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️ US claims a “stealth” Hormuz oil corridor is moving 10 million barrels a day. Analysts are skeptical. Two US officials told Axios that US military is running a corridor through the Strait of Hormuz for weeks, moving about 10 million barrels of oil a day, roughly half

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US claims a “stealth” Hormuz oil corridor is moving 10 million barrels a day. Analysts are skeptical.

Two US officials told Axios that US military is running a corridor through the Strait of Hormuz for weeks, moving about 10 million barrels of oil a day, roughly half pre-war volume, out of the Gulf via a southern channel off Oman. Axios frequently serves as a conduit for US and Israeli official leaks.

President Trump said “a tremendous amount of oil” is now leaving the strait and that the US is not negotiating with Iran.

CNN reported something similar, saying Iran has “at least partially lost control” of the strait, with over 80% of recent transits using the Omani route or going “dark.” But energy analysts question the 10 million figure, and the narrative of U.S. having the global oil situation under control.

Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group said available data doesn’t corroborate it, putting flows at “at least 5-6 million bpd.”

Rory Johnston estimated August transits nearer 5 million bpd, “or half [the] US claim,” calling it “a stretch” that double that volume is moving “entirely undetected, no sign of loadings, or where these ships may be landing.”

HFI Research says the Oman Lane is transiting ~5 million b/d of crude, or 2.5 VLCCs a day. Axios “came up with a magical number of ~10 million barrels PER DAY” from a claimed 15-20 transits last week, the investment research firm said, adding, “If you are going to lie, at least make the numbers believable. To achieve 10 million barrels per day, that’s 35 VLCCs over a week. Yeah, the numbers are so bad; journalists don’t even fact-check anymore.”