J

Jordan

Audiophyte
It seems that my predictions about this subject are comeing true. I always thought that nothing could replace CD and it seems so. Mobile (mp3,wma,ogg,flac) could never replace CD no matter how many songs you can fit on a little device becasue they are all limited to holding a certain amount of songs, and If you tend to collect music or are one of those frequent visitors to downloading music sites then you would soon realize that a small little player has a very limited storage. I myself know that if all my music was digitized to some lossless or lossy state of compression it would well exceed the Tereabyte mark makeing mobility useless as the size of the device would have to be massive.


I think I'll stick with the CD & not bother even looking for a player to play any higher or better type of media as there isnt one that will make any differece to my music listening needs.

Thxs guys Jordan
 
Buckeyefan 1

Buckeyefan 1

Audioholic Ninja
Jordan said:
It seems that my predictions about this subject are comeing true. I always thought that nothing could replace CD and it seems so. Mobile (mp3,wma,ogg,flac) could never replace CD no matter how many songs you can fit on a little device becasue they are all limited to holding a certain amount of songs, and If you tend to collect music or are one of those frequent visitors to downloading music sites then you would soon realize that a small little player has a very limited storage. I myself know that if all my music was digitized to some lossless or lossy state of compression it would well exceed the Tereabyte mark makeing mobility useless as the size of the device would have to be massive.


I think I'll stick with the CD & not bother even looking for a player to play any higher or better type of media as there isnt one that will make any differece to my music listening needs.

Thxs guys Jordan
What? http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APPLE/WebObjects/AppleStore?family=iPod&cid=AOSA10000015660&siteID=ukRUajDh*KU-P*ieu/V9wVVcAtsCkmrR5A

It will only be a matter of time when those become lossless, and triple in capacity. I don't know many that even know 45,000 songs, let alone 15,000.
 
Duffinator

Duffinator

Audioholic Field Marshall
Jordan, who says you have to store ALL of your music on a portable device? I have a 4GB iPod mini that holds close to 1,000 songs and it's more than plenty for my needs. I can go on a long business trip and never have to listen to the same song twice. But if you feel like you need to carry more than 15,000 songs you better wait. ;)
 
M

MDS

Audioholic Spartan
I currently have ~5,000 uncompressed WAV files (average 50 MB) and they consume 200 GB. 1 terabyte is 5 times that or ~25,000 WAVS.

I have the same 5,000 songs at 192 Kbps MP3 and they take up about 30 GB. 1 terabyte is more than 30 times that and would store over 150,000 songs at that bitrate. I think the majority of people are safe with the current storage capacity of hard drives and mp3 players.
 
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BMXTRIX

BMXTRIX

Audioholic Warlord
I would say that when holographic storage becomes a standard we may see the music download become omnipotent.

Terrabyte? Sure, we can do that - and in the size of an iPod. Just not yet.

Keep in mind that just a few years ago a digital music server with a 40GB drive was sold for over $2,000 now a 60GB iPod... 400 bucks.

People keep talking 'quality', and completely missing what 99% of when most people listen to music. In their cars, in the office (radio usually), while exercising, on headphones.

A very small number of music listeners do so in a nice room (yes, many people on THIS board do this) - but I would expect far more do this type of listening when watching movies and HDTV instead of just listening to music.

CD is not dead, but DVD-A and SACD are an almost worthless product. The market push is towards portable and convenient audio not as much a quality issue. For quality, the home video market is much more prevalent. But, I can't imagine that we won't see the audio disc and the music store more or less disappear in the next 30 years or so as all music moves online.
 
Buckeyefan 1

Buckeyefan 1

Audioholic Ninja
I can't imagine that we won't see the audio disc and the music store more or less disappear in the next 30 years or so as all music moves online.
You're on the right track, but divide that figure by 10. I don't know any hs and college kids buying cd's - especially in a music store. Their entire collections are either on a pc hard drive, on an Ipod, or on cd-r's in their car. And even those are old school (cd-r) now b/c of Ipod connectivity in vehicles.
 

Buckle-meister

Audioholic Field Marshall
Buckeyefan 1 said:
I don't know any hs and college kids buying cd's - especially in a music store. Their entire collections are either on a pc hard drive, on an Ipod, or on cd-r's in their car...
Who says progress moves in an upward direction? :(
 
Rob Babcock

Rob Babcock

Moderator
Where are they getting their music from in the first place if not from the CD? I realize some may be downloaded, but I'd be shocked if even 5% of the extent music available on CD is also available for download. At least legally. If someone is merely buying the CD and ripping it, you can't really say the CD is being replaced at all.

