On Trump

[dlaloum]

The rest of the World trusted the US (to whatever degree) before, why would it need to take decades since nobody before or after Trump is similar/same? Refusing to trust anyone from US government because of one person isn't rational. OTOH, I don't trust anyone in Washington DC, especially Congress- they have known the American public/voter approval rating has been 20% or below for a helluva long time, but they don't give a rat's ass and refuse to change. Well, they refuse to improve- they change, but for the worse.

A lot of us want term limits and no hands-on investing, but expecting them to police themselves is naiive at best, stupid, at worst.

It took the great depression to drive substantive social/policy changes.... which ultimately led to 50+ years of prosperity....
Reagan and his mates brought in the policies that destroyed that, dismantled the systems / infrastructure that generated the prosperity... it has then taken another 40 years for the economy to "wind down", and for the policies instituted in the 1930's to 1950's to be wound down, sidelined, or eliminated.....

Sadly, I don't believe Trump alone is enough of a shock to the system, to drive the groundswell of support needed for the economic changes required to bring back true prosperity (and strengthen democracy).

The great depression led to an economic, political and social revolution... there are various forms of revolution, but one thing they almost always have in common, is how dire things have to get for the average "working man", before the masses get mobilised. The changes of the early 20th century were relatively bloodless .... other revolutions have not been so benign.

 

[dlaloum]

If murder in international waters isn't enough, how about piracy?

https://www.cnn.com/webview/politics/live-news/trump-administration-boat-strike-ndaa-vote-12-10-25?cid=android_app

The ICC wheels turn every so slowly... 10 years is not unusual...(or more)

By the time any case against Trump truly gets going, he will be dead and buried.

The same however cannot be said for his cronies.... who may well ultimately find themselves unable to travel outside the USA due to international ICC warrants....

 

[dlaloum]

I'm not sure most Americans appreciate how much damage the Trump administration has inflicted on their relationship with traditional allies. And, if it can be salvaged, it could take decades.

Matt Gurney: 'We will never fucking trust you again'

Some blunt talk for our American neighbours at the Halifax International Security Forum.

open.substack.com

Trust built up over 80+ years...

All the international friends and allies, who accepted American hegemony in everything from Defence (NATO) to international trade (using the US$ as reserve currency, etc...) - are now looking at the USA as an unpredictable and fickle international participant...

New systems and infrastructure are being worked on which are independent of the USA - these take time to put into place, but ultimately the rest of the world will move the USA out of the center/hub of interactions, and institute processes that are not dependent on the USA and minimally or not dependent on USA influence.

Decades is the minimum it would take to recover from this, if it can be recovered from at all.

 

[dlaloum]

I think recovery will be quick after Trump leaves. Right now though it's apologetic like so sorry for you America.

I doubt it.

De Gaul always mistrusted the USA, and fought to have France and Europe independent of USA influence - he lost that political battle (although France always remained somewhat more independent that most of the rest of the EU).

Current events are effectively proving DeGaul right - and the EU is taking notice.
Alternate financial pathways independent of the US$ have been developing - but now they are likely to be a priority for US "allies" as well as enemies...

I doubt the USA will be able to return to its central hegemonic control of the international institutions....

 

[mtrycrafts]

Dept of War was brought up again. Couldn't stop LOL. Who the hell decided that was a good name? ...

The FOX TV star running the department.

 

[mtrycrafts]

The ICC wheels turn every so slowly... 10 years is not unusual...(or more)

By the time any case against Trump truly gets going, he will be dead and buried.

The same however cannot be said for his cronies.... who may well ultimately find themselves unable to travel outside the USA due to international ICC warrants....

Saw some newsfeed today about the US sanction on members of ICC, at least I think it was very current news.
Those members are up the creeks, bank cards being cx'ed, accounts frozen, etc.
Maybe connected.

 

[dlaloum]

Saw some newsfeed today about the US sanction on members of ICC, at least I think it was very current news.
Those members are up the creeks, bank cards being cx'ed, accounts frozen, etc.
Maybe connected.

Yes, it demonstrates the power that accrues to being the hub of the global economy...

But in demonstrating that power, it also demonstrates why that power needs to be used carefully, judiciously - otherwise, the other participants in maintaining that system, simply turn around and sponsor an alternate system, without the US at its hub - and then that power evaporates.

Mastercard, VISA, Amex are all USA based... but there are EU based alternatives... (and I am sure other International options) and Trump is generating the needed impetus for them to massively grow their market share.

 

[Mikado463]

It took the great depression to drive substantive social/policy changes.... which ultimately led to 50+ years of prosperity....
Reagan and his mates brought in the policies that destroyed that, dismantled the systems / infrastructure that generated the prosperity... it has then taken another 40 years for the economy to "wind down", and for the policies instituted in the 1930's to 1950's to be wound down, sidelined, or eliminated.....

Sadly, I don't believe Trump alone is enough of a shock to the system, to drive the groundswell of support needed for the economic changes required to bring back true prosperity (and strengthen democracy).

The great depression led to an economic, political and social revolution... there are various forms of revolution, but one thing they almost always have in common, is how dire things have to get for the average "working man", before the masses get mobilised. The changes of the early 20th century were relatively bloodless .... other revolutions have not been so benign.

Thank the Lord I'm in the '4th Quarter' and NO overtime.......

 

[dlaloum]

Thank the Lord I'm in the '4th Quarter' and NO overtime.......

A lot of us on here are "greybeards"....

 

[highfigh]

Trump didn't and couldn't do all this damage by himself. After he's gone, many of his enablers will still be around and in positions of power.

You're right, but I'm pretty sure the enablers will be gone soon after he leaves office.

 

[highfigh]

It took the great depression to drive substantive social/policy changes.... which ultimately led to 50+ years of prosperity....
Reagan and his mates brought in the policies that destroyed that, dismantled the systems / infrastructure that generated the prosperity... it has then taken another 40 years for the economy to "wind down", and for the policies instituted in the 1930's to 1950's to be wound down, sidelined, or eliminated.....

Sadly, I don't believe Trump alone is enough of a shock to the system, to drive the groundswell of support needed for the economic changes required to bring back true prosperity (and strengthen democracy).

The great depression led to an economic, political and social revolution... there are various forms of revolution, but one thing they almost always have in common, is how dire things have to get for the average "working man", before the masses get mobilised. The changes of the early 20th century were relatively bloodless .... other revolutions have not been so benign.

You completely left out the effects WWII had on the productivity/prosperity of the US- if that hadn't started, the Depression would have continued and recovery would have taken years. I don't remember hearing or reading anyone's comments about how long, but it defilitely would have continued past 1945/1946.

"Bloodless revolutions"? What about the Bolshevic Revolution? Don't forget, Hitler rose to power in a revolt against after the Nazi Party came to power in 1932. The anti-Semitism didn't start at that time, it ramped up after the (National Socialist) German Worker's Party at the end of WWI.

Every time the 'workers' become angry enough, ALWAYS because of organizers, they want a revolution and every time they gain influence in government, they force everyone to do what they want until the pendalum swings back to the other side.

Moderation would be a good thing to try- at this point, it's too dangerous and destructive to have wild tidal shifts.

 

[GO-NAD!]

You're right, but I'm pretty sure the enablers will be gone soon after he leaves office.

I hope you're right.