JerryLove

JerryLove

Audioholic Samurai
True, however we don't have "wet Markets".
Because we are too squeamish to butcher our own food. We want it preprocessed and pre-packaged.

That said: your grocery store doesn't have a tank for live lobsters?

Perhaps their market is just more comprehensive than ours.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic
The problem is the respirators do not save enough patients , many die once there reliant on them .
Wonder what secret kabbala let this Pandora’s box disease out .
Reptilians!? Greys ?? Kangaroo men


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
WSJ.com ran an article that cited preliminary British data showing that about 2/3 of COVID-19 patients who go on respirators die. I'm guessing almost 100% of those who had been put on respirators would have died without the respirators, so it's better than nothing. It's too bad there is presently not a proven way to beat this blasted virus.

1586372866535.png


 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic
ABC news cites unnamed sources who claim that U.S. intelligence was aware of the virus in Wuhan as early as last November. If true, this is fascinating.

It also makes me wonder how early this virus started to spread.

And, of course, this raises the question why the federal government here was so slow to act.


>>>As far back as late November, U.S. intelligence officials were warning that a contagion was sweeping through China’s Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population, according to four sources briefed on the secret reporting.

Concerns about what is now known to be the novel coronavirus pandemic were detailed in a November intelligence report by the military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI), according to two officials familiar with the document’s contents. . .

"The timeline of the intel side of this may be further back than we’re discussing," the source said of preliminary reports from Wuhan. "But this was definitely being briefed beginning at the end of November as something the military needed to take a posture on."<<<

 
JerryLove

JerryLove

Audioholic Samurai
ABC news cites unnamed sources who claim that U.S. intelligence was aware of the virus in Wuhan as early as last November. If true, this is fascinating.
It was public knowledge by December, when Tiwan began its response.

This (a pandemic, particularly a respiratory one based on influenza or corona) was also cited by the Obama transition team as one of their biggest fears.
 
mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Audioholic Slumlord
It was public knowledge by December, when Tiwan began its response.

This (a pandemic, particularly a respiratory one based on influenza or corona) was also cited by the Obama transition team as one of their biggest fears.
It was all fake news until the king reacted. Then it became truth. ;) :D
He didn't want to scare the public until he did scare the bejesus out of them.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic
It was public knowledge by December, when Tiwan began its response.
True, Taiwan started acting after the WHO report on December 31,2019:

>>>On December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was notified of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, China, Taiwanese officials began to board planes and assess passengers on direct flights from Wuhan for fever and pneumonia symptoms before passengers could deplane.<<<

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689?guestAccessKey=2a3c6994-9e10-4a0b-9f32-cc2fb55b61a5&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=030320<<<

The first WHO situation report dated January 20, 2020 also lists the December 31, 2019 date:

>>>On 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China.<<<


If the ABC news report is accurate, US intelligence knew about the coronavirus at least a month prior to this, and also warned the military about it. From ABC:

>>>The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images. It raised alarms because an out-of-control disease would pose a serious threat to U.S. forces in Asia -- forces that depend on the NCMI’s work. And it paints a picture of an American government that could have ramped up mitigation and containment efforts far earlier to prepare for a crisis poised to come home.

"Analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources said of the NCMI’s report. "It was then briefed multiple times to" the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s Joint Staff and the White House.<<<
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Audioholic Slumlord
It seems we have had a lot of useless and often unedifying bickering here of late, while this grave crisis grows ever more serious and far dwarfs any other crisis any of us have seen in our lifetimes.

I will get straight to the pint with Jerry. I have nothing against Chinese people, but I consider the Chinese leadership to be criminals who have to be brought to account.

They deliberately hid and tried to suppress this outbreak by violent repressive means of that there is no doubt. I miss trust anything they have to say at this point.

They should have cleaned up their vile wet markets years ago, as they had been advised by many. Although making them illegal they offered no enforcement. It is still open to conjecture whether that was truly the source or something more sinister. I will have more to say about that later.