For those who are creating collections of primarily pirated/stolen downloads, then bear in mind this isn't sustainable. While those wishing to pirate music may always have a technological lead on those trying to secure it, the RIAA has been somewhat effective at persecuting the less sophisticated and technically savvy. Relying on illegal downloads is getting riskier day by day.

Here's the realistic test of whether CDs are going by the wayside: how many pieces of music have you tried to buy that aren't available on CD but are downloadable? Compare that to the reverse situation and you'll have your answer.
 
D

doomguardian

Audioholic
MP3 won't take over....

DVD-AUDIO is just around the corner.:D

I already have it in my computer. (XFI-Xtreme music:D )
 
Buckeyefan 1

Buckeyefan 1

Audioholic Ninja
Here's the realistic test of whether CDs are going by the wayside: how many pieces of music have you tried to buy that aren't available on CD but are downloadable? Compare that to the reverse situation and you'll have your answer.
This site has over 240 million files available for download. That would be one heck of a brick and mortar music store.

http://www.download-it-free.com/itunes/
 
Hi Ho

Hi Ho

Audioholic Samurai
doomguardian said:
MP3 won't take over....

DVD-AUDIO is just around the corner.:D

I already have it in my computer. (XFI-Xtreme music:D )
DVD-Audio has been around for several years and it hasn't exactly taken off...
 
hifiman

hifiman

Audioholic
Rob Babcock said:
Where are they getting their music from in the first place if not from the CD? I realize some may be downloaded, but I'd be shocked if even 5% of the extent music available on CD is also available for download. At least legally. If someone is merely buying the CD and ripping it, you can't really say the CD is being replaced at all.

For those who are creating collections of primarily pirated/stolen downloads, then bear in mind this isn't sustainable. While those wishing to pirate music may always have a technological lead on those trying to secure it, the RIAA has been somewhat effective at persecuting the less sophisticated and technically savvy. Relying on illegal downloads is getting riskier day by day.

Here's the realistic test of whether CDs are going by the wayside: how many pieces of music have you tried to buy that aren't available on CD but are downloadable? Compare that to the reverse situation and you'll have your answer.

I understand what you are saying, but I disagree. I don't see CDs disappearing overnight, but they will go the way of the Dodo soon enough. Legal downloading is in its infancy. You are right in saying that there is lots of music that you can't get through downloads, but you will in the near future. It took CDs awhile to get just about anything one could want, but it did happen. And if I wanted to get picky I could point out that there's still plenty of vinyl that never made it on CD. That didn't lessen CD's status in and of itself. Downloading is here to stay, but has a lot of growth in its future and will overtake music sales that are distributed by more traditional means and mediums.

As for the statement that the act of people buying CDs to rip being an indicator of the current and near-future importance of the CD, I once again understand where you're coming from, but disagree. More and more CDs are just a convenient conveyance to get the files from point A (point of CD purchase or at the very least, tempory possesion) to point B (mass storage, whether it be hard drive or flash memory). Some of the several scenarios include purchasing a CD, ripping, and then reselling back to the store for resale in their used bins, or the original purchaser resells online at any number of sites. Or perhaps borrowing a CD from a friend to rip, and passing the CD along to the next. Even if I choose neither option, the CD, in my situation at least is still essentially replaced. I have all my CDs on a hard drive and will likely never open the original CDs (the ones I choose not to sell) again, which are now relegated to the status of "hard copies."

Even if something unforeseeable happens and downloading comes to a grinding halt I would expect DVDs to replace CDs. Why not? DVD players are more plentiful than CD players and they're dirt cheap. And how many years have CDs imitated DVDs anyhow? I can't count the number of enhanced CDs that I have that contain photos, videos, web links, etc. It just makes sense now that DVDs are so pervasive.

I consider myself to be a "grounded" audiophile, meaning I appreciate quality without going overboard on all the hype that surrounds our hobby. I have been an early adopter of every technology that has come out since CD and DCC. I was one of the first in line for DVD-A and SACD. It sure turned into a joke in no time at all, but I wish it would have caught on. The reality is that the minority of us who consider ourselves audiophiles do not in any way dictate what will be successful in the market place. Our numbers are far too few and our wallets much to thin. The average consumer dictates what will be successful and for music it begins and ends with MP3.
 
