highfigh

highfigh

Audioholic Overlord
Funny, but the sad thing is that many believes things like your joke.
I want more data about how diet affects this kind of thing- I know early reports mentioned underlying health issues and since those are often caused by long-term bad diet, I think it's essential that it be discussed in much more detail. They said Vitamin D was a factor, some said it isn't.

To be honest, it's easy to ignore health issues if someone doesn't have many definite symptoms but anyone who thinks the US is generally healthy is in denial. Fast food is crap, it's killing people and that industry isn't held responsible for it.Sure, they put nutritional info on the wrappers, but who reads it when it's on the bottom? PArt of the problem is that healthy food is so much more expensive than fast food and nobody wants to take the time to learn if/what the place sells is safe to eat. Salt, sugar and fat are killing people at an alarming rate.
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Audioholic Slumlord
Boris Johnson will address the nation again in a little over two hours. He said yesterday he would take a few days to make decisions to change the rules again. Now it looks as if his hand has been forced. The leader of the opposition, Sir Keir Starmer is calling for much more robust restrictions. I will report on this later.

Meanwhile this video shows the mood of the people.
 
Trell

Trell

Audioholic Field Marshall
I want more data about how diet affects this kind of thing- I know early reports mentioned underlying health issues and since those are often caused by long-term bad diet, I think it's essential that it be discussed in much more detail. They said Vitamin D was a factor, some said it isn't.

To be honest, it's easy to ignore health issues if someone doesn't have many definite symptoms but anyone who thinks the US is generally healthy is in denial. Fast food is crap, it's killing people and that industry isn't held responsible for it.Sure, they put nutritional info on the wrappers, but who reads it when it's on the bottom? PArt of the problem is that healthy food is so much more expensive than fast food and nobody wants to take the time to learn if/what the place sells is safe to eat. Salt, sugar and fat are killing people at an alarming rate.
I sincerely doubt that any dietary change will have any effect (positive or negative) in the general population on the short term with respect to this virus. What you have eaten is what you have eaten, and the most important thing is to look forward to get a vaccine as quick as possible.

For the longer term, a change to a more healthy diet along with exercise will have a positive impact, and no-one disputes that.
 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Spartan
Despite what you may read or hear, no diet can substitute for a vaccine to provide immunity to viral or bacterial diseases. The only substitute that exists in nature, is surviving a real infection. If we could ask the more than 350,000 people in the USA who didn't survive Covid-19, I'm pretty sure most of them would choose the vaccine over the infection.

A person who eats a generally healthy diet is more likely to survive and recover from such an infection. But no promises can be made for uninfected people, unless they are vaccinated.
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Audioholic Slumlord
I want more data about how diet affects this kind of thing- I know early reports mentioned underlying health issues and since those are often caused by long-term bad diet, I think it's essential that it be discussed in much more detail. They said Vitamin D was a factor, some said it isn't.

To be honest, it's easy to ignore health issues if someone doesn't have many definite symptoms but anyone who thinks the US is generally healthy is in denial. Fast food is crap, it's killing people and that industry isn't held responsible for it.Sure, they put nutritional info on the wrappers, but who reads it when it's on the bottom? PArt of the problem is that healthy food is so much more expensive than fast food and nobody wants to take the time to learn if/what the place sells is safe to eat. Salt, sugar and fat are killing people at an alarming rate.
We have been over this ground before. Yes, a low vit D level is a risk factor. However Vit D toxicity is a more common problem than deficiency. Vitamin D supplements contain outrageously high does of vitamin D and and are a hazard.

If you are not caucasian and live in the North in wither, you should probably take a vitamin D supplement. If you are caucasian and tan easily you probably don't need vit D supplements. If you do take one, then do not take more than 1000 IU of vitamin D daily and just in the winter.
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Audioholic Slumlord
The whole UK is now under Tier 5 restrictions. It is agreed that if strong measures are not taken, seriously ill people will not be able to receive care in 21 days.