Since that time they have run a concerted disinformation campaign.

Also this.

Inadvertently or not, and probably not they have hindered efforts to bring the pandemic under control.

The UK have received 3.5 million test kits from China all of them dud. The UK have cancelled their remaining 17.5 million and are demanding a refund.

The Dutch also received dud test kits, and unfortunately unlike the UK did not validate them, which has caused them to loose control of their targeted approach.

The governor of Minnesota stated today in his news conference that a large quantity of PPE ordered from China has been impounded without explanation by the Chinese military. Now according to the Chinese their epidemic is over. So either they are lying about that and actually they still have a problem, or they are deliberately hindering our response to the pandemic. Minnesota by the way is doing an excellent job of flattening the curve.

The thing that worries me is that it is clear this virus is becoming more dangerous over time, with increasing mortality and causing cardiac and neurological problems now. This needs control as fast as possible. Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit reported this case.

I have spent the last few days intensively covering the literature in case I am called on to function in a Telemedicine role. My wife has renewed her nursing license and doing 27 hour pharmacy course on line to get her nurse practitioner license back. It seems that older vulnerable physicians like me who go back to the front lines just add to the problem.

I took part in a North Dakota webinar on all this this evening. Due to the stupidity of the governor of ND, they have more cases than Minnesota!

They are seeing a lot of cases in Bismark and Fargo. The accounts from Fargo ICU physician Karla Johnson were extremely interesting. She is very experienced and said she had never encountered a disease with anything like these features before. It seems the virus seems to attack the elastic structure of the lung actually increasing lung compliance. She said she had never seen this before and nor have I. I have never seen a pulmonary problem putting a patient on a ventilator not decrease lung compliance. It also produces marked impairment of oxygen transfer. In addition some patients are developing classic ARDS. It is vital to distinguish the two. In addition they report neurological problems causing swallowing and especially speech problems. Others in the US are reporting this also. Damage to the heart has been noted world wide. The first case in Bismark a 37 year old from the oil fields who was on the ventilator went into atrial fibrillation and has markedly reduced cardiac contractility even at the time of discharge. It is unknown if he will have permanent cardiac damage. It seems in both Fargo and Bismark, about half the cases that come to the ER end up on the ventilator. Interestingly one Bismark case has developed Guillan Barre syndrome with paralysis. One thing I did take note of that in ND most of their ventilated patients were in their thirties for some reason.

In my view there has been far too much loose talk of this being a mild illness and not a very serious devastating one. This has no resemblance to seasonal flu what so ever. Herbu, if you still harbor any of your notions to the contrary dump them now!

The social restrictions have to follow the science as it unfolds. There is no quick end to this. I agree with our Minnesota governor that there is a significant risk of a further peak in the fall.

A study today from Belgium and Holland has shown that people who are working hard or exercising can spread a cloud of virus far and wide. So jogging is not safe unless you are a long way from anyone else.

It seems that military intelligence in the US and UK have had wind of this since November.

According to limited information released by the UK government the top secret biological and chemical warfare unit Porton Down on Salisbury plain have had this virus for sometime and have this as top priority for four to five months. It is a very high security and top secret unit formed in WW I. It is surrounded by an absolute ring of steel and probably the most secret and secure unit in the UK, or in the world for that matter. It is on Salisbury Plain. I have been passed it a number of times. An how they say they have the most reliable PCR test for detection of this virus and a highly accurate ELISA antibody test. They now have population studies under way. The government also state they have a vaccine ready to undergo human trials in a month. They seem to have a high degree of confidence that this vaccine could be produced in quantity by sometime this fall. They are being assisted also by researchers from Oxford University which is not that far from Porton Down. The principle function of the Porton Down unit is thought to be defense from biological and chemical agents of warfare. There is an outside chance that this could be just such an event.

