Blu-ray could have a very real chance of usurping DVD as the defacto standard for video production, but it sure as heck ain't gonna happen in the next 18 months (3 years into the format), but it will be far more obvious what is going to happen at that point.
DVD took over 5 years to generate more revenue than VHS, and DVD only last year had more players on the market than VHS. So, to think that Blu-ray, or any other HD medium, is realistically going to outpace this would be silly by anyone. In fact, with DVD player pricing and quality, combined with how many households actually own HD displays, it is clear that Blu-ray will have a much more difficult time becoming the next player.
That said, it is only fools who think that picture quality has anything to do with this.
Marketing is what sells more than anything else and Bose and Monster are companies that exist to market to consumers and consumers bend over backwards to give them money and to swear that those products are better. Blu-ray won't reach $30 a player anytime soon, but it is 1080p, and we all have heard from people who demand 1080p for their 32" display they are putting 15 feet from their couch.
It is not about informed consumers, it is about the vast majority of consumers who get sold on an idea even if it makes zero sense for them whatsoever. This is what definitely becomes the case for Blu-ray. Not only is the consumer given true 1080p, but it matches up with the past few years of 1080p advertising. It is a perfect fit, even if it gives very little to many consumers.
Now, the flip side ends up being the actual hardware pricing levels - which obviously need to come down. It won't be $300 players, but sub $100 players that really will make the determination. Yet, it isn't unrealistic to expect this to be the case. Master audio, HD audio, etc. DVD, DVD-A, SACD, upconversion, etc... It will all be standard in the players in a couple of years... along with profile 2.0 standard. Then the price just drops and drops. Software pricing will follow as sales volume increases.
But, none of it is a guarantee at all. It is a long term plan, or from me, a long term idea of what could happen if persistence pays off. Yet, the concept of consumers buying what they are sold is backed by fact, not by wishful thinking. The question of whether or not HD media will replace DVD is going to be more of a 'when' instead of an 'if' - and what replaces it, or what combination will replace it, is most definitely in question.
Yet, I have little doubt that it will be replaced... at some point... eventually... by something.
