DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years Says Bill Gates

[Audioholics]

From the "He said WHAT?!" department... This is just so funny we had to post it. According to Bill Gates:

"DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years at the latest"

Asked what home entertainment would like in the future, Gates said that DVD technology would be "obsolete in 10 years at the latest. If you consider that nowadays we have to carry around film and music on little silver discs and stick them in the computer, it's ridiculous," Gates said in comments reproduced in German in the mass-circulation daily Bild.


"These things can scratch or simply get lost."


Uh, Bill... maybe you should talk to your WMVHD group and also to the people that supply bandwidth to the cable and satellite providers. I think they'd like to be let in on the little secret that they will magically be able to carry all (and we mean all) HD on-demand content in just 10 years... Gates' vision of television of the future was: "TV that will simply show what we want to see, when we want to see it. When we get home, the home computer will know who we are from our voice or our face. It will know what we want to watch, our favorite programs, or what the kids shouldn't be allowed to see."

While we're amused, we can't help but think that sometimes people miss the boat (two or three times it seems). If this is an indicator of Microsoft's vision of the future then I hope there is plenty of competition in the arena of high definition DVDs and HDTV production, either that or sign me up for "on-demand everything" service...

 

[Audiosouse]

I hate to say it, but maybe Wild Bill has a point. Just look back at the consumer lifespan of the VHS tape (a bit more than 10 years), the cassette tape (about 10 years) and the CD (although hardly obsolete, I don't see any kids with portable CD players walking around). If the dizzying pace of computer technolgy and bandwidth availability keeps pace, it's definately possible. VOD and PVR's are common now, hard drive capacity is growing exponentially, and as long as sound quality improves, why not? We'd better get used to being connected...or is that assimilated Bill?

 

[Dan Banquer]

Bill Gates

I'm hoping Bill Gates and Microsoft will be obsolete in ten years, and no I don't own a Mac!
d.b.

 

[Rob Babcock]

The "content providers" and "intellectual property holders" would love to see Gates prediction come true. I suspect it's an attempt at a self fulfilling prophesy. With no physical media to own, the content provider can charge whatever he feels the market can bear, and the purchaser will only be able to use the "product" in whatever manner the owner deigns to allow. That's the Holy Grail of business models for the movie & music industries.

I really doubt we'll ever see the day that storage mediums are completely replaced by on-demand services. Wireless broadband streaming will become more prevalent and the technology will make it more practical, but will we have it in the car? On the beach? While we're camping? During inclement weather? Will it be via cable? I doubt the market penetration of cable will really increase much beyond what it already is. And will we really have enough storage & time to make every movie & song ever written available on-demand? Will there be enough demand to make that economically feasible for everything, indies included?

I don't doubt one bit that the DVDs days are numbered. Almost assuredly it'll be supplanted by a HiDef DVD format by 2009/2010 at the very latest. And DVD might be the last optical medium we use; I've read that the Babylon-5-style data crystal is near reality, and of course we have solid state devices, too. Who knows what data storage technology is being developed in some industry skunk works facility.

 

[joelincoln]

Babylon 5 RULES !!!

Actually, the existing solid state storage devices (compact flash, etc) are functionally not unlike a data crystal. This type of media is potentially far superior to anything with moving parts. I have been amazed at the growth of these devices via mp3, GPS, and the like.

The future is now.

 

[tec]

hate to say it...

he actually might be right, i just hope that when it does go that route microsoft will not be the dominant player they are now...imagine on demand everything...HD quality, amd etc. with a whole ton of bugs like all the windows products!

 

[rgriffin25]

Take a step back

Who really knows where technology will be in 10 years. If you take a second and step back and recap what has happened in the last 10 years, you might not be such a skeptic.

(These dates are Rough Estimates)

1994 Dolby Pro Logic was the latest technology.
$350-500 VCRs were common.
At this time there were very few computer owners and the internet as we know it was beginning to pick up speed.

High Dollar computer-

66mhz processor
4 mb memory
the floppy disc still meant something
14k or 28 k modems were the fastest thing out there.

1997 DVD and Dolby Digital became available to most average consumers


1998-1999 MP3 and computer popularity shot through the roof.

2000-2001 Services Like TIvo and Replay TV began paving the way for the future of television watching.

I am sure you all know the rest... And could point out several things that I failed to mention. I guess my point is that any lucrative idea may become a reality. The real question here is does Bill Gates hold the key to the Future? I highly doubt it!

 

[Unregistered]

He holds the key to a $60billion safe, though. He could BUY the future.

 

[Unregistered]

Lets step back 10 years and think about technology......think about it

 

[TjMV3]

I hope it never goes to on-demand!!

I'll never pay to listen to an album, everytime I want to listen.

If I can't pay for a storage format once, have the music/video in my home and play it when I want....with no extra charges or fees. I don't want it.

They'll never get me on that boat!

 

[Unregistered]

Lets step back 10 years and think about technology......think about it

Alright lets.
- SACD and DVD-Audio has not replaced the old redbook cd format.
- DVD-Video definately kicks VHS. Of that there is no doubt.
- Speaker materials have improved, speaker technology is essentially the same (I could argue my old Dalhquist DQ-10's could kick the pants out of most sub $2000 speakers built today)
- Vinyl is enjoying quite a renaissance, compared to 10 years ago.
- There are more digital processing options now, but are they really better?
- 5 year old digital processors that cost $4000-$5000 are now "obsolete".