Here is an article by Robert Kuznia. He is a Pulitzer prize winning journalist. He grew up in Grand Forks and was one of a tight circle of friends of my son Andrew. This extremely bright and talented circle of friends who used to love to congregate at our house usually over fine food with the most stimulating of conversations. I have remained in contact with all of them, who have all risen to the tops of their chosen professions. Their math master who I knew told me that they were by far the brightest class he had ever had.

I sure hope that Porton Down deliver an ace in the hole! They are very experienced. In the recent Russian secret service poisoning cases Porton Down was not only able to quickly identify the agent as Novichok, but pinpoint the exact location in Russia were it had been produced.

My major concern is that this virus is going to increase in virulence and produce an even wider constellation of serious effects on more systems and functions. The ND physicians noted a significant number of patients presenting with intractable vomiting and resulting dehydration.

I am very afraid that this will not end until we have an effective vaccine produced in quantity. So this will likely not end soon. It will terminate with herd immunity of over 70% either by vaccine or case incidence. If by the latter we have to hope that immunity is long lived. If not we are in very, very serious trouble.

I have looked a little into the economic fall out. There seems to be a view that if these lock down have to go on longer than three months or have to be imposed recurrently, the impact will be severe. There seems to be enough resilience to tolerate three months of it. Unfortunately I fear it will go on longer than that. Singapore has got into serous trouble releasing too soon and too quickly.

For now the medical aspects will continue to dominate, and will what ever any politician tries to do or proposes. Right now community isolation is our only weapon and properly and intensively used it is highly effective and life saving.

In closing I personally am going to go out of my way to avoid purchasing any Chinese produced goods. Going forward I think we have to force regime change in China by whatever means. They are a clear and present danger.
 
Last edited:
GO-NAD!

GO-NAD!

Audioholic Ninja
It seems we have had a lot of useless and often unedifying bickering here of late, while this grave crisis grows ever more serious and far dwarfs any other crisis any of us have seen in our lifetimes.

I will get straight to the pint with Jerry. I have nothing against Chinese people, but I consider the Chinese leadership to be criminals who have to be brought to account.

They deliberately hid and tried to suppress this outbreak by violent repressive means of that there is no doubt. I miss trust anything they have to say at this point.

They should have cleaned up their vile wet markets years ago, as they had been advised by many. Although making them illegal they offered no enforcement. It is still open to conjecture whether that was truly the source or something more sinister. I will have more to say about that later.

Since that time they have run a concerted disinformation campaign.

Also this.

Inadvertently or not, and probably not they have hindered efforts to bring the pandemic under control.

The UK have received 3.5 million test kits from China all of them dud. The UK have cancelled their remaining 17.5 million and are demanding a refund.

The Dutch also received dud test kits, and unfortunately unlike the UK did not validate them, which has caused them to loose control of their targeted approach.

The governor of Minnesota stated today in his news conference that a large quantity of PPE ordered from China has been impounded without explanation by the Chinese military. Now according to the Chinese their epidemic is over. So either they are lying about that and actually they still have a problem, or they are deliberately hindering our response to the pandemic. Minnesota by the way is doing an excellent job of flattening the curve.

The thing that worries me is that it is clear this virus is becoming more dangerous over time, with increasing mortality and causing cardiac and neurological problems now. This needs control as fast as possible. Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit reported this case.

I have spent the last few days intensively covering the literature in case I am called on to function in a Telemedicine role. My wife has renewed her nursing license and doing 27 hour pharmacy course on line to get her nurse practitioner license back. It seems that older vulnerable physicians like me who go back to the front lines just add to the problem.

I took part in a North Dakota webinar on all this this evening. Due to the stupidity of the governor of ND, they have more cases than Minnesota!

