Coronavirus

[Mr._Clark]

At the risk of being excessively negative, the potential for never-ending variants and vaccines is rather depressing.
It seems as if the virus's ability to mutate and spread may exceed our ability to develop and administer revised vaccines.

For example, we know the virus can spread widely in one year. If it takes a year to develop and administer a revised vaccine, variants could continuously arise and spread before a significant percentage of the population can be vaccinated with new revised vaccines against each new variant.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

>>>“I think we will have to get used to the idea of vaccinating and revaccinating in the autumn as we come to face these new variants,” Johnson told parliament. <<<

Get used to idea of re-vaccinating against COVID, UK PM Johnson says

British people should expect to receive repeated vaccinations against COVID-19 in future to keep pace with mutations of the virus, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Swerd]

At the risk of being excessively negative, the potential for never-ending variants and vaccines is rather depressing.
It seems as if the virus's ability to mutate and spread may exceed our ability to develop and administer revised vaccines.

For example, we know the virus can spread widely in one year. If it takes a year to develop and administer a revised vaccine, variants could continuously arise and spread before a significant percentage of the population can be vaccinated with new revised vaccines against each new variant.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

This future of "never-ending variants & vaccines" for SARS-CoV-2 was always in the cards from the beginning. This virus was too infectious to go away on it's own. Unfortunately, few people saw it that way this past year. However, I see a less negative future than what you fear.

If we can get enough people vaccinated in the next two years (one year is too optimistic), the virus won't disappear, but it will be much less widespread. It will be suppressed but not eliminated. The variants we've seen so far can also be suppressed with edited vaccines directed against the variant spike proteins. Remember also that the vaccines we've seen so far are only the first efforts. Other vaccines are in the works. Some could be much better at controlling the virus.

This past year was the outbreak year for SARS-CoV-2. It ran amok in a population never previously exposed to it. Because of large numbers of infections – and the resulting very large amount of virus reproduction events – plenty of mutations emerged. Some of them became successful mutations. In the future, this virus (or it's mutated progeny) will still be around, but because of vaccination they won't infect such a large percentage of the population. With widespread vaccination, we'll see fewer new mutations because the infection rate will be lower.

At the risk of being a rosy-eyed optimist, I'll raise a purely theoretical idea. Evolution tells us the virus's future depends on it being highly infectious, but less fatal to it's human hosts. This is what clearly happened with the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19. In those first years, it also ran amok, killing millions world wide. But it also evolved. All of today's flu strains are direct decedents of that Spanish Flu virus – we have DNA sequence evidence to prove this. But the progeny of the Spanish Flu evolved to become a much smaller threat to the human population. I'd like to believe that SARS-CoV-2 will do the same. We can help tame it sooner by rapid and widespread vaccinations.

 

[Mr._Clark]

This future of "never-ending variants & vaccines" for SARS-CoV-2 was always in the cards from the beginning. This virus was too infectious to go away on it's own. Unfortunately, few people saw it that way this past year. However, I see a less negative future than what you fear.

If we can get enough people vaccinated in the next two years (one year is too optimistic), the virus won't disappear, but it will be much less widespread. It will be suppressed but not eliminated. The variants we've seen so far can also be suppressed with edited vaccines directed against the variant spike proteins. Remember also that the vaccines we've seen so far are only the first efforts. Other vaccines are in the works. Some could be much better at controlling the virus.

This past year was the outbreak year for SARS-CoV-2. It ran amok in a population never previously exposed to it. Because of large numbers of infections – and the resulting very large amount of virus reproduction events – plenty of mutations emerged. Some of them became successful mutations. In the future, this virus (or it's mutated progeny) will still be around, but because of vaccination they won't infect such a large percentage of the population. With widespread vaccination, we'll see fewer new mutations because the infection rate will be lower.

At the risk of being a rosy-eyed optimist, I'll raise a purely theoretical idea. Evolution tells us the virus's future depends on being highly infectious, but less fatal to it's human hosts. This is what clearly happened with the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19. In those first years, it also ran amok, killing millions world wide. But it also evolved. All of today's flu strains are direct decedents of that Spanish Flu virus – we have DNA sequence evidence to prove this. But the progeny of the Spanish Flu evolved to become a much smaller threat to the human population. I'd like to believe that SARS-CoV-2 will do the same. We can help tame it sooner by rapid and widespread vaccinations.

I hope you are right.

I ran across an interesting article on this topic. Killer T cells got some good press:

>>>It will be difficult to know from serum samples if or when a mutant has escaped a vaccine, partly because researchers do not know where to draw the line between an immune response that is protective against SARS-CoV-2 and one that is not. “We don’t know for sure exactly what kinds of immune responses or what antibody titers are truly necessary for clinical vaccine protection in humans,” says Barouch. When he and his colleagues transferred convalescent serum to macaques and challenged them with SARS-CoV-2, they found that relatively low antibody levels protected the primates, but only if the serum contained adequate levels of CD8+ killer T cells.

