DVD Dead in 18 Months? We Don't Think So.

[JackT]

As for me, I'm waiting till end of year before I make a decision to buy, I sat out the war, what's a few more months in the scheme of things, besides I have my new audio library to keep me busy, when I judge the time to be right I'll get a BD player, maybe a Panny or that new Oppo that's going to be launched before year's end.

Exactly the same for me. I currently use an Oppo DVD player, and would be very interested in a BD player made by them. Another intriguing option is this new integrated BD player/receiver Panny is coming out with (part of a BD HTiB.) As an XR55 owner that particular option interests me....

 

[Alamar]

No matter what happens we can't repeal the laws of supply && demand.

Right now the demand for BD is probably going up now that they won the war so, in the short term, there's no reason to lower prices. Of course the only real market is for nuts-like-us [credit goes to another poster].

The demand for HD will likely grow for J6P but they have a quite elastic demand ... I.E. they'll gobble up 5-10$ movies but 35$ moves at B&M stores won't move products at all.

Until the economics work out that BD will generate more profit then DVD I wouldn't expect to see much of a move.

*****************************************8

EDIT: Basically demand won't move much ... it's only when the "supply" increases that we have much hope for lower prices ...

 

[JackT]

I designed and bought my current Home Theater about 12 months ago and, because of the format war, I did not include an HD player in my setup. If I were buying TODAY, though, I certainly would.

I guess I just don't see all these people buying HDTVs but not buying HD players.

 

[Jack Hammer]

I really think more of Joe Public would jump on the BD bandwagon if the prices come down. What's working against BD now is that as time goes on many people are losing the 'it's new and better, I must have it soon' sensation and seeing that they can and have lived without it and been perfectly happy.

Jack

 

[BMXTRIX]

I really think more of Joe Public would jump on the BD bandwagon if the prices come down. What's working against BD now is that as time goes on many people are losing the 'it's new and better, I must have it soon' sensation and seeing that they can and have lived without it and been perfectly happy.

Jack

I don't entirely disagree with this, but it follows the path of the HDTV. It isn't that DVD doesn't work, it is that HD is better. So, Blu-ray isn't a requirement, it is an eventuality.

That is, at some time, and at some price point, the average consumer will begin to pick up Blu-ray players, just as they are doing with flat panel HDTVs. It is possible Blu-ray will obscure itself away, but with the full compatibility, and built in upconversion, and other improvements, it is far less likely than some would like you to believe.

It's still one heck of a battle though!

People also forget one very big thing: The death of HD DVD is the start of the real competition for Blu-ray. Blu-ray prices, for movies and hardware, need to compete against DVD, and while a lot of people will simply buy because they have the money, it won't be at 'mass' levels without prices dropping significantly. Into last holiday season there were numerous sales, and I currently have over 20 discs. On average, I've paid under 15 bucks a disc. Not to bad, and I'm definitely not complaining.

Yet, with DVD as the target, it is still years away from reality and the initial 2.0 players need to be second and third generation products - which is a solid 18 months away from now, before we will see such standardization that economies of scale can kick in and system on a chip systems can be brought forth that give us faster than DVD speed, with incredible 1080p from start to finish.

 

[Jack Hammer]

I don't entirely disagree with this, but it follows the path of the HDTV. It isn't that DVD doesn't work, it is that HD is better. So, Blu-ray isn't a requirement, it is an eventuality...

...It's still one heck of a battle though!...

...Yet, with DVD as the target, it is still years away from reality and the initial 2.0 players need to be second and third generation products - which is a solid 18 months away from now, before we will see such standardization that economies of scale can kick in and system on a chip systems can be brought forth that give us faster than DVD speed, with incredible 1080p from start to finish.

You did a much better job of stating what I feel and was poking at. Except for the word eventuality, I'm just not 100% confident that BD won't go the way of SACD. Or that by the time the general consumer is ready to embrace it, there won't be something better available or on the horizon that renders it obsolete.

Jack

 

[alexsound]

Sorry, but analog video tape is only about 330 lines of resolution.