And on and on. It is an interesting story, some of which may be true. But I'll bet that the vinyl market will continue to grow, all the while when others are listening to resampled mp3's and be completely sastified with that.

 

[Rob Babcock]

There's a lot of lip service paid to vinyl, but sales are moribund and the format's still pretty much dead. While I love SACD & DVD-A, I don't see CD going away anytime soon as the primary carrier of music. MP3 and the like may be the main way for children to experience "music", but I've never downloaded a song and I likely never will, and I'll never voluntarily give up the option of possessing the music on a physical media. One day, if that's how things go, then I'll just give up buying music altogether and enjoy the library I already have. Sorta like a lot of LP lovers.

 

[jeffsg4mac]

Vinyl is indeed dead, let it rest in peace. The CD finished it off 15 years ago. It is more dead than Laser disk and that is pretty dead.

 

[HookedOnSound]

technology is what it is..

This is in response to Bill Gates' statements on technology...

I personally think people put too much emphasis on what he says.

Technology is the product of innovation through creativity and determination.

Gates' is simply looking in a crystal ball much like everyone...some of it will come true some of it won't....

I worry much less about what I can get 10 years from now as to what I need today. If only they could get yesterday's technology to work properly today... now that would be cool!

I am still waiting for a toaster to make my toasts exactly the same way I like them everyday! Now that would impress me.

 

[Alec]

Long live DVD, DVD is dead

Ofcourse he's right but don't read into it too much.

Read what was said..

"DVD will be dead in 10 years"

"When you come home your intelliugent home (aka MS systems) will know what you want and play it for you"

These are two different statements and not necessarily connected.

Statement 1 - DVD is dead
OK putting a peice of media in something that needs to spin so it can be read in this day and age is absurd. We won't have really (technologically) moved forward in my opinion until we move away from motors and spinning bits. I don't see CD's or even DVD's to that matter much different to records and VHS, it's been more of an evolution than a revolution. These devices are not portable (who seriously carries around a portable CD player)?

When memory sticks, cf cards, mmc or whatever format wins gets to the right price you won't ever want to carry anything around bigger than a matchbox to hear your music and it will play for almost a day on one battery. You will be able to plug that media into your PC, AMP, TV etc and there it is. Yes you can get a 6gb CF card nowadays. Now that's a revolution.

Statement 2
Disagree with Bill here. As he has completely forgot about access when moving around the planet.

 

[Rob Babcock]

I think that whether it spins, sits there, or jumps up and down is irrelevant in a playback medium. An LP and a CD both spin, but there the similarity ends. The sound of an LP, like all analog playback mediums, requires the speed be controlled precisely. Speed variations create wow and flutter and will change the pitch. With digital, the timing is coded in a clock signal and consistency of rotational speed is largely irrelevant.

Like it or not, the available solid state devices that we might wish to employ instead are far too primitive to be economically feasible. Flash memory would be cool, so long as you don't mind paying $65 for an album! Of course someday that will come down. But in the meantime, there's no need to reinvent the wheel, so to speak.

 

[rockout]

shut up bill

what a bloody bloke

 

[Westrock2000]

You know the crazy thing is back in 90/91 when minidisc first came out, I thought man this is amazing...and it was. But I'll never forget, at the time, I read an article in Popular Mechanics/Science about what to expect in the future. They said that eventually, walkmans would be replaced by players that have no moving parts, it would just be like computer memory that never erased. At the time like mentioned before, when 16MB was a lot of memory, I was thinking ya right, a whole cd fit in a computer chip, the Minidisc itself was pretty freakin small at the time. Well, 10 years later you can damn near fit a CD on ~40MB, and easily fit one of 128MB players.

I'm still surprised memory is still expensive...working in a Fab, I can tell you they make all kinds of different stuff, and its just wafer after wafer of silicon. Maybe its just the market value they can get for it.


I just hope subscription fees and compression algorithms aren't the future of Media....but I am afraid

 

[Audioholics]

My thoughts are that its all bandwidth-related. He isn't wrong by saying there's going to be a proliferation of direct-to-consumer media and control, however to truly deliver high-bandwidth HD content - be it audio or video - takes much bandwidth. And THAT is expensive for the broadcast companies and, therefore to the consumer.

So no, I don't think there's a prayer for everything to be sent via direct-to-consumer model, for to accept that premise is to accept that everything will basically suck and the era of high-quality source content will be gone.

I mean, have you ever compared HD broadcasts from DSS to over-the-air? It's amazing how much better "uncompressed" HD is... Compare the to what most television looks like over digital cable channels - then pull out a DVD. Cable and satellite have artifacting all over the place and bandwidth is the only way to improve it (plus better compression schemes). I think the future is going to be tied up just barely getting everything sending in DTV and HDTV - no room for trying to get high-quality sent via cable and air as well...

 

[allen garman]

I enjoy watching films when I want, pausing when I want, and rewinding when I want, watching special features... I think the industry has a long way to go before the bandwidth issues, limited content issues and copyright issues related to on demand downloads into a hard drive are a reality.

As a subscriber to Netflix over the last few years, I can say that I have never paid for a premium movie channel and never will. I have purchased only about 4 movies from my PPV Dishnetwork service over the last three years. The poor selection of movies on PPV and pay channels are a major disadvantage relative to a DVD rental based service like Netflix.

The copyright issues associated with copying DVDs are already a huge problem. I don’t see how hard drives as a storage medium will be any better.

I can’t wait for HD DVD!