The involvement of these T cells, which kill cells infected with virus, complicates the picture. Having more CD8+ T cells is linked to milder COVID-19. So far, from his calculations, Sette says the T cells stimulated by vaccines or infection to an early lineage of SARS-CoV-2 should largely recognize the new variants. He studied T cell responses in COVID-19 and found that an average person’s T cells recognize multiple parts of SARS-CoV-2—“at least 15 to 20 different pieces,” he says, including on the spike and several other proteins. For that reason, he concludes, “it is very unlikely that the virus could mutate to escape T cell recognition.”

Some vaccines are suspected to provoke a stronger T cell response than others do. Vector-based and mRNA vaccines, for example, mirror natural infection with SARS-CoV-2, forming the spike protein inside cells—a process that is thought to strongly activate killer T cells, says Barouch, whereas “protein-based and inactivated-virus vaccines generally don’t raise a strong CD8 T cell response.” Chemical adjuvants used in protein and inactivated-virus vaccines may promote killer T cells, says Sette, and side-by-side comparisons of T cell and antibodies have not been done yet between vaccines.<<<

Vaccines Versus the Mutants

Facing new variants of SARS-CoV-2, some vaccines may offer more robust protection or be more easily redesigned to target them.

www.the-scientist.com

 

[Swerd]

Thanks for the link to that article. It was a good explanation of how CD8+ Killer T-cells can work. It also explained some of the differences between antibody-based immunity and T-cell-based immunity. I find all that hard to explain to others, so I appreciated that article.

One of the key differences is that immune T-cells recognize larger fragments of the target spike protein than antibodies do. As T-cell precursors develop in response to a vaccine or an infection, the target protein is broken up into pieces, roughly as large as 20-25 amino acids long. Proteins the size of the corona virus spike protein can be cut up into as many as 15-20 different pieces (see quote below). Each of these pieces become targets for different killer T-cells and their progeny (or clones as they are sometimes called). It's hard to imagine a single point mutation where a single amino acid is changed in the spike protein that could escape all those different T-cell clones.

The involvement of these T cells, which kill cells infected with virus, complicates the picture. Having more CD8+ T cells is linked to milder COVID-19. So far, from his calculations, Sette says the T cells stimulated by vaccines or infection to an early lineage of SARS-CoV-2 should largely recognize the new variants. He studied T cell responses in COVID-19 and found that an average person’s T cells recognize multiple parts of SARS-CoV-2—“at least 15 to 20 different pieces,” he says, including on the spike and several other proteins. For that reason, he concludes, “it is very unlikely that the virus could mutate to escape T cell recognition.”

 

[highfigh]

OK, just because it's only about a year old and because we don't have decades of history with this particular strain-

what if:

It may have existed for years, but was confined to its supposed source country of China?

They may have already developed some level of herd immunity?

If the reports are true about the idea that the Chinese manipulated the Bat-borne virus and made it possible to jump to humans (remember, this is only hypothetical), could this be the new version of giving blankets used by Small Pox patients to the Native people by the settlers in America? It would accomplish the same thing since the rest of the World had no immunity.

 

[Swerd]

OK, just because it's only about a year old and because we don't have decades of history with this particular strain-

what if:

It may have existed for years, but was confined to its supposed source country of China?

They may have already developed some level of herd immunity?

It may be only, as you say, hypothetical. But it's completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Where is any evidence that might support such a hypothetical idea? If this virus had been out among people in China, how could it be confined to only China? We have all witnessed how rapidly it spread.

If the reports are true about the idea that the Chinese manipulated the Bat-borne virus and made it possible to jump to humans (remember, this is only hypothetical), could this be the new version of giving blankets used by Small Pox patients to the Native people by the settlers in America? It would accomplish the same thing since the rest of the World had no immunity.

Utterly batshit crazy – not worthy of further comment. Stop believing Faux News.

 

[GO-NAD!]

I remember when the Russian vaccine came out, it was greeted with much disdain. Has it been vindicated after all?

Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine candidate appears safe and effective - The Lancet

 

[Trell]

I remember when the Russian vaccine came out, it was greeted with much disdain. Has it been vindicated after all?

Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine candidate appears safe and effective - The Lancet

I seem to recall that it was more about a deep distrust of the validation/test of the vaccine than the vaccine as such. You would have a similar response if Trump had similar power as Putin over handling of the vaccine development, not for lack of trying, mind you.

 

[Swerd]

I remember when the Russian vaccine came out, it was greeted with much disdain. Has it been vindicated after all?

Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine candidate appears safe and effective - The Lancet

Most of us who served in the military during the Cold War quickly learned to never underestimate the Russians. Their science & technology can be good, especially if you challenge them. Russian politicians can bluff like no one else, and until now, that was the problem with the Sputnik vaccine. It was highly touted by a politician KGB thug, Putin.

 

[Trell]

It may be only, as you say, hypothetical. But it's completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Where is any evidence that might support such a hypothetical idea? If this virus had been out among people in China, how could it be confined to only China? We have all witnessed how rapidly it spread.
Utterly batshit crazy – not worthy of further comment. Stop believing Faux News.

It's so batshit crazy that you even edited out the OP name from your quote in the vain hope he would delete his post, and that is mighty kind of you

Edit: Spelling

 

[Trell]

Most of us who served in the military during the Cold War quickly learned to never underestimate the Russians. Their science & technology can be good, especially if you challenge them. Russian politicians can bluff like no one else, and until now, that was the problem with the Sputnik vaccine. It was highly touted by a politician, Putin.

Exactly!

 

[GO-NAD!]

Most of us who served in the military during the Cold War quickly learned to never underestimate the Russians. Their science & technology can be good, especially if you challenge them. Russian politicians can bluff like no one else, and until now, that was the problem with the Sputnik vaccine. It was highly touted by a politician, Putin.

I'm well-aware that the Russians can produce some amazing stuff when they put their minds to it. But, I recall the response from western countries upon the announcement of the Sputnik vaccine was laden with skepticism. That's the problem with the Russian regime - so much utter BS emanates from them, it's difficult to give them credit when they have a success.

 

[Trell]

...That's the problem with the Russian regime - so much utter BS emanates from them, it's difficult to give them credit when they have a success.

Not to side track this thread too much, but the same goes for Trump. Prison reform comes to mind.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Humanized monoclonal antibodies against the IL-6R (Tocilizumab, Acetmra by Hoffman-LaRoche) are already licensed for use against rheumatoid arthritis (RA), are being tested now in Covid-19 patients.

Recent results for tocilizumab seem to be okay, but the reduction in fatalities from 33% to 29% strikes me as modest (albeit better than nothing).

>>>Arthritis drug tocilizumab cuts deaths from Covid

Researchers say around half of people admitted to hospital with Covid could benefit from the treatment.
They have carried out a clinical trial with more than 4,000 volunteers, like Wendy, and say the results are "tremendous".
Half of these Covid patients were given tocilizumab, via a drip, alongside usual care with a life-saving cheap steroid drug called dexamethasone.
In that group, compared to another group that did not receive the new drug:

• tocilizumab cut death risk - 596 (29%) of the patients in the tocilizumab group died within 28 days compared with 694 (33%) patients in the usual care group
• and it reduced the chance of a patient needing to go on a ventilator or dying from 38% to 33%

Combined, tocilizumab and dexamethasone should cut death risk by about a third for patients on oxygen and halve it for those on a ventilator, the researchers say.<<<

Arthritis drug tocilizumab cuts deaths from Covid

Giving it along with a steroid drug can help the sickest patients with Covid-19, research reveals.

www.bbc.com

 

[Mr._Clark]

It may be only, as you say, hypothetical. But it's completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Where is any evidence that might support such a hypothetical idea? If this virus had been out among people in China, how could it be confined to only China? We have all witnessed how rapidly it spread.
Utterly batshit crazy – not worthy of further comment. Stop believing Faux News.

At the risk of earning an official batshit crazy award of sorts, it seems to me that a lot of people conflate: 1) the notion that that the virus was engineered by the Chinese, with: 2) the theory that the virus was natural, but jumped from animals to humans due to carelessness at a Chinese lab. The second of these does not strike me as being batshit crazy.

Having said that, neither seem likely at this point.

>>>Another focus of the WHO’s investigation was the idea that the virus leaked from a lab — a scenario that the team found unlikely. Peter Ben Embarek, a food-safety and zoonosis scientist with the WHO in Geneva, Switzerland, who headed the investigation, said at the press conference that the team had conducted extensive discussions with staff at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which has been at the centre of the speculation, and similar labs nearby. He said a leak is unlikely because the virus was not known to scientists before December 2019. The team reviewed health records in the city and surrounding Hubei province from the second half of 2019, looking for unusual fluctuations in influenza-like illnesses and severe respiratory infections, pharmacy purchases for cold and cough medications, and deaths specifically related to pneumonia. It also retrospectively tested some 4,500 patient samples for SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA, and analysed blood samples for antibodies against the virus. The researchers found no evidence that the virus was circulating in the city before December 2019.

