Iran has many different sects, but from what I've read, across the board about 25% are hardline Islamists, 25% would willingly kill the Islamists, and 50% just want to live their lives in peace. Rewind back to Jan, the national strike and mass protests by millions of Iranians was spearhe!ded by the merchant class, part of that 50%, on economic grounds (hyperinflation). Hyperinflation is a precursor to civil war in most cases, and despite the IRGC wiping out 30k or so of their own citizens, Iran was headed that way.
I question the wisdom of our intervention, and who knows what the mixmaster of regional sectarian strife will spit out, but for many Iranians the US involvement feels more like the liberation of Europe from Nazism in WWII, not the invasion of Iraq. They begged us to do this when the IRGC was killing en mass.
I guess what I'm saying is that there's a chance, a non-zero chance, that a sane, non-radical faction can emerge and lead Iran.
Almost zero chance now. (of regime change)
The leaders of the democratic factions, all the prominent ones were being held in house arrest by the Islamist regime.... and the homes they were being held in, were all targeted by the USA or Israel.
So part of the attack strategy has been to intentionally decapitate all the organised democratic factions in Iran, so as to leave the field clear for the Pahlavi's to be imposed as a totalitarian secular replacement for the totalitarian fundamentalists.
Most Iranians are not overly enthused about such a swap. - Replace one set of secret police, and repressive regime, by a different one, imposed by Israel and the USA....
Needless to say, Iranians are not rushing out in the streets to risk their life and limb for a new Shah.
The martyrdom of the existing leadership (and the democratic alternatives!) - is merely increasing the popularity of resistance against the attacks, and fighting against externally imposed governance.
The new Supreme Leader's popularity, is being enhanced every day by ongoing attacks.
Strategic bombing campaigns do not have a good historical track record with regards to generating changes of heart in a population or in their leadership. Didn't work with the Germans bombing Britain, or the Allies bombing Germany, and the success with regards to Japan is and has been a highly contentious and debatable issue.... Iran required troops on the ground to change regimes, the bombing campaign did not do it there either, and then there's Gaza.... which has been completely razed, and yet Hamas remains in charge.
