Coronavirus

[Swerd]

From what I've read and seen on the news, the current crop of vaccines in development have a pretty high rate of developing antibodies on the first dose. I think @TLS Guy may have already posted this, but at least the Oxford version has 100% antibody after the second dose. I'll let him or @Swerd correct me on that if I'm misremembering.

That trial of the Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine tested 1077 people. About half of the people (543) received the experimental corona virus vaccine and half (534) got the meningitis vaccine, as a control vaccination. This trial has not gone on long enough to test for how effective the vaccine is at preventing COVID-19 disease, and those numbers of people are too small to provide statistically significant values for effectiveness. Larger trials of that vaccine will be done, with about 30,000 people, to test efficacy.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31604-4/fulltext

Of the 543 corona virus vaccine recipients, 10 people also got a second dose of the vaccine. The data on their responses will be of interest, if neutralizing antibody responses are also shown to be protective in humans. This is not known at present.

Importantly, there are accumulating data that suggest T-cell responses play an important role in COVID-19 immune responses. Individuals who had been exposed to the virus, but never developed disease symptoms, did develop a robust memory T-cell response, in the absence of a measurable antibody response.

So, don't attach too much importance – yet – to that report of the 10 people who received two doses. It was done in only 10 people, and it showed greater antibody response. But the T-cell responses were already robust after a single dose. A second dose did not add to that.

 

[Swerd]

The question now is whether it is possible to do so while avoiding another full lockdown, and states like Arizona are offering a real-time experiment.

“In some ways, it is like a large-scale version of a clinical trial,” Dr. Inglesby said. “Arizona is one of the states involved and is going through crisis and now is taking a certain set of interventions, and we are seeing if those interventions work.”

Medical experiments, clinical trials, on humans are highly regulated by the FDA. Only people with specialized medical training are allowed to perform these experiments. Politicians who have zero medical knowledge or training cannot and must not be allowed to participate in or interfere with this. They violate the Federal Clean Food and Drug Act, a felony.

 

[highfigh]

I doubt if any vaccine is 100% effective, but few things in biology are ever 100%. The measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine is probably as good an example as there is. After two doses, 97% of people are protected against measles, 88% against mumps, and at least 97% against rubella.

MMR vaccine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Besides overall effectiveness, this graph from the Wikipedia article shows something else I want to point out. It took about 5 years for measles to drop below 100,000 cases per year in the USA. And that was with a highly effective vaccine. When we talk about a vaccine for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, no one talks about how long it will take before enough people are vaccinated to cause disease levels to really drop. We still don't know how effective any of the experimental SARS-CoV-2 vaccines will be.

One of the major problems we have that didn't exist during the Spanish Flu is the much higher population and the number of self-appointed 'experts' on the internet who have gained so much attention, compared to a time when people would actually listen to their doctors. The fact that medical information was often wrong aside, the researchers were at the forefront of gaining ground on illnesses and that's one area that will, once again, take us to some kind of vaccine.

Thank you to the people on AH who work in medicine, labs and other fields for the info you have given in the face of the vast wasteland of the internet.

 

[Hobbit]

Curious, where you at?

TX is doing horribly simply because too many idiots won't follow protocol. That and the gov decided to relax things too damn early because we were doing really well. God forbid we continue to do well.

NM. Thought it said under my name.

 

[TLS Guy]

From what I've read and seen on the news, the current crop of vaccines in development have a pretty high rate of developing antibodies on the first dose. I think @TLS Guy may have already posted this, but at least the Oxford version has 100% antibody after the second dose. I'll let him or @Swerd correct me on that if I'm misremembering.

No you are correct. The Oxford vaccine after two doses produced a robust antibody response and T-Cell response in 100% of cases. Now it remains to be seen if it as safe as it seems to be and really does prevent cases and viral transmission. The only question is whether it will produce longer immunity than natural infection. I know Sarah Gilbert is pretty confident it will. This is important as a paper came out last week showing that antibody levels fall by half in 36 days after natural infection. So T-1/2 is 36 days. so the time to the antibodies disappearing is 5.5 times that number, which gives you 7 months, at best immunity from natural infection. Of course it could well be that antibody production and rise would be quicker with a subsequent infection.

I think the Oxford vaccine's mechanism of action is likely to keep it at the top of the pack in terms of not only being ready, but in long term effectiveness. I'm not the only one who thinks that. The Oxford group are now very well funded from sources around the world, and I'm glad to say the US. Hopefully Astra Zeneka are moving ahead at full speed with production.

I think the UK government will likely cut the red tape and start rolling this out early fall. This virus just causes far too much disruption if you lock down or let it rip. In fact there is data that letting it rip is far worse than restrictions, and comes at an enormous loss of life.

So there is NO logical argument not impose every possible mechanism to stop the spread of this really horrible virus, whose long term impact is as yet unknown. However like everything else about this virus, it will probably be worse than thought.

I think the UK government who some years ago charged Porton Down and the Jenner institute, with developing vaccines quickly in the event of a new deadly infectious disease showed a lot of foresight. I think that this work has not only paid off for Oxford, but there papers over several years have introduced he idea of exploring methods other than killed and live attenuated vaccine technology. So not only has this put Oxford in pole position so to speak, but given encouragement and impetus to others.

The US on the other hand has been trying to emasculate the CDC and reduce pandemic preparedness. The whole world can see how that looks, and it will long be to our national shame.

 

[Kvn_Walker]

Medical experiments, clinical trials, on humans are highly regulated by the FDA. Only people with specialized medical training are allowed to perform these experiments. Politicians who have zero medical knowledge or training cannot and must not be allowed to participate in or interfere with this. They violate the Federal Clean Food and Drug Act, a felony.