They are seeing a lot of cases in Bismark and Fargo. The accounts from Fargo ICU physician Karla Johnson were extremely interesting. She is very experienced and said she had never encountered a disease with anything like these features before. It seems the virus seems to attack the elastic structure of the lung actually increasing lung compliance. She said she had never seen this before and nor have I. I have never seen a pulmonary problem putting a patient on a ventilator not decrease lung compliance. It also produces marked impairment of oxygen transfer. In addition some patients are developing classic ARDS. It is vital to distinguish the two. In addition they report neurological problems causing swallowing and especially speech problems. Others in the US are reporting this also. Damage to the heart has been noted world wide. The first case in Bismark a 37 year old from the oil fields who was on the ventilator went into atrial fibrillation and has markedly reduced cardiac contractility even at the time of discharge. It is unknown if he will have permanent cardiac damage. It seems in both Fargo and Bismark, about half the cases that come to the ER end up on the ventilator. Interestingly one Bismark case has developed Guillan Barre syndrome with paralysis. One thing I did take note of that in ND most of their ventilated patients were in their thirties for some reason.

In my view there has been far too much loose talk of this being a mild illness and not a very serious devastating one. This has no resemblance to seasonal flu what so ever. Herbu, if you still harbor any of your notions to the contrary dump them now!

The social restrictions have to follow the science as it unfolds. There is no quick end to this. I agree with our Minnesota governor that there is a significant risk of a further peak in the fall.

A study today from Belgium and Holland has shown that people who are working hard or exercising can spread a cloud of virus far and wide. So jogging is not safe unless you are a long way from anyone else.

It seems that military intelligence in the US and UK have had wind of this since November.

According to limited information released by the UK government the top secret biological and chemical warfare unit Porton Down on Salisbury plain have had this virus for sometime and have this as top priority for four to five months. It is a very high security and top secret unit formed in WW I. It is surrounded by an absolute ring of steel and probably the most secret and secure unit in the UK, or in the world for that matter. It is on Salisbury Plain. I have been passed it a number of times. An how they say they have the most reliable PCR test for detection of this virus and a highly accurate ELISA antibody test. They now have population studies under way. The government also state they have a vaccine ready to undergo human trials in a month. They seem to have a high degree of confidence that this vaccine could be produced in quantity by sometime this fall. They are being assisted also by researchers from Oxford University which is not that far from Porton Down. The principle function of the Porton Down unit is thought to be defense from biological and chemical agents of warfare. There is an outside chance that this could be just such an event.

Here is an article by Robert Kuznia. He is a Pulitzer prize winning journalist. He grew up in Grand Forks and was one of a tight circle of friends of my son Andrew. This extremely bright and talented circle of friends who used to love to congregate at our house usually over fine food with the most stimulating of conversations. I have remained in contact with all of them, who have all risen to the tops of their chosen professions. Their math master who I knew told me that they were by far the brightest class he had ever had.

I sure hope that Porton Down deliver an ace in the hole! They are very experienced. In the recent Russian secret service poisoning cases Porton Down was not only able to quickly identify the agent as Novichok, but pinpoint the exact location in Russia were it had been produced.

My major concern is that this virus is going to increase in virulence and produce an even wider constellation of serious effects on more systems and functions. The ND physicians noted a significant number of patients presenting with intractable vomiting and resulting dehydration.

I am very afraid that this will not end until we have an effective vaccine produced in quantity. So this will likely not end soon. It will terminate with herd immunity of over 70% either by vaccine or case incidence. If by the latter we have to hope that immunity is long lived. If not we are in very, very serious trouble.

I have looked a little into the economic fall out. There seems to be a view that if these lock down have to go on longer than three months or have to be imposed recurrently, the impact will be severe. There seems to be enough resilience to tolerate three months of it. Unfortunately I fear it will go on longer than that. Singapore has got into serous trouble releasing too soon and too quickly.

For now the medical aspects will continue to dominate, and will what ever any politician tries to do or proposes. Right now community isolation is our only weapon and properly and intensively used it is highly effective and life saving.

