Russia - Ukraine

[haraldo]

I think even Putin is not so crazy that he will use Nukes....

Former head of MI6 is very clear that Putin made a major super-mistake here and he can only lose in the end, most likely this is his inevitable fall....

Even China is starting to break some bonds with Russia....

 

[SithZedi]

For a full picture, it might be helpful to go back a bit further.

In 1954, the Soviet Union made Crimea part of Ukraine. With the dissolution of the USSR, Crimea remained with Ukraine. If Russia wanted it back, that should have been negotiated at the time. They had no entitlement to just take it back.

In 1994, the Budapest Agreement was signed by Russia, the US and the UK, to assure Ukraine security in exchange for giving up her nuclear weapons. It looks like all three have violated the agreement- Russia by invading, the others for, well, not assuring Ukraine's security.

In 2004, Victor Yushchenko was elected as president of Ukraine after a repeated runoff election. The repeated vote was ordered after the original election featured massive electoral fraud in favour of Yanukovych. During the election campaign Yushchenko survived an assassination attempt from poisoning. Sound familiar?

You are correct in what you write. For a "fuller picture" it might be helpful to go back to a further point. The confusion with the acronyms was always a pain.

1917, Crimea was part of the Russian Empire.

1921, Lenin made it an "autonomous Republic" with the Russian SFSR, in what eventually became the USSR. So Crimean ASSR part of the Russian SSR, the Ukraine is it's own SSR. Crimea still part of Russia but with a special autonomous status..

1945 After German occupation, Crimea was "downgraded" to The Crimean Oblast, and was stripped of it's autonomous status and was incorporated into the Russian SSR.

1954 Khrushchev transferred it to the Ukrainian SSR. Some say as a "gift" commemorating the 300 year old anniversary of the Cossack State pledging allegiance to the then Tsar of Russia. Other Russia watchers say it was because Khrushchev although Russian born near the Ukr border had a soft spot for Ukr because he witness Stalin's purges there in the 1930.

Correct me if I am wrong. In US terms,
In 1921, Crimea was Long Island with an autonomous status within NY state,
In 1945, Long Island gets downgraded and now part of NY State.
In 1954, Long Island gifted or moved to Connecticut.

Whatever the case. The key point is the lack of clarity and enforcement of the Budapest Agreement.

They did not have any right to take it back. Many have speculated that Putin the reason he gambled that the West would do nothing major when they moved into Crimea was Western behaviour in the Syria Civil War in 2012-13.

 

[GO-NAD!]

You mean Putler will not use nukes, just a threat? And if he just uses battlefield nukes, what then?

It will be nuclear war. Simple as that. Just like there's no such thing as limited pregnancy.

While Putin's inner circle owe their power and riches to him, I have difficulty believing they would follow him down that road.

 

[GO-NAD!]

You are correct in what you write. For a "fuller picture" it might be helpful to go back to a further point. The confusion with the acronyms was always a pain.

1917, Crimea was part of the Russian Empire.

1921, Lenin made it an "autonomous Republic" with the Russian SFSR, in what eventually became the USSR. So Crimean ASSR part of the Russian SSR, the Ukraine is it's own SSR. Crimea still part of Russia but with a special autonomous status..

1945 After German occupation, Crimea was "downgraded" to The Crimean Oblast, and was stripped of it's autonomous status and was incorporated into the Russian SSR.

1954 Khrushchev transferred it to the Ukrainian SSR. Some say as a "gift" commemorating the 300 year old anniversary of the Cossack State pledging allegiance to the then Tsar of Russia. Other Russia watchers say it was because Khrushchev although Russian born near the Ukr border had a soft spot for Ukr because he witness Stalin's purges there in the 1930.

Correct me if I am wrong. In US terms,
In 1921, Crimea was Long Island with an autonomous status within NY state,
In 1945, Long Island gets downgraded and now part of NY State.
In 1954, Long Island gifted or moved to Connecticut.

Whatever the case. The key point is the lack of clarity and enforcement of the Budapest Agreement.

They did not have any right to take it back. Many have speculated that Putin the reason he gambled that the West would do nothing major when they moved into Crimea was Western behaviour in the Syria Civil War in 2012-13.

