Sorry, not meant to be snippy!
I write that way a lot, so I apologize.
I usually recommend value/reliability for my client's and since most people are not in dedicated theaters, but multi-purpose rooms, the value of a $5,000+ projector won't be able to be appreciated. I do like the Sim2, DP, and PD products, but lean towards JVC RS series as a great benchmark product. Yet, at value/quality level, the AE4000 is tough to beat, and I've heard from a couple of RS owners, that if they were to buy right now, the quality difference between their RS35 (I believe) and the AE4000 is not at all worth the price difference. Granted, I haven't seen this myself to compare head to head.
Now, I liked that link you provided, because it really says what I was pointing out. The Samsung is a business class projector, which has better specifications for color and contrast than many business class projectors. The typical home theater projector is able to deliver about 300-500 lumens of output after calibration, but typically LED has the ability for the diodes to be individually calibrated to exact color specifications at the manufacturing level so little to not change in the projector settings may be necessary.
All that means is that if LED can deliver 1,000 lumens for $1,300 from a business class projector, then that same engine, within a larger home theater case, with better video processing, and a dynamic iris, combined with 1080p should be available for an additional $1,000-$2,000 realistically.
Keep in mind, I've been moderating the forums over at Projector Central for about 6 years now and when 1080p projectors came to be ($30,000 Sony?) I predicted that within 3 years they would be below $3,000, and that was dead on. I can definitely be wrong (and snippy about my predictions!), but I promise you that the reason we don't see $3,000 (and less) home theater projectors is not because it can't be done, but for the reason you said: "if companies make their money on replacing the lamps in the cheap projectors, why on Earth would they put out a cheap, high performing product that doesn't need a lamp replaced for several years?"
That's the whole reason.
Don't get me wrong, but these aren't lamps that only need to be replaced after several years, these are 50,000 products. You replace the projector. 5 hours a day = 2,000 hours a year = 25 years with a LED engine.
For pure brightness, traditional lamps will remain better indefinitely.
For economics to the consumer, lower power consumption, higher reliability, more accurate color... LED is going to become the standard in home theater. I am willing to bet money on it (not an offer
), I'm that confident that this will be the case. It will be out there, we will see it in the next few years.
I think Sony is the perfect example: Their first 1080p was $30K and within a few years better 1080p was under $3K. A 90% drop in price in just a few years and 1080p as the standard instead of one make/model/manufacturer.
A few years and we will see LED as a driving standard.
For OLED, I think small dispalys will have a hook in it for quality, but I'm not convinced on larger displays. OLET (organic light emitting transitor) may be the option. But, there are competing technologies, and the economic viability of OLED is questionable, but I have hope, it does look great.
UHD displays probably will come around, but I continue to think they are pointless. Blu-ray took 10 years of development to get where it is now with about 3,000 titles and I was a huge supporter of it the whole way. 4K displays, if they come out, will upconvert Blu-ray, but we won't see them as anything approachign a mainstream product for 7-10 years minimum.
Autostereoscopic displays are not coming. As soon as you see the best one on the market, you will realize why. I've seen them, I've researched them, I've put my hands on them. They are a horrendous product. They WILL be used for advertising, because they are frickin' cool looking!
OLED, Autostereoscopic, and UHD will all be well behind LED lamp based technologies. Autostereocopic being last, OLED (large format) perhaps being a no-show, and UHD displays perhaps coming to consumers in 7-10 years.
I'm putting out my predictions, and I'm sure some are wrong. Heck, I HOPE some are wrong! But, I will say why I believe things are not what others think they are and back up why I am making my predictions.