How close are we to WWIII?

3db

3db

Audioholic Slumlord
Here's a twist to the MOU but this hasn't been verified.... I also like Trita as well, very well balanced.



There is lots of history discussed here about the various relationships Israel had with Iran, Turkey, and Egypt. At the 17 minute mark, Trita says exactly the thing I have learned from this and other analysts I have watched andf repeated here countless times. Israel wants to become the dominant power in the region and changes the narrative tp give them a plausible reason to attack them. Iran can wipe the floor with Israel but it chooses not do and negotiate. However, if history is an indicator, the Turks are different story. The turks will wipe the floor with Israel if Israel is that dumb to wage war against them.

The picture in the middle east is changing and changing fast.
 
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Nondemo01

Audioholic
Here's a twist to the MOU but this hasn't been verified.... I also like Trita as well, very well balanced.



There is lots of history discussed here about the various relationships Israel had with Iran, Turkey, and Egypt. At the 17 minute mark, Trita says exactly the thing I have learned from this and other analysts I have watched andf repeated here countless times. Israel wants to become the dominant power in the region and changes the narrative tp give them a plausible reason to attack them. Iran can wipe the floor with Israel but it chooses not do and negotiate. However, if history is an indicator, the Turks are different story. The turks will wipe the floor with Israel if Israel is that dumb to wage war against them.

The picture in the middle east is changing and changing fast.
This reads less like analysis and more like another attempt to excuse every actor hostile to Israel, including past takes that come dangerously close to cheering on Hamas and Hezbollah. You can criticize Israel without romanticizing terrorist proxies or pretending Iran’s regime is some restrained negotiating partner. The Islamic Republic is a brutal, murderous regime that has spent decades exporting terror, crushing its own people, and hiding behind proxies. “Iran/Turkey will wipe the floor with Israel” is not strategy; it’s fan fiction.

War isn’t a bar fight. Its capabilities, alliances, geography, escalation risk, and consequences.

And while you’re romanticizing Iran as some restrained regional actor, people like Masih Alinejad are living proof of what that regime actually is. She survived the Islamic Republic, escaped to the West, and still had Iranian-backed operatives allegedly trying to kidnap or murder her on American soil. That’s not “restraint.” That’s transnational terrorism.

So spare me the “Iran just wants peace” routine. The same regime that funds and enables proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah also hunts women, journalists, dissidents, and human-rights activists for the crime of telling the truth.

If your analysis keeps finding excuses for that regime, maybe it isn’t analysis.
 
N

Nondemo01

Audioholic
Like the trajectory Ben-Gvir and Netanyahu are currently on hunting down and killing civilians. :rolleyes:

Start backing up your claims with verified information instead of just what you claim.
Why? You're not.

Ah yes, forums, where arguing with a fool proves there are two.
 
3db

3db

Audioholic Slumlord
This reads less like analysis and more like another attempt to excuse every actor hostile to Israel, including past takes that come dangerously close to cheering on Hamas and Hezbollah. You can criticize Israel without romanticizing terrorist proxies or pretending Iran’s regime is some restrained negotiating partner. The Islamic Republic is a brutal, murderous regime that has spent decades exporting terror, crushing its own people, and hiding behind proxies. “Iran/Turkey will wipe the floor with Israel” is not strategy; it’s fan fiction.

War isn’t a bar fight. Its capabilities, alliances, geography, escalation risk, and consequences.

And while you’re romanticizing Iran as some restrained regional actor, people like Masih Alinejad are living proof of what that regime actually is. She survived the Islamic Republic, escaped to the West, and still had Iranian-backed operatives allegedly trying to kidnap or murder her on American soil. That’s not “restraint.” That’s transnational terrorism.

So spare me the “Iran just wants peace” routine. The same regime that funds and enables proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah also hunts women, journalists, dissidents, and human-rights activists for the crime of telling the truth.

If your analysis keeps finding excuses for that regime, maybe it isn’t analysis.
Trita Parsi has been studying Israel and their relationships with other countries in the middle east for the past 20 or 30 years and is much better equipped than all the staff put together under the republican party. Your comments come across as country bumpkin, a product of Israeli controlled media running in your country.

BTW, more journalists got killed by the IDF than ALL middle east countries combined. Keep on defending the fascists. You make Hitler proud.
 
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Dude#1279435

Audioholic Warlord
I'm not sure if "status quo" pertains to now or part of the future agreement regarding uranium.




Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America

The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America have jointly agreed, in good faith, on ......... 2026, at…….., on the following:

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final Deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.

2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.

3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America commit to negotiating and achieving the final Deal, in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.

4. Immediately upon the signing of this MoU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final Deal.

5. Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman, to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussions with other Persian Gulf Littoral States, in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

6. The United States of America undertakes, with regional partners, to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 Billion, for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of final Deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

PAGE 2

7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon, in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down blending on-site, under the supervision of the IAEA. The two Parties also agree to discuss the issue of enrichment, and other mutually agreed matters relating to the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final Deal. The final Deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

9. Pending the final Deal, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America agree to maintain the status quo; the Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy any additional forces in the region.

10. The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11. The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use, the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MoU and the future compliance of the final Deal.

PAGE 3

13. After signing this MoU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MoU and the continuing implementation of these measures, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America will start negotiations regarding the final Deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

14. The final Deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.
 

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