I love disagreeing with Clint whenever possible... so here we go.
1. Almost all first generation products are buggy. This goes especially so for HDTV and those who may remember the early adopters who jumped on board with the Panasonic model or the RCA DTC-100. The Panasonic especially was prone to a true lockup, at random times, which required a hard power reset for it to work. The RCA box was slow, painstakingly slow. Yet, here we are 7+ years later and people don't remember those pains (unless they still have one of those $1K plus units). Field testing new products is par for the course - HDMI, HDCP, almost ALL Windows Operating Systems... The key is to have some upgradability built in.
2. Format wars is an interesting point as it just doesn't exist right now. There is no real clue about whether HD-DVD or Blu-ray will amount to a real format war. That is, Blu-ray has the potential to decimate HD-DVD starting this fall. Right now, not so much. But, if all 7 major studios step up, PS3 sells (like it should), and stores continue to see real profit margins, there won't be many who are pushing HD-DVD except the Wal-Marts out there - and $500 isn't exactly on the J6P scale.
3. This has been covered but DVD is 480i - HD discs are both 1080p at their core. DVD wasn't a quantum leap compared to LD. But, it was well represented and well marketed. Will consumers be confused? Undoubtedly. But, there are people who buy into the iPod without realizing that if that hard drive fails they may be out 100% of music they paid for! Consumer confusion and potential headaches don't necessitate the failure of a product. As well, most people DO get that CDs aren't DVDs.
4. Well - okay, 100% agree - Studios are greedy and conservative. But, greedy first. The market is there, it is big, and it is growing. DVD sales are down, what is the new catalyst and who will likely be the winner. If 4MM PS3 units are in homes by years end that's a heck of a motivator for studios to take a bit more action on a format they have already agreed to support.
5. The PS2 wasn't marketed as a DVD player, but it didn't stop millions of people from having it, and using it, as their first DVD player - years after DVD had already been on the market! The PS3 doesn't need to be marketed as a Blu-ray player, nor should it be - especially at first. Sales will be through the roof, and game consoles will be impossible to come by. This is an open door and if the PS3 lives up to being an 'average' Blu-ray player it will be a player in 100+ times as many homes than any of the stand alone players. Reports put it closer to 40% usage for movie playback... So, games first, movies second? But, in millions of homes - that's a TON more than other formats have ever done in the first year.
6. I'm sorry - but VHS is still not dead. 10+ years - still there. So, why the sudden rush to eliminate DVDs? The advance in the PC world from CD-R to DVD-R didn't eliminate either format. Likewise, this is the infancy of a new format. The key to the push is not the technology, but a combined effort by all involved players - this includes manufacturers globablly making the product, content being readily, and prominently available. Stores pushing the sales of the product to consumers. The content itself showing a real improvement that adds value to the purchase of the consumer... and of course, reliability.
7. They bought an HDTV, have no content to display on it, and for some reason you think a HD disc player which can make use of the display that J6P bought would be tougher to sell because he has that HDTV? I think that logic is backwards. I fully believe that DVD was one of the major pushers for digital cable. People had seen analog cable, then DVD came along and left it sitting in the dust. So, the great switch to DirecTV began. 100% digital content that looked worlds better. Now we have these digital HD displays and very little content for them... so, the disc technology is now (finally) coming along to put these displays to their full potential. Seems like an easy sale to me (if the price were to come down).
8. The funny thing about enthusiasts is that they NEVER get tired or smarter. Some enthusiasts do, sure, but it is the old guys who are just cynical and write 10 point articles that slam a new format (
). The Toshiba is selling out, the Samsung is likely to do very well, the Sony and Pioneer Elite, Panasonic, Sharp, etc. are likely to do well... and PS3... whew. So, early adopters will continue to come along - many of whom don't even know what an 8-track is. Others may be a bit more tight with their cash and wait for 2nd generation - but those aren't early adopters anyway.
9. The news media is what it is - but unlike DVD-A and SACD, I have actually HEARD news reports about HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc. That's at least some exposure for these products that likely wouldn't have happenned any other way. I am not troubled by the news that is being broadcast because it is something. It is at least newsworthy, which is more than SACD/DVD-A was. Then it comes to a format war... which I question as being existent.
10. Absolutely - if there would be anything that could kill HD discs it would be HDeTV. Broadband delivery in a Netflix type fashion... Which will happily download to... ??? what? HTPCs aren't there yet. They aren't on the shelf next to DVD players. They aren't integrated with CableCard, there is no way to get HD video throug them (satellite or cable) they are NOT inexpensive, they have no content. So, while I think there are two major HTPCs that are cutting edge in the X-Box 360 and PS3, the lack of an industry even seeming to exist for it yet will make it several years in the development - and is likely the one to come after Blu-ray... if Blu-ray shows as a success.
CONCLUSION:
All that said, and I am not 100% convinced of any guaranteed success of Blu-ray. I am convinced that Blu-ray will not lose out in a format war, though both formats may survive. I believe that HD-DVD has a huge advantage with pricing right now as well as their actual use of advanced codecs. But, Blu-ray has a lot more... Pricing, down the road could be eliminated rather quickly. CODECs as well are just semantics which can be dealt with by releasing dual layer discs or switching up to advanced codecs. But, Blu-ray has the studios AND manufacturers AND a better profit line for stores. It all combines to spell success...
IF - and that's a big if - it all actually happens. Studios need to release movies. HD quality needs to be delivered at the highest levels. All listed manufacturers actually need to release players/recorders (Sharp, Panasonic, Sony, Samsung, Pioneer, LG, etc.). PS3 needs to do exactly as expected and forcast... and needs decent games to go with it. Finally, pricing needs to come down over the next 1-2 years to put it in line with DVD.
You may commence with my beating now.