Actually, standard VHS can only muster about 240 lines of horizontal resolution. Standard NTSC can do about 330 lines, and S-VHS can do about 400 lines. There are many other reasons as to why DVD is superior, other than resolutioin. Color reproduction is far superior than VHS, and DVD has a more stable picture, no jitter, FAR superior sound, etc. DVD is far superior to VHS in every way imaginable.

 

[Thaedium]

We're like a bunch of rabid speculators in the stock market... heh. Quite funny. That said, I'm going to speculate on this as well.

18 Months... Not a chance. As all of you before me have said, theres not a chance if that ever comming about. I'd only add that for it to come about would require drastic changes and implementations on both the Studio's and the hardware manufacturers sides. IE: Studios completely phasing out production of DVD's and Manufacturers ceasing production of DVD players. And that is simply not going to happen, as its fairly easy to see that Studios haven't even ceased productions of VHS and Manufacturers haven't stopped making VHS and DVD/VHS combo players.

Even with prices dropping significantly, lets say the arbitrary number of $10-15 a disc and $100 a player as someone before me mentioned. Consumers wont necessarily be jumping ship. The issue and problems Blu-ray faces is not mainly a cost issue. The primary issue, at least in my mind, is complex and revolves around the concepts of Performance, Understanding, and Value. Cost is secondary to this, in my opinion, because I believe it is fairly well established that people will spend more, gladly, if they believe what they are buying is superior to what they had before.

What the common consumer lacks is simply the understanding of what HD is, and how it works. I'm often amused as I talk to my friends, and head over to their places and they show me what they have. More often then not they have their systems setup incorrectly, and this is simply due to lack of information on their part. I was in a cdplus store yesterday and ran into a friend of mine who was talking with his girlfriend (who worked there), and I was looking through their Blu-ray selection when she started talking about how they seem to be getting rid of HD-DVD's. I told her that is because HD-DVD is no longer being supported by its creators, and she immediately said that she knew all along that Blu-ray was better then HD-DVD. I just laughed to myself and held my tongue. Another example of having no clue comes from my old man. I recently traveled down to visit him and he was showing off his brand new 32" Sharp LCD panel. He was all smiles as he was extolling the virtues of his $3000 purchase, and its ability to display 1080p. He also finally decided to get HD Satellite (which was a huge upgrade for him since previous to that he was just picking up local channels via rabbit ears). I did a quick once over of his quaint system and noticed immediately that the satellite receiver was connected via component cable and not HDMI. So I quickly checked the receivers settings to see if it had been configured to output at 720p at least, and it wasn't. So not only was my old man clueless to the fact he wasn't watching 1080p HD tv, the satellite installer didn't even know enough to set the receiver to output correctly for the chosen wires. Further, my old man is still using a VHS player, and his entire collection is comrprised of simply VHS tapes.

So all of that said, I believe even still that Blu-ray is here to stay. It has found a market, and it will continue to grow. However, I don't believe it will be all that long before we start seeing reliable and quick methods for streaming HD content via internet with all the same goodies as Blu-ray. This is the real future for HD, and movies/tv.

 

[westcott]

You did a much better job of stating what I feel and was poking at. Except for the word eventuality, I'm just not 100% confident that BD won't go the way of SACD. Or that by the time the general consumer is ready to embrace it, there won't be something better available or on the horizon that renders it obsolete.

Jack

I think you make a very valid point that many may overlook. Technologies are being developed at such rapid rates and the improvements in codependent technologies can affect the success of many of them.

I too believe that there will be something MUCH better than the marginal improvement of BluRay over DVD. Only time will tell what that will be!!

 

[Johnd]

I think you make a very valid point that many may overlook. Technologies are being developed at such rapid rates and the improvements in codependent technologies can affect the success of many of them.

I too believe that there will be something MUCH better than the marginal improvement of BluRay over DVD. Only time will tell what that will be!!

I hear what you're saying, but you have to admit that the term "marginal improvement" is a hugely relative term.

I would not very much appreciate the difference between HD and SD on a 27" screen at ten feet. I have to say, at twelve feet from a 100" screen, the pq improvement is well worth it.

Same thing for audio. Not a huge difference on a crt's stereo speakers, but True on a nice set of well-placed speakers (with a nice soundtrack) is appreciable to my ears.

The relativity is especially true as we are now enjoying HD discs for under $10, and the players were had for $50 - $200 (w/ 7-9 movies!).