Buckeyefan 1

Buckeyefan 1

Audioholic Ninja
I have been an early adopter of every technology that has come out since CD and DCC. I was one of the first in line for DVD-A and SACD. It sure turned into a joke in no time at all, but I wish it would have caught on. The reality is that the minority of us who consider ourselves audiophiles do not in any way dictate what will be successful in the market place. Our numbers are far too few and our wallets much to thin. The average consumer dictates what will be successful and for music it begins and ends with MP3.
Exactly. I remember when laserdisc came out. I was so anxious to get one. I waited the normal several months for it to catch on. It never did. I kept up with the latest A/V publications. Still nothing. To this day I still don't own a laserdisc player.

When DAT came out, I was really excited. The technology was as great as BETA, but this was sure to catch on. I was big into recording at the time. I loved transferring music onto tape - eq'ing it to perfection. Mixing songs for parties or what not. I waited for it to catch on. Nothing. I remember going into an audio store and seeing a DAT unit on clearance for $99. The same unit started out near $1000. I passed by it - sadly. For that was the end of recording, and the beginning of the cd revolution. It just didn't make sense to copy a cd to an inferior analog tape.

Lets hope HD DVD and Blu-ray don't go the same route of DAT and laserdisc. I do feel CD is on it's way out, primarily because of a loss of interest. Yes, we play them, but are we buying them? Are we even buying DVD's? I know I'm waiting for HD discs TO RENT. I'm more than happy to see Blockbuster buy them and sell them used - cheap.
 
Duffinator

Duffinator

Audioholic Field Marshall
BMXTRIX said:
People keep talking 'quality', and completely missing what 99% of when most people listen to music. In their cars, in the office (radio usually), while exercising, on headphones.

A very small number of music listeners do so in a nice room (yes, many people on THIS board do this) - but I would expect far more do this type of listening when watching movies and HDTV instead of just listening to music.

CD is not dead, but DVD-A and SACD are an almost worthless product. The market push is towards portable and convenient audio not as much a quality issue. For quality, the home video market is much more prevalent. But, I can't imagine that we won't see the audio disc and the music store more or less disappear in the next 30 years or so as all music moves online.
Excellent point.

When I got my iPod almost two years ago I thought I'd download lots of music and pretty much stop buying CD's. But you know what, having my entire music collection at my finger tips has renewed my interest in music and I'm buying more CD's than I have in years. I buy a couple of songs online each month but not many. In many cases it's still cheaper to buy a CD (if you like the artist) than to download a complete album. Plus I have the higher quality file just in case I ever think I'm an audiophile and can tell the difference between CD and a 192 kbs mp3. :p I'm only buying online songs from new artist I'm not sure about like the Killers. After downloading two of their songs I went out and bought the CD.
 
M

MDS

Audioholic Spartan
hifiman said:
Even if I choose neither option, the CD, in my situation at least is still essentially replaced. I have all my CDs on a hard drive and will likely never open the original CDs (the ones I choose not to sell) again, which are now relegated to the status of "hard copies."
That's kind of my take on things too. I continue to buy CDs and will for the foreseeable future. I consider the CD to be my physical 'archive' of the music. In other words, I buy the CD, enter all the information into a database I created, then rip the songs (every one that I would rate at least a 2 on a scale from 1 to 5), do minor editing if necessary, and save the WAVs on a 300 GB external hard drive. I then transcode the WAVs to 192 kbps MP3 and save the MP3s on another machine - my 'media hub' that I use as the source for streaming the music.

So I have the physical medium, should I ever need it again, stored in my office and I have the edited wav file from which I can transcode to any lossy format I choose and I will never have to rip the CD again unless my hard drive fails and I haven't been keeping up with my backup plan.

While I do think that the lossy compression formats are often 'good enough', I prefer to have the original uncompressed WAV too. I've ripped enough CDs and edited enough audio over the last 10 years to know that using an automated process that rips and transcodes in one shot is not good enough. The mix and mastering engineers sometimes put the track markers in the wrong place, sometimes there are two separate tracks that are really one song (eg. Threshold/Jet Airliner by Steve Miller) and they need to be combined into one, sometimes two separate tracks need to be split, some have little to no fade-in/out, etc - the problems are numerous and I don't trust the people that 'rip' the songs for the online stores to be as detail oriented as am I.

I also don't like the trend toward subscription based services. I want to be able to hear what I want, when I want and some of my stuff is semi obscure and there is little public demand for it (say 80s electronica) so it won't show up on those stores in the near future or maybe ever. I have two LPs of that stuff that were never released on CD and probably will never be released. It's gone forever if I don't digitize it myself. I am building my own digital archive of music so that I can still listen to Dio - Holy Diver when I am 80 years old. :)

I predict that if DRM really takes hold and CDs fall by the wayside, the used CD stores business will double or triple overnight. CDs at least give us music lovers the freedom to preserve our music without having to rely on the music labels to throw us a bone and release 'old' music that the general public is no longer interested in.
 