So there is a strict stay at home order, except for essential workers. Shielding has been reintroduced for the medically vulnerable. All schools including primary schools are to close. All non essential businesses to close. These restrictions are expected to last three months.

One encouraging sign is possibly starting to show up from the aggressive vaccine campaign. The UK has vaccinated more people than the rest of Europe combined. The French have only managed to vaccinate 560 people so far! Anyhow there are early signs that the death rate of the over 80 population is in decline. This may be a early vaccine effect.

The bad news is that the death rate of the younger patients below 60 is rising fast. This is probably due to the new Kent mutation.

There is extreme worry in the UK, about the new South African variant. All borders and travel with other countries, other than that deemed absolutely essential are banned.

My view is that these measures are long overdue in the US. I also think that non essential interstate travel needs to stop.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Audioholic Overlord
I sincerely doubt that any dietary change will have any effect (positive or negative) in the general population on the short term with respect to this virus. What you have eaten is what you have eaten, and the most important thing is to look forward to get a vaccine as quick as possible.

For the longer term, a change to a more healthy diet along with exercise will have a positive impact, and no-one disputes that.
Short-term, I agree that it's not likely to make a huge difference, partly because we couldn't tolerate ingesting a great quantity of whatever we're lacking and because it takes time to build up and be used by our bodies.

The problem- the medical profession is too busy putting out the dumpster fire to look at details that need attention for the long term survival of the human specie.

Always a day late and a dollar short, as they say.
 
highfigh

highfigh

Audioholic Overlord
We have been over this ground before. Yes, a low vit D level is a risk factor. However Vit D toxicity is a more common problem than deficiency. Vitamin D supplements contain outrageously high does of vitamin D and and are a hazard.

If you are not caucasian and live in the North in wither, you should probably take a vitamin D supplement. If you are caucasian and tan easily you probably don't need vit D supplements. If you do take one, then do not take more than 1000 IU of vitamin D daily and just in the winter.
Right, but with so many people self-medicating, I believe many are poisoning themselves with many substances other than any additions they may have.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Senior Audioholic
This is an interesting, if grim, comparison between predicted fatalities due to higher R value vs higher lethality:

>>>In the Atlantic, sociologist Zeynep Tufecki cites the work of Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, to explain why an increase in transmissibility is such an alarming development:


Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time.<<<
 
M

Mr._Clark

Senior Audioholic
The U.S. is way behind in terms of the number of virus samples being sequenced. Flying blind (or close to blind) seems to be the standard operating procedure here.

>>>The United States is now sequencing about 3,000 samples a week and the CDC hopes to more than double that to about 6,500 per week, according to Dr. Gregory Armstrong, director of the Office of Advanced Molecular Detection at the CDC's National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases. . . .

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the US has submitted about 57,000 genomic sequences to GISAID, a centralized database used by countries around the world. In comparison, the UK has had far fewer infections but has submitted about 141,000 sequences.<<<

 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Audioholic Slumlord
The U.S. is way behind in terms of the number of virus samples being sequenced. Flying blind (or close to blind) seems to be the standard operating procedure here.

>>>The United States is now sequencing about 3,000 samples a week and the CDC hopes to more than double that to about 6,500 per week, according to Dr. Gregory Armstrong, director of the Office of Advanced Molecular Detection at the CDC's National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases. . . .

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the US has submitted about 57,000 genomic sequences to GISAID, a centralized database used by countries around the world. In comparison, the UK has had far fewer infections but has submitted about 141,000 sequences.<<<

That is because the UK has Porton Down, which has basically become the world's reference lab for genetic sequencing. The US response has been shameful and a total embarrassment.
 
D

Dude#1279435

Full Audioholic
It was a random mutation. Although the Isle of Sheppey, is an odd place to be the origin of this mutant strain, the evidence is overwhelming that that is where it started.
Although largely rural, it is very close to the huge population center of the Medway Towns. When growing up in the Medway Towns, I could see Sheppey from my bedroom window. Kent is the most populous county in the UK, although it is far from the largest in square miles. It is also right on the London rim.
No idea what caused the new mutation?
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Audioholic Slumlord
No idea what caused the new mutation?
It is what organisms do. Their genetics change over time. The more you allow it to reproduce, the more it becomes unstable, and new forms will develop.