In closing I personally am going to go out of my way to avoid purchasing any Chinese produced goods. Going forward I think we have to force regime change in China by whatever means. They are a clear and present danger.
Thanks for this, Doc. And thanks for clarifying that you were referring to the Chinese government, rather than the Chinese people with your criticism. It just didn't come across that way in your post.

Sadly, I don't think regime change is in the cards for the foreseeable future. Xi has been consolidating his hold on power for a while now and it will be difficult to pry him out. They may have a communist government, but it's in name only. It's looking more and more like a fascist oligarchy as time goes by.

Trying to avoid Chinese-made products is going to be quite difficult, I'm afraid.
 
H

herbu

Audioholic Samurai
It seems we have had a lot of useless and often unedifying bickering here of late, while this grave crisis grows ever more serious and far dwarfs any other crisis any of us have seen in our lifetimes.

I will get straight to the pint with Jerry. I have nothing against Chinese people, but I consider the Chinese leadership to be criminals who have to be brought to account.

They deliberately hid and tried to suppress this outbreak by violent repressive means of that there is no doubt. I miss trust anything they have to say at this point.

They should have cleaned up their vile wet markets years ago, as they had been advised by many. Although making them illegal they offered no enforcement. It is still open to conjecture whether that was truly the source or something more sinister. I will have more to say about that later.

Since that time they have run a concerted disinformation campaign.

Also this.

Inadvertently or not, and probably not they have hindered efforts to bring the pandemic under control.

The UK have received 3.5 million test kits from China all of them dud. The UK have cancelled their remaining 17.5 million and are demanding a refund.

The Dutch also received dud test kits, and unfortunately unlike the UK did not validate them, which has caused them to loose control of their targeted approach.

The governor of Minnesota stated today in his news conference that a large quantity of PPE ordered from China has been impounded without explanation by the Chinese military. Now according to the Chinese their epidemic is over. So either they are lying about that and actually they still have a problem, or they are deliberately hindering our response to the pandemic. Minnesota by the way is doing an excellent job of flattening the curve.

The thing that worries me is that it is clear this virus is becoming more dangerous over time, with increasing mortality and causing cardiac and neurological problems now. This needs control as fast as possible. Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit reported this case.

I have spent the last few days intensively covering the literature in case I am called on to function in a Telemedicine role. My wife has renewed her nursing license and doing 27 hour pharmacy course on line to get her nurse practitioner license back. It seems that older vulnerable physicians like me who go back to the front lines just add to the problem.

I took part in a North Dakota webinar on all this this evening. Due to the stupidity of the governor of ND, they have more cases than Minnesota!

They are seeing a lot of cases in Bismark and Fargo. The accounts from Fargo ICU physician Karla Johnson were extremely interesting. She is very experienced and said she had never encountered a disease with anything like these features before. It seems the virus seems to attack the elastic structure of the lung actually increasing lung compliance. She said she had never seen this before and nor have I. I have never seen a pulmonary problem putting a patient on a ventilator not decrease lung compliance. It also produces marked impairment of oxygen transfer. In addition some patients are developing classic ARDS. It is vital to distinguish the two. In addition they report neurological problems causing swallowing and especially speech problems. Others in the US are reporting this also. Damage to the heart has been noted world wide. The first case in Bismark a 37 year old from the oil fields who was on the ventilator went into atrial fibrillation and has markedly reduced cardiac contractility even at the time of discharge. It is unknown if he will have permanent cardiac damage. It seems in both Fargo and Bismark, about half the cases that come to the ER end up on the ventilator. Interestingly one Bismark case has developed Guillan Barre syndrome with paralysis. One thing I did take note of that in ND most of their ventilated patients were in their thirties for some reason.

In my view there has been far too much loose talk of this being a mild illness and not a very serious devastating one. This has no resemblance to seasonal flu what so ever. Herbu, if you still harbor any of your notions to the contrary dump them now!