But the lack of clear signals of transmission does not mean that the virus wasn’t already established in the community, says Dwyer. The team’s analysis was based on limited data and a surveillance system not designed to catch a virus that could spread silently. To assess properly whether the virus arrived earlier, researchers would have to track what was happening in the wider community, not just in health facilities, he says.<<<

COVID origin search must continue after WHO report, say scientists

Investigation team rules out idea that the coronavirus came from a laboratory leak, but offers two hypotheses popular in Chinese media.

www.nature.com

 

[Swerd]

Recent results for tocilizumab seem to be okay, but the reduction in fatalities from 33% to 29% strikes me as modest (albeit better than nothing).

It was worth a look see at the time, but now that we see the results, 33% vs. 29% is not worth much. What seemed like a good idea turns out to be of little value. It doesn't really cause harm, but there's not much benefit.

Oh well. In truth, that's what happens in most clinical trials.

 

[Trell]

At the risk of earning an official batshit crazy award of sorts, it seems to me that a lot of people conflate: 1) the notion that that the virus was engineered by the Chinese, with: 2) the theory that the virus was natural, but jumped from animals to humans due to carelessness at a Chinese lab. The second of these does not strike me as being batshit crazy.
...

Nah, you have many more miles to walk before earning that reward

Considering how the Chinese government have acted, and acts, I'd say that this was a military experiment that very bad.

 

[Swerd]

At the risk of earning an official batshit crazy award of sorts, it seems to me that a lot of people conflate: 1) the notion that that the virus was engineered by the Chinese, with: 2) the theory that the virus was natural, but jumped from animals to humans due to carelessness at a Chinese lab. The second of these does not strike me as being batshit crazy.

I agree. There is a great difference between 1) and 2). One doesn't have to be a scientist to see the difference.

I have to wonder what the WHO investigative team thought they could learn by visiting Wuhan an entire year after the virus outbreak. If the Chinese had nothing to hide, any evidence trail had been cold for a long time. And if the Chinese did have something to hide, they would have had plenty of time to sanitize things before the WHO arrived. So we are left knowing little or nothing more than we knew before the WHO visit.

At the same time, I'm shocked by and absolutely opposed to suggestions, coming from certain politicians, that the Chinese unleashed deadly biological warfare on the rest of the world. These deluded individuals grossly overestimate their future political chances, and are desperate for attention. It goes without saying that they have no supporting evidence what-so-ever for their claims.

 

[Trell]

I agree. There is a great difference between 1) and 2). One doesn't have to be a scientist to see the difference.

I have to wonder what the WHO investigative team thought they could learn by visiting Wuhan an entire year after the virus outbreak. If the Chinese had nothing to hide, any evidence trail had been cold for a long time. And if the Chinese did have something to hide, they would have had plenty of time to sanitize things before the WHO arrived. So we are left knowing little or nothing more than we knew before the WHO visit.

At the same time, I'm shocked by and absolutely opposed to suggestions, coming from certain politicians, that the Chinese unleashed deadly biological warfare on the rest of the world. These deluded individuals grossly overestimate their future political chances, and are desperate for attention. It goes without saying that they have no supporting evidence what-so-ever for their claims.

The Chinese government is an extremely brutal dictatorship with absolutely no regard for human life. Anything they say is suspect, to put it mildly, as with all authoritarian regimes.

Edit: The virus could very well have been engineered by the Chinese, for various reasons that is not necessarily bad, but then released by accident.

 

[Mr._Clark]

I agree. There is a great difference between 1) and 2). One doesn't have to be a scientist to see the difference.

I have to wonder what the WHO investigative team thought they could learn by visiting Wuhan an entire year after the virus outbreak. If the Chinese had nothing to hide, any evidence trail had been cold for a long time. And if the Chinese did have something to hide, they would have had plenty of time to sanitize things before the WHO arrived. So we are left knowing little or nothing more than we knew before the WHO visit.

At the same time, I'm shocked by and absolutely opposed to suggestions, coming from certain politicians, that the Chinese unleashed deadly biological warfare on the rest of the world. These deluded individuals grossly overestimate their future political chances, and are desperate for attention. It goes without saying that they have no supporting evidence what-so-ever for their claims.

Just for the heck of it I did some google searching to see if there are any experts who still think the virus might have escaped from the lab. There seem to be a few who are not convinced the WHO investigation revealed much of anything.

As a general rule, I don't believe anything the Chinese government says.

>>>“If the only information you're allowing to be weighed is provided by the very people who have everything to lose by revealing such evidence, that just doesn't come close to passing the sniff test,” said David A. Relman, a microbiologist at Stanford University.

Relman suggested that the WHO team should have sought complete, detailed records from the laboratories about their experiments and the raw genomic sequence data of their research going back a decade.

Raina MacIntyre, professor of biosecurity at the University of New South Wales in Australia, was also surprised to see the idea of a lab accident ruled out so quickly.

Without exploring all leads, she suggested, “we may never know the origins of this virus.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-who-china-investigation-wuhan/2021/02/09/2af3c44c-6a79-11eb-a66e-e27046e9e898_story.html