So where are we now? It is hard to see through the fog.
One thing we do know, is that this omicron variant is incredibly infectious, to an extent never seen before in a respiratory virus.
The big question is how sick do people get, and what immunity is there in the population? This latter makes comparison and using data from other countries, virtually impossible, because of widespread variations in vaccination rates and age.
Now predictions become highly inaccurate and prone to error. So this makes public health and policy guidelines virtually impossible to gauge at this time. The result is chaos, and widely divergent actions in many jurisdictions. Because of this, in the UK their is virtual paralysis and raging arguments, throughout government and the citizenry at large.
Basically what we have now is everyman for himself and individual actions taken in how risk averse they are. So this goes all the way from ignore it, experts are wrong and useless, to massive pull back on social mixing and engagement. This has hit the hospitality industry hard. However it is hard to see most wanting to go off to the pub for a Christmas booze up!
So what do we know about this highly infectious new variant?
Well UK data now strongly suggests that to the unvaccinated this variant is probably no more benign than Delta. However the UK is a highly vaccinated population now, with well over 90% double vaccinated and almost 50% now triple vaccinated and rising fast. Parts of London have low vaccination rates, and this has caused a serious problem, with the Mayo declaring a serious incident, which is in effect a state of emergency.
It seems that two doses of vaccine probably provide marginal benefit from at least serious disease, impact on death not known at this time. Three doses seem to offer pretty good protection against having to be admitted to hospital. Triple vaccination in not preventing a lot of breakthrough infections, so that many are getting a pretty rough few days at home.
It is now clear that everyone will be exposed to this virus sooner rather than later.
So that means with the current weapons we have there more likely than not will be a lot of people sick at home at one time. This is going to have a massive effect on commerce, and keeping hospitals in full operation a nightmare, to say nothing of schools.
Now Moderna say their half dose booster raises lab tested immunity by 35%, a little better than Pfizer at 27%, but probably not significantly so. They say a full booster dose, which I happened to receive, raises lab based immunity 85%. I think there is a trend showing that projections based on lab immunity are likely a little over optimistic.
Moderna say that an omicron specific vaccine is required, and will have one to trial early in the new year.
Now there is a push everywhere for the new antivirals, and calls for massive ramp ups of production. Unfortunately these compounds are complex, entirely synthetic, very hard and expensive to manufacture. So that will be a problem.
Now at this time it would be a good idea to assess your individual risk level by age,
from the latest CDC data. Your risk goes up fourfold at 30 to 39, and by 370 times at 85! I will be 75 in less than a month, which increases my risk by 150 times.
So, how to advise people.
Well first, if you are unvaccinated you are an idiot pure and simple. I agree with the Colorado governor, that if you are unvaccinated, get seriously ill or die, it is your own damn fault!
Obviously everyone eligible should get boosted ASAP.
I think obviously the older you are, the greater the precautions you need to take, and that includes the immunocompromised.
I think this variant is so transmissible that draconian lockdown measures are unlikely to be effective.
I would keep out of pubs and restaurants, and not go to events where there are large numbers of people, like concerts, cinemas, theaters etc.
I would limit your social gatherings, keep numbers down and try and make sure people you mix with are fully vaccinated, which should now include a booster.
I think this variant is so infectious that this peak is most likely to be a big, but a relatively brief one.
We may well run out of hospital capacity, so some that otherwise would go to the ICU will have to go to end of life care.
As of this morning we only had one open ICU bed in the whole Twin Cities metro.
Finally I do have a case I became aware of last night. The brother of our daughter in law, who is healthy in his late forties, living in California and is triple vaccinated, came down with a breakthrough case yesterday. He is not in hospital, but by all accounts is having a rough time of it. He was due to join us all for Christmas, so obviously those plans are off.