The social restrictions have to follow the science as it unfolds. There is no quick end to this. I agree with our Minnesota governor that there is a significant risk of a further peak in the fall.

A study today from Belgium and Holland has shown that people who are working hard or exercising can spread a cloud of virus far and wide. So jogging is not safe unless you are a long way from anyone else.

It seems that military intelligence in the US and UK have had wind of this since November.

According to limited information released by the UK government the top secret biological and chemical warfare unit Porton Down on Salisbury plain have had this virus for sometime and have this as top priority for four to five months. It is a very high security and top secret unit formed in WW I. It is surrounded by an absolute ring of steel and probably the most secret and secure unit in the UK, or in the world for that matter. It is on Salisbury Plain. I have been passed it a number of times. An how they say they have the most reliable PCR test for detection of this virus and a highly accurate ELISA antibody test. They now have population studies under way. The government also state they have a vaccine ready to undergo human trials in a month. They seem to have a high degree of confidence that this vaccine could be produced in quantity by sometime this fall. They are being assisted also by researchers from Oxford University which is not that far from Porton Down. The principle function of the Porton Down unit is thought to be defense from biological and chemical agents of warfare. There is an outside chance that this could be just such an event.

Here is an article by Robert Kuznia. He is a Pulitzer prize winning journalist. He grew up in Grand Forks and was one of a tight circle of friends of my son Andrew. This extremely bright and talented circle of friends who used to love to congregate at our house usually over fine food with the most stimulating of conversations. I have remained in contact with all of them, who have all risen to the tops of their chosen professions. Their math master who I knew told me that they were by far the brightest class he had ever had.

I sure hope that Porton Down deliver an ace in the hole! They are very experienced. In the recent Russian secret service poisoning cases Porton Down was not only able to quickly identify the agent as Novichok, but pinpoint the exact location in Russia were it had been produced.

My major concern is that this virus is going to increase in virulence and produce an even wider constellation of serious effects on more systems and functions. The ND physicians noted a significant number of patients presenting with intractable vomiting and resulting dehydration.

I am very afraid that this will not end until we have an effective vaccine produced in quantity. So this will likely not end soon. It will terminate with herd immunity of over 70% either by vaccine or case incidence. If by the latter we have to hope that immunity is long lived. If not we are in very, very serious trouble.

I have looked a little into the economic fall out. There seems to be a view that if these lock down have to go on longer than three months or have to be imposed recurrently, the impact will be severe. There seems to be enough resilience to tolerate three months of it. Unfortunately I fear it will go on longer than that. Singapore has got into serous trouble releasing too soon and too quickly.

For now the medical aspects will continue to dominate, and will what ever any politician tries to do or proposes. Right now community isolation is our only weapon and properly and intensively used it is highly effective and life saving.

In closing I personally am going to go out of my way to avoid purchasing any Chinese produced goods. Going forward I think we have to force regime change in China by whatever means. They are a clear and present danger.
Thanks, Doc. I do believe this is serious, but I'm still not clear on how serious. There seems to be a variety of numbers. Almost all of the "impact" projections are significantly dropping. I believe it is because some people focused on the "worst case" models and published those numbers. But for a number of reasons, we're not seeing the worst case. Perhaps that initial scare was necessary to get people to react. But a side affect was to sow distrust in those who recognized the models being used were not likely.

I'm also not clear on exactly what numbers are being reported. One woman in the press briefing said that in the US, anyone who died AND had the corona virus was being reported as a corona virus death. She said of all the "corona virus deaths", only 1.8% of them did not have a "serious preexisting condition". So a small % of people catch the virus, a small % of them need a hospital, a small % of them die, and a small % of them did not have a serious preexisting condition. So what is the real risk to a normal healthy person? I don't think anybody knows.

I'm worried about our return to normal and economic recovery. People will push their preexisting agenda. Numbers all over the scale will be used to support their position. Who will we trust? Where will the most accurate and realistic numbers come from? Conservatives will trust the President. Liberals will trust whomever disagrees with the President. So how are we going to get out of this? The recovery worries me.
 
