastern Syria — about 40 by the end of the firefight — were harmed. . . .

“The Russian high command in Syria assured us it was not their people,” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told senators in testimony last month. He said he directed Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “for the force, then, to be annihilated.”

“And it was.” . . .

For the first 15 minutes, American military officials called their Russian counterparts and urged them to stop the attack. When that failed, American troops fired warning shots at a group of vehicles and a howitzer.

Still the troops advanced. . . .

American warplanes arrived in waves, including Reaper drones, F-22 stealth fighter jets, F-15E Strike Fighters, B-52 bombers, AC-130 gunships and AH-64 Apache helicopters. For the next three hours, American officials said, scores of strikes pummeled enemy troops, tanks and other vehicles. Marine rocket artillery was fired from the ground. . . .<<<

How a 4-Hour Battle Between Russian Mercenaries and U.S. Commandos Unfolded in Syria (Published 2018)

Interviews and newly obtained documents provide the Pentagon’s first public on-the-ground accounting of one of the bloodiest battles the military has faced in Syria since deploying to fight ISIS.

www.nytimes.com

U.K. Says Russian Mercenary Group Aims to Assassinate Ukraine’s President

Wagner Group, which the EU calls a proxy force for Russia’s Defense Ministry, is being used to try to assassinate Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.

www.wsj.com

 

[cpp]

Heck I just want this to end and the US stays out of it.

 

[haraldo]

Heck I just want this to end and the US stays out of it.

One can argue if USA, UK and France is really standing up the their obligations from the 1994 Budapest memorandum. In 1994 Ukraine revoked their nuclear weapons, in return of guaranteed safety and integrity

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances comprises three identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary, on 5 December 1994, to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents.[1]

 

[SithZedi]

One can argue if USA, UK and France is really standing up the their obligations from the 1994 Budapest memorandum. In 1994 Ukraine revoked their nuclear weapons, in return of guaranteed safety and integrity

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances comprises three identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary, on 5 December 1994, to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents.[1]

I think it is beyond arguing. Russian guilt aside for the moment, the US and the West have bungled this issue since 1994. As for what happens now, stop the current war immediately to save lives and before any unpredictable escalation. Then come up with a stable formula going forward so the Ukrainians can go back to building their country.

 

[haraldo]

We should have made the sanctions 8 years ago whenever russia invaded Ukraine, there's been a war in Ukraine for 8 years and we kind of closed our eyes to it thinking it would probably go away.... it would have been easier stopping putler then but we were all too coward and too weak!

I have no idea how to stop the war, other than someone "dealing with" putler