Does Microsoft want BOTH HD-DVD and Blu-ray to fail?!?

[darien87]

Interesting comment made my Michael Bay.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Michael_Bay/Microsoft/Michael_Bay_Accuses_HD_DVD-Backing_Microsoft_of_Dirty_Tricks/1235

 

[j_garcia]

Aside from pointing the finger directly at Microsoft, I have been saying the same thing for some time. It is almost a given that downloads will be the way of the future and that physical media won't be around too much longer. Yes, I do like to actually have something to show for my money spent, but I also like the convenience of not having to go to a store to get it.

 

[aberkowitz]

Aside from pointing the finger directly at Microsoft, I have been saying the same thing for some time. It is almost a given that downloads will be the way of the future and that physical media won't be around too much longer. Yes, I do like to actually have something to show for my money spent, but I also like the convenience of not having to go to a store to get it.

But don't you think that actual internet download speeds will have to be drastically increased in order for digital downloads to be effective? Among developed countries the US has one of the worst broadband penetration rates, and our upload/download speeds rank near the bottom. I don't see these problems being fixed in the relative near-term (next 5 years), so how much sense does it make to build a huge platform for something that most people cannot use?

Just playing devil's advocate here....

 

[Alamar]

Maybe I don't "get it" but I'm not convinced that digital downloads is going to be the primary delivery method anytime soon.

Among some of the Pros of a system would be:
1. No need to distribute physical media. [Lower costs]
2. Allow niche items to be distributed efficiently.
3. No need for shelf space or similar.



The cons that I see, off the top of my head, are:

1. Are american ISPs really going to be happy about supplying 100x the bandwidth that I would normally use monthly to handle digital distros?

2. Are movie studios really going to send out a clean digital copy that I can expect to play without even more DRM headaches than we have now?

3. Are we going to get the same quality audio / video with digital downloads that we'd get with physical copies? IIRC the number of companies that would allow digital downloads of a DVD at full bitrate are by far the minority. I'd rather have a higher quality / higher bitrate version any day of the week.

4. I will still need to burn a copy of the items that I buy anyway. I doubt that I'm going to trust a HDD to store my movies for 10 years +.

5. What are Joe & Jane Sixpack going to do? How are they going to react?

6. There is some logic behind digital downloads which means that it won't be allowed to happen


EDIT: I honestly see the cons or roadblocks to strongly outweigh the pros for now and the near future (< 10 years).

 

[darien87]

I would LOVE to not have to waste all that space storing discs though.

 

[j_garcia]

I don't think downloads will happen in the next few years, but it does seem to be an eventuality; 5-10 years. They will have to make it simple for J6P, like direct through your cable box to your TV so you don't have to know anything about PCs to make use of it, and yes, speed will have to increase.

 

[tcarcio]

Well here is another opinionhttp://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20071205-debunking-the-microsoft-hd-dvd-conspiracy-theories.html about MS.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Well here is another opinionhttp://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20071205-debunking-the-microsoft-hd-dvd-conspiracy-theories.html about MS.

Yep, the second side of the coin

 

[davo]

I would LOVE to not have to waste all that space storing discs though.

So you would trust an electronic library to hang onto all your movies which you STILL had to pay for? You are a lot braver than I am.

Surely you would have a backup of every movie, which negates your comment.

Sorry to be forward about it, but it's pretty logical.

 

[fmw]

5 years? I would be amazed if someone made broadband available in my area in 5 years let alone gigabyte downloads.

 

[aberkowitz]

5 years? I would be amazed if someone made broadband available in my area in 5 years let alone gigabyte downloads.

I found some of the latest statistics on that- http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0708/

US is 24th in worldwide broadband penetration out of the top 25 countries....

 

[Audioholics]

So you would trust an electronic library to hang onto all your movies which you STILL had to pay for? You are a lot braver than I am.

I think the whole issue is getting a company you can TRUST to host the files and provide the service. Some new startup that can close it's doors 5 years after I build up a sizable library as an early adopter is not my idea of stability... But if Microsoft, Google or Time Warner Cable/Comcast was behind it there is some level of stability.