The cynic in me says the West wasn't prepared to go this far on behalf of "brown" people. Maybe Putin was giving us undue credit for caring about all people equally.

I suspect Putin is playing for pride now. He isn't going to stop unless he's thrown a bone, or is forced out. In order to spare lives and prevent the utter destruction of Ukraine, it might be best if the Donbas region was surrendered to Russia if they agree to withdraw. After which, Ukraine is accepted into the EU and NATO. This would hinge on meeting a minimum standard of governance in keeping with normal western standards. This really should apply to Poland and Hungary, as well, since they've been backsliding into authoritarian practices of late.

 

[Danzilla31]

The cynic in me says the West wasn't prepared to go this far on behalf of "brown" people. Maybe Putin was giving us undue credit for caring about all people equally.

I suspect Putin is playing for pride now. He isn't going to stop unless he's thrown a bone, or is forced out. In order to spare lives and prevent the utter destruction of Ukraine, it might be best if the Donbas region was surrendered to Russia if they agree to withdraw. After which, Ukraine is accepted into the EU and NATO. This would hinge on meeting a minimum standard of governance in keeping with normal western standards. This really should apply to Poland and Hungary, as well, since they've been backsliding into authoritarian practices of late.

I like everything your proposing I just don't think Ukraine will ever be able to go to Nato now. Or really the EU.

It's just too important to the Russians geographically for defense and even with the pipeline system they have for distribution of gas and oil.

Plus Ukraines will never ever forgive or forget this. So you'd be asking Russia to allow a country that has huge grievances against them to be a part of NATO which can then set up military and weaponry right on there border. I just cant see how they will ever let that happen

 

[Danzilla31]

The cynic in me says the West wasn't prepared to go this far on behalf of "brown" people. Maybe Putin was giving us undue credit for caring about all people equally.

I suspect Putin is playing for pride now. He isn't going to stop unless he's thrown a bone, or is forced out. In order to spare lives and prevent the utter destruction of Ukraine, it might be best if the Donbas region was surrendered to Russia if they agree to withdraw. After which, Ukraine is accepted into the EU and NATO. This would hinge on meeting a minimum standard of governance in keeping with normal western standards. This really should apply to Poland and Hungary, as well, since they've been backsliding into authoritarian practices of late.

I think it's pride and desperation. He really went all in on Ukraine If this was poker he just pushed a huge amount of chips into the pot. He's not leaving Ukraine until he achieves what he wants

However I think that overextends him. He will never be able to control Ukraine. He doesn't even have the troops to do it now. And there economy just isn't big enough to absorb an Aghanistan 20 year drawn out conflict

This is a huge gamble and if this plays out long enough may be his downfall in the long run

 

[Danzilla31]

Here's a good article talking about where Putin is at and where he goes from here

'No good outcome': Putin's unraveling war plan leaves Russia, Ukraine in precarious positions

Food and fuel shortages and poor training contribute to morale problems among Russian forces stuck about 15 miles from Kyiv.

www.usatoday.com

I really agree with the articles theory in that his true goal is to cripple Ukraine to the point that they cannot ever join Nato or that Nato can't bring them in. As the article says leave it a buffer zone a wasteland in a sense.

As the article points out the longer it takes him to do that the worse off his overall position becomes. He's really in a no win situation anything he does

 

[3db]

You missed it- they effed with the US election by inserting all kinds of BS on Facebook, etc and now, it's happening there.

I didn't miss it. I expected Putin to do this to sway the people and keep the arguement of going into Ukraine alive for the Russian citizens. If more found out what the real truth is, he would have more civil unrest at home to deal with.

 

[Trell]

 

[SithZedi]

The cynic in me says the West wasn't prepared to go this far on behalf of "brown" people. Maybe Putin was giving us undue credit for caring about all people equally.

I suspect Putin is playing for pride now. He isn't going to stop unless he's thrown a bone, or is forced out. In order to spare lives and prevent the utter destruction of Ukraine, it might be best if the Donbas region was surrendered to Russia if they agree to withdraw. After which, Ukraine is accepted into the EU and NATO. This would hinge on meeting a minimum standard of governance in keeping with normal western standards. This really should apply to Poland and Hungary, as well, since they've been backsliding into authoritarian practices of late.

