The math on the payback of the bulbs is pretty easy to do, as I did it this weekend after noticing 60w LED bulbs available for right around $10 each. Given that the main room in my house has a light fixture with four 60w bulbs, and it's probably on 8 hours a day (probably more), and that energy here is around $0.10 a kW/hour, the saving for me meant that the LED bulbs broke even after 222 days of use. So, 8 months after getting them they're already paid for, and that's discounting the fact that the incandescent bulbs would be past their lifespan already during that period and have to be replaced.
If utilities started to charge more, that only shifts the balance even more towards the LED lights as they'll pay off much quicker. They are a bit expensive now, but getting much cheaper, and will only continue on that route. I will probably start to replace some of the lights bulbs in our next house when we move, and replace the less used ones as the LEDs come down in price.