I have to say I do appreciate the difference, and at not a great expense.

 

[yettitheman]

18 months DVD will be dead like Vinyl in 1987??? Uh... vinyl is still around (just not in mass).

DVD won't be going anywhere soon... considering some movies can be had for $5 at Wal-Mart, and most people I know have DVD players.

A Blu-Ray player that costs $400 (PS3) PLUS $30 a disc (or $15 if you know where to look) kinda sucks to most people.
An existing DVD player (that may have been free or less than $100) with movies that cost $5, or no more than $25 on average.... yep.

DVD is still cheaper to make, has more user base and is standardized for the most part. BD is a new upcoming standard to contend with (yes I know it does exist, but it just won the format war with Toshiba) and isn't penetrated enough in the market to have sway for DVD.

As long as DVD has been around and considering it will probably take 3-5 years or longer with the economy, solid DVD upconversion will play a big part in BD if it want's to get a larger market share (although I haven't seen a BD player that won't upconvert DVD) as well as pricing. The HD-A2 proved the point of the $98 HD player that average people will buy, even if they may not know how to use it to it's full potential. What may be nice, but unknowingly positive or negitive, is to make a BD player with a way of becoming a desktop like computer. We know that the audio part is there, we know that the video processing is there, who's to say that they can't incorporate a computer of sorts for web browsing, or email, or just to run simple applications? It's very do-able, but the expenses may be too great for companies and the consumer, as well as the consumer seeing no value in that addition.

However, BD is king as far as technical superiority (even though there are other technologies out there, but I'm trying to remain in scope with consumer products that are out now), and DVD is king as install bases go.

Eventually, DVD will go away sometime, but not anywhere soon at all. I give it 20 or so years. If the computer technology market is anything like the HD in respects to faster parts and larger storage capacity accesibility, then BD will be history in 5-10 years. However, consumer products have held longer, steadier positions in the market that computers.

 

[BMXTRIX]

You did a much better job of stating what I feel and was poking at. Except for the word eventuality, I'm just not 100% confident that BD won't go the way of SACD. Or that by the time the general consumer is ready to embrace it, there won't be something better available or on the horizon that renders it obsolete.

Jack

I think portable music is an eventuality - but great sounding music is not.

HDTV is in that same category - it's an eventuality. People aren't pushing for portable video en' masse, they are pushing for better video... and are being marketed HDTV above all else.

Now, could something better come along? Absolutely! But, there is still a fair bit of debate whether or not it will be physical, or if it will matter. That is, 1080p video is about all the consumer can handle, and it is the current level the market is finally hitting. Not that consumers, stupid as most are, won't be excited about, and buy 2160p video - they just won't see any improvement with it.

So, will there be better? Yes, I think there will be.

But, I think Blu-ray represents what may be the last step in physical media perhaps forever. Maybe not. I happily will admit my stupidity on the future. But, with how much people talk about HDDL, it is hard to imagine that a new physical media will come along to replace DVD or Blu-ray in 5 years. It's also hard to imagine that people will be willing to give up physical ownership of discs the way they would for CDs. People didn't really give up CDs though, as they still sell, it's just that downloads gives them just the songs they want without buying an entire album - and keeps it portable.

Downloads does not represent an improvement in video, nor an improvement to the buying and ownership process, so physical media may still dominate for movie ownership - even if I (strongly) believe that the rental market will be owned by the download process.

But, there is no question to me that DVD is the only really serious obstacle for Blu-ray at this point and in 18 months (3 years in) we will just start to be seeing what the real potential of Blu-ray is.

Not sure how many people here bought players that were sold as SACD players - or DVD-A players before they were DVD or CD players. This is the fine difference - Blu-ray is sold as Blu-ray and HD first - DVD second... If it continues that way, then I do believe it could emerge as the dominant format.

 

[aarond]

DVD came to the U.S. March of 1997, the week of June 15 2003 was the first time that prerecorded DVDs outsold VHS in the U.S. 2006 was when major studios stopped releasing new titles in VHS. I don't see any way that the transition to blu will be any faster. If picture quality is the reason does anybody remember D-VHS? Its going to be a long time untill DVDs disappear from the shelves of your local walmart