How close are we to WWIII?

[Dude#1279435]

Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) on X

️ US claims a “stealth” Hormuz oil corridor is moving 10 million barrels a day. Analysts are skeptical. Two US officials told Axios that US military is running a corridor through the Strait of Hormuz for weeks, moving about 10 million barrels of oil a day, roughly half

x.com

US claims a “stealth” Hormuz oil corridor is moving 10 million barrels a day. Analysts are skeptical.

Two US officials told Axios that US military is running a corridor through the Strait of Hormuz for weeks, moving about 10 million barrels of oil a day, roughly half pre-war volume, out of the Gulf via a southern channel off Oman. Axios frequently serves as a conduit for US and Israeli official leaks.

President Trump said “a tremendous amount of oil” is now leaving the strait and that the US is not negotiating with Iran.

CNN reported something similar, saying Iran has “at least partially lost control” of the strait, with over 80% of recent transits using the Omani route or going “dark.” But energy analysts question the 10 million figure, and the narrative of U.S. having the global oil situation under control.

Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group said available data doesn’t corroborate it, putting flows at “at least 5-6 million bpd.”

Rory Johnston estimated August transits nearer 5 million bpd, “or half [the] US claim,” calling it “a stretch” that double that volume is moving “entirely undetected, no sign of loadings, or where these ships may be landing.”

HFI Research says the Oman Lane is transiting ~5 million b/d of crude, or 2.5 VLCCs a day. Axios “came up with a magical number of ~10 million barrels PER DAY” from a claimed 15-20 transits last week, the investment research firm said, adding, “If you are going to lie, at least make the numbers believable. To achieve 10 million barrels per day, that’s 35 VLCCs over a week. Yeah, the numbers are so bad; journalists don’t even fact-check anymore.”

 

[Dude#1279435]

I have a hard time seeing the dollar going down to the point it isn't the main trading currency, but it's always interesting to hear what Phillip has to say. To me though can the US be $40 trillion in debt while trying to maintain the dollars strength while trying to tinker with currency etc? It feels to me like we're sort of maintaining our high living standards via a credit card. If we're getting cheaper goods abroad and not the producer of said and another meaningless stock market record high, well it feels rather superficial. What's our "real" value -$40 trillion? Need some analysts and/or economists to answer that. Philip does state at the end this won't be like starvation but we could see 30-35% reduction in standard of living. He mentioned someone who did a paper on the first wave being the Ukraine war and that writer figured it was 15-17% reduction.

 

[Dude#1279435]

If you don't wanna watch the entire thing I have this time stamped where Mario summarizes in a few minutes MIchael Hudson's belief on the global economy.

 

[Dude#1279435]

As the video goes on Hudson's model seems to be "Keynesian," and I grew up on that being a bad thing. But it's interesting...... he says there would be a central currency/bank type thing where they judge credits based on countries having a surplus/debt. I think he said that model was denied by the US in 1944 because we were the leaders in surplus at the time. I don't see how the US ever goes along with that because the economy, at least to me, is tied with politics and reduction of wars etc. I might be making that up though LOL. Something is off to me though. China buys our debt, and if we're not the manufacturing leader of the world well it seems to me we're artificially inflating our net value. I mean if I looked only at GDP, well yeah I would have a rosy image of our economy too.

 

[3db]

Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) on X

️ US claims a “stealth” Hormuz oil corridor is moving 10 million barrels a day. Analysts are skeptical. Two US officials told Axios that US military is running a corridor through the Strait of Hormuz for weeks, moving about 10 million barrels of oil a day, roughly half

x.com

US claims a “stealth” Hormuz oil corridor is moving 10 million barrels a day. Analysts are skeptical.

Two US officials told Axios that US military is running a corridor through the Strait of Hormuz for weeks, moving about 10 million barrels of oil a day, roughly half pre-war volume, out of the Gulf via a southern channel off Oman. Axios frequently serves as a conduit for US and Israeli official leaks.

President Trump said “a tremendous amount of oil” is now leaving the strait and that the US is not negotiating with Iran.

CNN reported something similar, saying Iran has “at least partially lost control” of the strait, with over 80% of recent transits using the Omani route or going “dark.” But energy analysts question the 10 million figure, and the narrative of U.S. having the global oil situation under control.

Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group said available data doesn’t corroborate it, putting flows at “at least 5-6 million bpd.”

Rory Johnston estimated August transits nearer 5 million bpd, “or half [the] US claim,” calling it “a stretch” that double that volume is moving “entirely undetected, no sign of loadings, or where these ships may be landing.”

HFI Research says the Oman Lane is transiting ~5 million b/d of crude, or 2.5 VLCCs a day. Axios “came up with a magical number of ~10 million barrels PER DAY” from a claimed 15-20 transits last week, the investment research firm said, adding, “If you are going to lie, at least make the numbers believable. To achieve 10 million barrels per day, that’s 35 VLCCs over a week. Yeah, the numbers are so bad; journalists don’t even fact-check anymore.”

I heard that but Larry Johnson calls BS to this. I tend to believe Larry over the US administration with a solid track record of lies to the American public.

 

[3db]

It would be supremely stupid of Iran to risk drawing NATO into this conflict.

NATO ‘prepared’ to defend allies amid report of Iranian strike plans

NATO says it will 'do what is necessary' amid media report Iran considered strikes against US targets in Europe.

www.aljazeera.com

NATO has no teeth and should tread very carefully themselves.

 

[Dude#1279435]

I heard that but Larry Johnson calls BS to this. I tend to believe Larry over the US administration with a solid track record of lies to the American public.

They're saying its more like 5 million barrels per day.

BTW speaking of lies, I wonder what the total is now? After Trump's first term they were saying 30k. 10 years on maybe 70k? LOL.

 

[GO-NAD!]

NATO has no teeth and should tread very carefully themselves.

NATO has no wish to be involved. Should that change, it will be due to Iranian actions. That said, NATO is far from toothless.

 

[GO-NAD!]

Like it or not I think what Iran is saying is if you help the US you run the risk of being attacked.


>>>Bulgaria’s parliament approved the use of the Bezmer Air Base as a refuelling station for US military planes in July and allowed about 250 US military personnel to be stationed there until October.<<<

>>>Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke to his Bulgarian counterpart shortly after the US was given permission to use its base to remind her that “any party that participates in any way in carrying out a military attack against Iran will certainly have to accept responsibility for its consequences,” according to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency.

A British airbase in Cyprus is the only European location that has been struck by a drone since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran in February.<<<

There is a large difference between providing a refueling station and taking direct military action. Iran has some sympathy from other western countries - not for their government, but for their people - but, that could evaporate if the regime starts a campaign against NATO countries.