At that point it should (i.e. they need to make it) be as reliable as the Internet in terms of accessing it from anywhere, recovering your past purchases, etc...

 

[darien87]

So you would trust an electronic library to hang onto all your movies which you STILL had to pay for? You are a lot braver than I am.

Surely you would have a backup of every movie, which negates your comment.

Why wouldn't I? And even if I did keep back-ups, I could just store them on an external hard drive. Maybe I'm being naive, but it doesn't seem like a big deal to me.

 

[Alamar]

I think the whole issue is getting a company you can TRUST to host the files and provide the service. Some new startup that can close it's doors 5 years after I build up a sizable library as an early adopter is not my idea of stability... But if Microsoft, Google or Time Warner Cable/Comcast was behind it there is some level of stability.

At that point it should (i.e. they need to make it) be as reliable as the Internet in terms of accessing it from anywhere, recovering your past purchases, etc...

I was thinking about hosting companies but I'm not really sure that I even trust Time Warner / Paramount / Microsoft / Google etc. to host the files for free "forever" ... When storage sizes are in the TBs I doubt that's really going to be free. [By Free I mean that there are no extra fees compared to the current business model] .... Honestly I don't even trust these companies if they decide that they don't want to support digital downloads anymore that they'll do something to let me watch the product that I bought after they close the doors.

I'd still need fat pipes for things like on-demand / NetFlix / BlockBuster / etc. at the quality that I'd demand. Joe & Jane SixPack will need to access their file stores fast enough to stream & watch their movies in real time. Even then if the 'net goes down good luck watching that movie that you bought.

Basically when we have data storage potentials 100x higher than today combined with internet speeds 100x faster than today combined with download limits [think Comcast] 50x higher than today then digital downloads will make a whole lot of sense.

Even if we overcome the technilogical hurdles we also need to change the mindset of the DRM croud. They would be so resistant to change that they may not even allow the sort of model that we're discussing to go forward.

 

[mtrycrafts]

I was thinking about hosting companies but I'm not really sure that I even trust Time Warner / Paramount / Microsoft / Google etc. to host the files for free "forever" ... When storage sizes are in the TBs I doubt that's really going to be free. [By Free I mean that there are no extra fees compared to the current business model] .... Honestly I don't even trust these companies if they decide that they don't want to support digital downloads anymore that they'll do something to let me watch the product that I bought after they close the doors.

I'd still need fat pipes for things like on-demand / NetFlix / BlockBuster / etc. at the quality that I'd demand. Joe & Jane SixPack will need to access their file stores fast enough to stream & watch their movies in real time. Even then if the 'net goes down good luck watching that movie that you bought.

Basically when we have data storage potentials 100x higher than today combined with internet speeds 100x faster than today combined with download limits [think Comcast] 50x higher than today then digital downloads will make a whole lot of sense.

Even if we overcome the technilogical hurdles we also need to change the mindset of the DRM croud. They would be so resistant to change that they may not even allow the sort of model that we're discussing to go forward.

When THEY have what you own, they have you over the barrel. Harder to do that when you have your property in your possession
I have no problem with having shelf space. I have shelf space for books so why not other media?

 

[patnshan]

I don't think microsoft wants failure of a format it supports (HD DVD), then again, they've done some crazy things.

I actually think that HD VOD (video on demand) is where the future is. I have TWC, and the HD video service is pretty good. The content is limited, but could see it expanding in the future. The one problem I see with it is that it costs $5 each time you want to watch it. They'd need to come up with a better model in order for it to replace actual media.

Pat

 

[abboudc]

I think the whole issue is getting a company you can TRUST to host the files and provide the service. Some new startup that can close it's doors 5 years after I build up a sizable library as an early adopter is not my idea of stability... But if Microsoft, Google or Time Warner Cable/Comcast was behind it there is some level of stability.

At that point it should (i.e. they need to make it) be as reliable as the Internet in terms of accessing it from anywhere, recovering your past purchases, etc...

I would *not* trust microsoft, especially with file formats. Look at Zune vs. the other microsoft-based media players. The files don't even work across devices and they basically wrote all the software. Yikes.