I've got mucho cynicism in me as well when it comes to politics and business. Regarding Western policy, I don't think color or race is in the mix as much as miscalculation, incompetence, selfishness, and greed. No particular order.

Putin's been saying Russia needs/wants a buffer state(s) i.e. no NATO east of Poland since he took power. Yeltsin, if he were still in alive or in power, i believe would have agreed. If the Russian state exists after Putin, I believe that will still be their position. Any viable long term settlement/negotiations would have to start with that and maybe a reinforced Budapest Agreement. It will be a big S@it sandwich and everyone is going to have to take a bite, Ukraine the biggest. Speed is of the essence because the body count and possibility of miscalculation will just grow.

 

[haraldo]

Putler just stated in a speech: There is no bad intentions towards our neighbors, we need to work together to normalize the situation

 

[mtrycrafts]

.... Just like there's no such thing as limited pregnancy.

....

Abortion?

 

[mtrycrafts]

Putler just stated in a speech: There is no bad intentions towards our neighbors, we need to work together to normalize the situation

Yes, famous last words.

 

[haraldo]

100% of the russian aviation industry is likely to come to a halt, it will be impossible to fly in russia or with any russian airline. This is basically the end of the russian aviation industry.

 

[mtrycrafts]

100% of the russian aviation industry is likely to come to a halt, it will be impossible to fly in russia or with any russian airline. This is basically the end of the russian aviation industry.

Just wow. Very complex industry. Everyone suffers in the end.

 

[TLS Guy]

This article really explains what we are up against, and why we are stuck with this or worse for years to come.

 

[haraldo]

 

[haraldo]

defendukraine.org

According to defendukraine: The US, UK and EU should implement the following sanctions without delay.
1. Cancel the one-month grace period of US initial sanctions.

2. Sanction all Belarusian and Russian banks, freeze all assets, and put them all on the US Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list.

3. Request Visa and MasterCard to halt transactions of their credit and debit cards issued by all Russian banks.

4. Impose restrictions on ruble clearing.

5. Disconnect all Russian and Belorussian banks from SWIFT, not just a “select” number.

6. Impose a blanket ban on US public sector pension funds holding Russian assets.

7. Impose total export controls, including on technology/electronics.

8. Ban trading with all Russian energy and commodity companies.

9. Seize all crypto-wallets linked to Russia.

10. Sanction all Duma members and all members of the Russian government.

11. Sanction the top 100 Russian oligarchs, not just a few.

 

[Trell]

Mastercard, Visa suspend operations in Russia after invasion

The suspensions are a follow-up to more limited moves earlier in the week to block financial institutions from the networks that serve as arteries for the payments system.

www.politico.com

>>>
NEW YORK — Mastercard and Visa are suspending their operations in Russia, the companies said Saturday, in the latest blow to the country’s financial system after its invasion of Ukraine.

Mastercard said cards issued by Russian banks will no longer be supported by its network and any card issued outside the country will not work at Russian stores or ATMs.

“We don’t take this decision lightly,” Mastercard said in a statement, adding that it made the move after discussions with customers, partners and governments.

Visa said it’s working with clients and partners in Russia to cease all Visa transactions over the coming days.

“We are compelled to act following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and the unacceptable events that we have witnessed,” Visa Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Al Kelly said in a statement.

The suspensions are a follow-up to more limited moves earlier in the week to block financial institutions from the networks that serve as arteries for the payments system. Russian people have already been hit hard by heavy sanctions and financial penalties imposed by the U.S. government and others.
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[Trell]

Republicans, in effect, supporting Putins invasion of Ukraine and showing that they don't care.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/03/05/republicans-federal-spending-ukraine-vaccines/?itid=lk_fullstory

>>>
Senate Republicans have issued a series of early threats against a still-forming deal to fund the federal government, signaling that they could delay the package — which may include emergency aid to Ukraine — over concerns about excessive spending and vaccine mandates.

The early warnings, delivered in two letters to Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), could slow lawmakers’ time-sensitive work as Russia’s incursion into Ukraine is intensifying — all while Washington faces a March 11 deadline to fund federal agencies and avoid a government shutdown.
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