H

herbu

Audioholic Samurai
Oh. I forgot. Somebody asked about my use of "B HO" to refer to Obama. I use it because it's pronounced, "Bee Hoe". I think it sounds funny. Though less cruel and offensive than many of the names you people use for "Trump", it's funny to me. Has nothing to do with race, religion, or anything else. Just funny.
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Audioholic Slumlord
Thanks, Doc. I do believe this is serious, but I'm still not clear on how serious. There seems to be a variety of numbers. Almost all of the "impact" projections are significantly dropping. I believe it is because some people focused on the "worst case" models and published those numbers. But for a number of reasons, we're not seeing the worst case. Perhaps that initial scare was necessary to get people to react. But a side affect was to sow distrust in those who recognized the models being used were not likely.

I'm also not clear on exactly what numbers are being reported. One woman in the press briefing said that in the US, anyone who died AND had the corona virus was being reported as a corona virus death. She said of all the "corona virus deaths", only 1.8% of them did not have a "serious preexisting condition". So a small % of people catch the virus, a small % of them need a hospital, a small % of them die, and a small % of them did not have a serious preexisting condition. So what is the real risk to a normal healthy person? I don't think anybody knows.

I'm worried about our return to normal and economic recovery. People will push their preexisting agenda. Numbers all over the scale will be used to support their position. Who will we trust? Where will the most accurate and realistic numbers come from? Conservatives will trust the President. Liberals will trust whomever disagrees with the President. So how are we going to get out of this? The recovery worries me.
You have asked a good question. Early models were made on the basis of Chinese data which probably were an under estimate.

Now you need to understand the R0, pronounced R naught. This is he number of people an infected person will infect. It progresses exponentially like this.



So the higher the R0 the more infectious it is. The first models were based in an R0 of 1.5. However according to the Minnesota department of health yesterday it is actually 2.4. So one person infects about two or three individuals. So like everything about this it is actually worse in just about every respect than anticipated actually.

Now you can see how lockdown and social distancing is highly effective in limiting spread. So as you limit contact you exponentially reduce the case incidence and by extension ICU admissions and fatalities.

Now the first models were based on business as usual with no social distancing. The new models are based on real data and reflect the effect of the lockdowns with social distancing.

The data actually shows that the lockdowns are better than would be projected in places like Minnesota. That is because Minnesotans started isolating before being told to. We did that. We seem to have smarter than average citizens here. We do have our share of coveidiots though.

So you see how one person ignoring the rules can kill others.

The thing that worries me the most, is that now one in 5 are going to hospital, and slightly over half of those going to the ICU. The mortality of those cases is going up. In New York and UK it is around 50%. The Chinese I think lied, but Italy and Spain have had pretty much the same experience. We are finding around a third of the ICU cases anyway are showing cardiac damage and no one knows if this will be permanent causing a huge burden of chronic disease. Far more younger fit people are becoming very ill and dying than anticipated. The cardiac problems are causing out of hospital and in ICU cardiac arrest. For some reason the usual measures to restart the heart pretty much always fail. This was the case of the previously healthy 13 year old on a ventilator in Kings College hospital. That patient arrested without warning and could not be resuscitated. The parents were upset that no one warned them.

In addition there are increasing reports of neurological problems.

As far as notating deaths, the estimates are low. Home deaths are not counted at present, but will be added. In terms of death certificates, they have to state the principal cause of death. So if a patient with heart disease gets Covid-19 the precipitate cause is the infection, so that will be marked as a covid-19 death as it should be.

Now since we have had ICUs there has never been a need to set up emergency ICUs and definitely not emergency hospitals like the Nightingale Hospitals in the UK. The 4000 bed hospital in the old East India Docks is now taking in patients. We have never had hospitals running out of ventilators and oxygen before. No influenza epidemic since the introduction of modern critical and hospitals has ever done that.