BMXTRIX

BMXTRIX

Audioholic Warlord
Let's even take it a bit further... Music that begins as digital download may be encrypted with digital rights management alogrithms that actually work fairly well. This will allow the music providers to allow copying and playback only on allowed devices. Bringing down piracy... potentially.

A legal user won't be impacted at all as players will be setup to recognize the DRM and load, play, etc. the music fine. But, as soon as it is put up online for free... no love.

CDs... gone. I think the big joke is DVD-A and SACD which probably isn't even in the homes of many recording artists, let alone the average music listener.

This does have the potential for being the same track that movies may be passing down. HD video may never be a solid success on discs, especially if M$ has its way. A format war followed by availability to use your existing PC and a XBox 360. I can see that taking off really quick. A lot of people perfectly happy with DVD - and no real push for HD discs. The future will be interesting for sure.
 
WmAx

WmAx

Audioholic Samurai
BMXTRIX said:
Let's even take it a bit further... Music that begins as digital download may be encrypted with digital rights management alogrithms that actually work fairly well. This will allow the music providers to allow copying and playback only on allowed devices. Bringing down piracy... potentially.
{Editorial Style Rant Mode: ON}

DRM can not work to stop anyone that actually wishes to bypass it. No DRM can do this, nor is there reason to believe it ever can. So far, and for the forseeable future, it only affects the legitimate buyer; which is incredibly short-sighted on part of the people forcing this DRM encumbered material. As for 'piracy', there is no credible evidence that their is any significant impact from 'piracy' in itself. Piracy in one form or another has always existed, and probably always will: it is built into the business model to be covered under the costs of business. In fact, the music and movie industries are making a killing now, as they always have. News to the contrary is always from the industry itself, using only half-truths to build a case; but these fall apart under scrutiny every time. I would like to see the music industry go down in flames.... with all of the majors closing their doors. It would not mean the end of music; where their is a demand for a product, the product will be available. What it would mean is a different set of distrubutors that are actually competing to deliver products at a price and in a form that the consumers desire. It would be win-win for the consumers; and lose-lose(much deserved) for the current major distributors.

{Editorial Style Rant Mode: OFF}

-Chris
 
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BMXTRIX

BMXTRIX

Audioholic Warlord
;) I agree totally - except there have been many who have wanted to copy the VCR+ encoding algorithm and to this time that code has not been hacked. I do believe that it may be possible - at some point - to have DRM that can be either really secure - or dynamic. If a download must occur over the Internet, then that download can be tied to a dynamic DRM.

Yes, it does affect users - but it really is an infancy product as well. I'm no talkin' next year. I'm thinking 15 years .... 20 years out. Not that it doesn't scare me a bit.
 
WmAx

WmAx

Audioholic Samurai
BMXTRIX said:
;) I agree totally - except there have been many who have wanted to copy the VCR+ encoding algorithm and to this time that code has not been hacked.
You mean the scheduling system for recording programs? To have something 'hacked' it must first garner enough attention from the appropriate people. If their is not much demand, one can not expect the best effort to be put into defeating the protections.
I do believe that it may be possible - at some point - to have DRM that can be either really secure - or dynamic. If a download must occur over the Internet, then that download can be tied to a dynamic DRM.
I don't see how it can ever be possible. Let's assume the encryption is used is bullet-proof. If the material ever gets decoded for the veiwer to use, that means that the decryption key(s) are in the device, and that at some point it is converted to a readable form, whether it's a series of circuits on the PCB, or even if it's at the display controller end. Look at it from the real pirate perspective: let's assume that video never entered a direct analog state, that it always used a secure digital path, and not even the microchips used had exposed circuits with unencrypted data at any point: when it finally gets sent to the display, it is creating easily readable voltages to control the screen. The real pirate would, if they had no other choice, read this directly from a display controller, converting it back to a useful digital format that had little or no noticable degradation in quality.

Rediculously, all of this effort in DRM is to stop a casual user from enjoying his or her fair use rights and preserve an outdated distribution model. I am beginning to think that most forms of DRM should be illegal in order to protect consumers.

-Chris
 
R

rollinrocker

Audioholic
WmAx said:
No one of credibility has shown an audible difference for musical program on any equipment, regardless of cost.

-Chris
Anyone who cannot hear the diff between sacd/dvd-audio and redbook cd is not listening.
 
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