Rob Babcock said:
Where are they getting their music from in the first place if not from the CD? I realize some may be downloaded, but I'd be shocked if even 5% of the extent music available on CD is also available for download. At least legally. If someone is merely buying the CD and ripping it, you can't really say the CD is being replaced at all.
For those who are creating collections of primarily pirated/stolen downloads, then bear in mind this isn't sustainable. While those wishing to pirate music may always have a technological lead on those trying to secure it, the RIAA has been somewhat effective at persecuting the less sophisticated and technically savvy. Relying on illegal downloads is getting riskier day by day.
Here's the realistic test of whether CDs are going by the wayside: how many pieces of music have you tried to buy that aren't available on CD but are downloadable? Compare that to the reverse situation and you'll have your answer.
I understand what you are saying, but I disagree. I don't see CDs disappearing overnight, but they will go the way of the Dodo soon enough. Legal downloading is in its infancy. You are right in saying that there is lots of music that you can't get through downloads, but you will in the near future. It took CDs awhile to get just about anything one could want, but it did happen. And if I wanted to get picky I could point out that there's still plenty of vinyl that never made it on CD. That didn't lessen CD's status in and of itself. Downloading is here to stay, but has a lot of growth in its future and will overtake music sales that are distributed by more traditional means and mediums.
As for the statement that the act of people buying CDs to rip being an indicator of the current and near-future importance of the CD, I once again understand where you're coming from, but disagree. More and more CDs are just a convenient conveyance to get the files from point A (point of CD purchase or at the very least, tempory possesion) to point B (mass storage, whether it be hard drive or flash memory). Some of the several scenarios include purchasing a CD, ripping, and then reselling back to the store for resale in their used bins, or the original purchaser resells online at any number of sites. Or perhaps borrowing a CD from a friend to rip, and passing the CD along to the next. Even if I choose neither option, the CD, in my situation at least is still essentially replaced. I have all my CDs on a hard drive and will likely never open the original CDs (the ones I choose not to sell) again, which are now relegated to the status of "hard copies."
Even if something unforeseeable happens and downloading comes to a grinding halt I would expect DVDs to replace CDs. Why not? DVD players are more plentiful than CD players and they're dirt cheap. And how many years have CDs imitated DVDs anyhow? I can't count the number of enhanced CDs that I have that contain photos, videos, web links, etc. It just makes sense now that DVDs are so pervasive.
I consider myself to be a "grounded" audiophile, meaning I appreciate quality without going overboard on all the hype that surrounds our hobby. I have been an early adopter of every technology that has come out since CD and DCC. I was one of the first in line for DVD-A and SACD. It sure turned into a joke in no time at all, but I wish it would have caught on. The reality is that the minority of us who consider ourselves audiophiles do not in any way dictate what will be successful in the market place. Our numbers are far too few and our wallets much to thin. The average consumer dictates what will be successful and for music it begins and ends with MP3.