The economy I'm afraid will just have to take a back seat to all this for now. The medical data and this virus are in control and will determine the amount of economic disruption. That is a fact.

Probably like everything else about this infection, the economic disruption will be far worse than thought. Saving lives is the priority and money will be printed if it has to be, and lots of it I expect.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic
It also produces marked impairment of oxygen transfer.
TLS Guy, thanks for posting.

Was there any discussion about why this occurs?

I heard that there is a blog article out there somewhere (not peer reviewed)(I have not seen it) indicating that this virus apparently removes the iron ion (which binds oxygen)from hemoglobin. As a result, red blood cells are not transporting as much oxygen and oxygen saturation levels decrease. When these levels go down and cannot be maintained by giving the patient oxygen, people are being placed on ventilators and higher pressure is used in an effort to increase oxygen levels. But, this is ineffective because the RBCs cannot transport the oxygen. Also, the higher pressure damages the lungs.

According to this person, this may indicate that plasma with antibodies may not be helpful beyond a certain point, but whole blood transfusions may be.

I'm wondering why, according to the AP, that 80% of patients in NYC on ventilators die. This seems like a remarkably high percentage to me (I realize there are likely to be many contributing factors, and it's probably impossible to know right now).

Any comments you may have would be appreciated (at least by me, I can't speak for the rest of the crew here).
 
JerryLove

JerryLove

Audioholic Samurai
It's his initials.


What sounds funny is LBJ ... because that's Spanish for blow job.
Yes. But it seems that Obama is one of the few presidents with an oft-cited middle name specifically to tie into the "birther" movement that Obama is a secret muslim and non-natural-born American.

A false conspiracy theory that Trump is at the heart of and continued to push *long* after it was disproven.

herbu said:
Though less cruel and offensive than many of the names you people use for "Trump"
What do you mean "you people"?
 
JerryLove

JerryLove

Audioholic Samurai
I'm wondering why, according to the AP, that 80% of patients in NYC on ventilators die. This seems like a remarkably high percentage to me (I realize there are likely to be many contributing factors, and it's probably impossible to know right now).
There seem to be three major causes.

1) the ventilator is not a valid solution to the level of inflammation / non-function in the lungs.
2) complications (such as infection) from the ventilator (people on them for COVID19 are often on for weeks).
3) they die of some other issue related to the virus (like sepsis).

I think we cling to these so hard because 1) there's legit a shortage, 2) we want to think there's a fixable reason for the death rate.
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Audioholic Slumlord
There seem to be three major causes.

1) the ventilator is not a valid solution to the level of inflammation / non-function in the lungs.
2) complications (such as infection) from the ventilator (people on them for COVID19 are often on for weeks).
3) they die of some other issue related to the virus (like sepsis).

I think we cling to these so hard because 1) there's legit a shortage, 2) we want to think there's a fixable reason for the death rate.
There often is a fixable reason if you look hard.

I think realizing there are two types of lung injury is important. Deaths seem to most commonly occur from lung injury and the direct effects of the virus.

I think realizing there are two types of lung injury, is a big step forward. It is now differentiated as L and H types. The L seems commonest. It seems the usual plan of ventilation has probably been causing pneumatic injury. So this L type requires gently inflation pressure, avoiding high peak pressure and being very careful to minimize the inhalation/expiration pressure gradient coupled with very judicious use of PEEP. With this regime the hypoxia does seem fairly oxygen responsive. It seems to be reducing vent time according to anecdotal reports.

The less common H type is more akin to ARDS and requires standard care.

Hopefully good care will limit supervening septic episodes.

In closing I have to say your ultra woke posturing is frankly irritating. Saying you can't use Obama's middle initial is saying that you believe a Muslim name is inferior to a Christian one. That is patent nonsense.

Lastly I can assure you a ventilator is a very valid solution..
 

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