This is another reason for severe restrictions of populations and not letting the virus rip.

That is why the whole world has to be immunized. Until we do, we will go from crisis to crisis. At the current rate it is now estimated it will take until sometime 2023 to get the job done.

India was to start third world vaccinations, but because of what is happening there, they have now put a ban on exporting their vaccines until May.

The wealthy countries need to be building and expanding vaccine plants as a top priority. If the world does not move on this we will keep chasing our tails.
 
Old Onkyo

Old Onkyo

Audioholic Chief
Recent update.

India has given approval to the Oxford vaccine, known in India as Covishield.

They have also given approval to an Indian developed killed vaccine. This vaccine (Covivax) has only completed phase 1 an II clinical trials. They seem to be intent on using early roll out as there phase III trial, and study all those that receive it. I suppose if you have a high transmission rate, you would see a significant reduction in cases in the vaccinated compared to those who have not received the vaccine yet.

Now this pandemic is taking such a serious turn, it does present an ethical dilemma for phase III trials of new vaccines not yet approved. You now have to ask the question, if it is ethical to do a placebo controlled trial, when there are known effective vaccines. So from now on the arms I feel are going to have to be new vaccine versus and known effective vaccine. I suspect this may be part of the thinking of the Indian regulator.

For Covaxin, however, the regulator granted an approval “in clinical trial mode.”

["Experts appeared surprised by this qualifier. When asked what the phrase means, Gagandeep Kang, a microbiology professor at Christian Medical College in the southern city of Vellore, told The Times of India, “I have no clue. I have never seen anything like this before.”

Health minister Vardhan has explained that the “clinical trial mode” would mean that all vaccine recipients will be tracked as if they’re in a trial, and that the approval would add another tool to India’s arsenal against the coronavirus. But given that all vaccine recipients must register with the government, it’s unclear how tracking for Covaxin will differ or be more robust than that for the Covishield vaccine."]

Of concern, Sir John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford University, has raised serious concerns as to whether the current vaccines will be effective against the new South African mutation. According to him genome studies in Oxford, show more significant changes to the virus resulting in changes to the S-spike protein
This strain is even more infectious than the Kent strain. This is a big problem. Professor Bell thinks the new vaccines may well need to be edited. He feels this could be done for the Oxford vaccine in a six to eight week time frame
This is something that will have to be kept under constant review.

Unfortunately this highlights that we may now be over optimistic that this pandemic will end this year. One thing is clear to me that travel needs to be severely limited until this is sorted out. Clearly there needs to be enormous effort given to control the spread of this latest variant until more is known about it.
First, I want to sincerely thank you for your contributions to this thread. I look forward to reading your updates.

When you say travel needs to be curtailed, I have been flabbergasted that minimally Interstate airline travel in the United States has not been suspended since Nov. 1st. The surge was predicted, tied in large part to holiday travel. The airline industry has enjoyed government bailout in the past, and looking forward can expect redress To keep it viable.

With open national air travel, will the hotspots for the virus move as people move?
Nevermind saw your earlier comment on the issue.
 
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M

Mr._Clark

Senior Audioholic
But there was abundant empirical evidence that the vaccine was effective. It wasn't fake.

His statement was ambiguous. "People who received the vaccinations would think they had been vaccinated against the virus when in fact they were not", could mean one of two different things:
  1. That he couldn't accept the idea that the vaccine contained no virus, but could immunize against the virus. The injection contained a mixture of mRNA (encoding the virus spike protein) and lipid nanoparticles, but no virus. Only a devout anti-vaxer could believe such nonsense. That's how I understood his admission – as a plea for others to recognize his wisdom – that he was trying to save people from the evil drug companies.

  2. Or, that he intended to degrade the vaccinations by deliberately allowing them to warm up over two nights, rendering them useless. That would not only be an admission of his destructiveness and his guilt, it would also be an admission that he knew the vaccine was potent before he sabotaged it.
I favor the first.
He supposedly thought the vaccine was unsafe. Trying to understand the motive of someone who is nuts can be challenging.

>>A Wisconsin pharmacist convinced the world was “crashing down” told police he tried to ruin hundreds of doses of coronavirus vaccine because he believed the shots would mutate people’s DNA, according to court documents released Monday. . . .

A detective wrote in a probable cause statement that Brandenburg, 46, is an admitted conspiracy theorist and that he told investigators he intentionally tried to ruin the vaccine because it could hurt people by changing their DNA. <<<

 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Spartan
He supposedly thought the vaccine was unsafe. Trying to understand the motive of someone who is nuts can be challenging.

>>A Wisconsin pharmacist convinced the world was “crashing down” told police he tried to ruin hundreds of doses of coronavirus vaccine because he believed the shots would mutate people’s DNA, according to court documents released Monday. . . .

A detective wrote in a probable cause statement that Brandenburg, 46, is an admitted conspiracy theorist and that he told investigators he intentionally tried to ruin the vaccine because it could hurt people by changing their DNA. <<<
Experienced registered hospital pharmacists in Wisconsin not only believe in molecular nonsense, they also believe their illegal acts of destruction can save the world.

Note to self: Never get sick in Wisconsin.
 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Spartan
No idea what caused the new mutation?
It is what organisms do. Their genetics change over time. The more you allow it to reproduce, the more it becomes unstable, and new forms will develop.

This is another reason for severe restrictions of populations and not letting the virus rip.
To add to what TLS Guy said, viruses reproduce rapidly and they have little or no error correction mechanisms. On average, most viruses generate random mutations about once every million times their genome reproduces. In contrast animal cells generate mutations once every billion reproductions. They have elaborate error detection and repair mechanisms.

The problem is that one virus particle infecting a cell can produce hundreds or thousands of virus particles. Each of those new particles has a copy of the newly reproduced virus genome. In contrast, one animal cell divides to make two cells as fast as once in 24 hours, but often much slower. So, it's easy for viruses to generate quite a lot of mutations in a short amount of time. When infectious viruses rip through an unimmunized population, such as with Covid-19, there will be plenty of new mutations.

The only way to stop this is to wear masks and keep your distance from others, until we can get vaccinated.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Senior Audioholic
To add to what TLS Guy said, viruses reproduce rapidly and they have little or no error correction mechanisms. On average, most viruses generate random mutations about once every million times their genome reproduces. In contrast animal cells generate mutations once every billion reproductions. They have elaborate error detection and repair mechanisms.

The problem is that one virus particle infecting a cell can produce hundreds or thousands of virus particles. Each of those new particles has a copy of the newly reproduced virus genome. In contrast, one animal cell divides to make two cells as fast as once in 24 hours, but often much slower. So, it's easy for viruses to generate quite a lot of mutations in a short amount of time. When infectious viruses rip through an unimmunized population, such as with Covid-19, there will be plenty of new mutations.

The only way to stop this is to wear masks and keep your distance from others, until we can get vaccinated.
I've read some articles to the effect that mutations have led to weaker strains in India (Muller's Ratchet). From what I've seen so far, this strikes me as speculative.

I'm skeptical of the Muller's Ratchet in general because viruses continue to evolve and infect numerous species.

>>>The researchers put forth the theory that this loss of stability may be responsible for the lower national fatality rate. In India, after the initial phase in which the fatality steadily went up for four weeks, to peak at 38% on April 11, 2020, it declined sharply until it reached 5% on June 28, 2020, the date at which the researchers last obtained their data. However, the mutation rate was increasing during this period from March to May 2020.

They suggest, “Could Muller’s ratchet be a player in shaping SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary dynamics in India?” In other words, the virus could be gradually extinguishing itself under the accumulating weight of deleterious mutations, without the washout process of natural selection being able to compensate because of the rapid rate of mutations. This causes harmful mutations to be fixed in the viral population, and this buildup could lead to a “mutational meltdown.”<<<

 

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