This year has proven in many ways just how unaccountable our leaders are.

 

[KEW]

So, you hope people die because they like a President who's not your guy?

Whoa! That definitely was not my message!
I wrote:

I'm hoping the people that refuse to wear mask are from Trump's base -The people who will follow him no matter what. Hopefully now that he's changed his message and saying it's a patriotic thing to wear mask they will follow him that way too. But who knows what percentage that really is?

What I intended to communicate is:
1) There is a substantial percentage of the population that did not wear masks.
2) If these people are from Trump's base, they are more likely to start wearing masks (now that Trump is encouraging it as the patriotic thing to do)!
3) If these people are not aligned with Trump, then, I believe, they are less likely to start wearing masks.
4) Consequently, "I'm hoping the people that refuse to wear mask are from Trump's base" ... because that would result in more people wearing masks (which will help save lives of everyone, no matter political party).
5) Not part of my post, but ultimately, I am hopeful that Trumps "better late than never" decisive support of masks will help control the virus!

Make sense?

BTW, There is good reason to believe many of them are from Trump's base!
I have a hard time imagining another demographic that would result in this many people gathered together, shouting, and not wearing masks indoors during the epidemic (Tulsa rally, 6/20/2020). I did the Where's Waldo thing and counted 6 masks - all I can do is shake my head in sadness (and a little disbelief):

I would never want people to die because of their political beliefs (at least in the context of today's USA).
However, in the case of an "epidemic", where outcomes are based on the density of infected people coupled with exponential growth, wishing the virus on others is effectively wishing it on myself! I'm no fan of Russian Roulette!

 

[Mikado463]

CDC changing some quarantine guidelines ............

The CDC Just Changed How Long You Have to Quarantine After COVID-19

 

[Out-Of-Phase]

Does anyone know which KN95 (China) masks are okay?

I purchased these from:

SupplyAID KN95 Protective Face Mask | 5-Pack

SupplyAID® KN95 5-ply foldable mask is suitable for adults’ daily travel protection. The KN95 mask is not to be used as a replacement for gas masks or as a

www.snowjoe.com

I can't verify if they are certified from the CDC.

International Assessment Results | NPPTL | NIOSH | CDC

NPPTL makes no representation as to the authenticity of the samples received and assessed. As part of its standard respirator approval process for NIOSH-approved respirators, NPPTL conducts a comprehensive quality assurance review of the quality process and manufacturing site.

www.cdc.gov

Personal Protective Equipment EUAs

Personal Protective Equipment EUAs

www.fda.gov

 

[killdozzer]

And then some deluge for a good mesure:

Yes, that is a car in the back. This young lady angel dove after a legless man into the water to save him.

 

[killdozzer]

We lost a fireman who was saving people from the flood. 2020, eh?

 

[Mr._Clark]

I doubt if any vaccine is 100% effective, but few things in biology are ever 100%. The measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine is probably as good an example as there is. After two doses, 97% of people are protected against measles, 88% against mumps, and at least 97% against rubella.

MMR vaccine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Besides overall effectiveness, this graph from the Wikipedia article shows something else I want to point out. Once the vaccine became available in 1963, it took about 5 years for measles to drop below 100,000 cases per year in the USA. And that was with a highly effective vaccine. When we talk about a vaccine for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, no one talks about how long it will take before enough people are vaccinated to cause disease levels to really drop. We still don't know how effective any of the experimental SARS-CoV-2 vaccines will be.

This article at the Atlantic basically says an effective vaccine probably will be developed, but widespread immunity will take time.

A Vaccine Reality Check

So much hope is riding on a breakthrough, but a vaccine is only the beginning of the end.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[highfigh]

Whoa! That definitely was not my message!
I wrote:

What I intended to communicate is:
1) There is a substantial percentage of the population that did not wear masks.
2) If these people are from Trump's base, they are more likely to start wearing masks (now that Trump is encouraging it as the patriotic thing to do)!
3) If these people are not aligned with Trump, then, I believe, they are less likely to start wearing masks.
4) Consequently, "I'm hoping the people that refuse to wear mask are from Trump's base" ... because that would result in more people wearing masks (which will help save lives of everyone, no matter political party).
5) Not part of my post, but ultimately, I am hopeful that Trumps "better late than never" decisive support of masks will help control the virus!

Make sense?

BTW, There is good reason to believe many of them are from Trump's base!
I have a hard time imagining another demographic that would result in this many people gathered together, shouting, and not wearing masks indoors during the epidemic (Tulsa rally, 6/20/2020). I did the Where's Waldo thing and counted 6 masks - all I can do is shake my head in sadness (and a little disbelief):


I would never want people to die because of their political beliefs (at least in the context of today's USA).
However, in the case of an "epidemic", where outcomes are based on the density of infected people coupled with exponential growth, wishing the virus on others is effectively wishing it on myself! I'm no fan of Russian Roulette!

What other reason would you have for hoping his base wouldn't wear masks, if not that something bad should happen to them because of it?

It's not only Trump supporters who don't want to wear masks-I know quite a few Democrats who don't like wearing masks and think this is less serious than it is, including one who had it and said he doesn't want to be tested again unless he's on a ventilator because he said the medical staff didn't seem to know what they were doing. Another doesn't think it's as much of a risk to people with Asthma since she hasn't had symptoms, even though she's an Asthma sufferer. Many of the protesters in MKE didn't wear masks, either. Hard to believe many Conservatives were in those crowds.



I don't think #4 makes sense- care to elaborate?

 

[highfigh]

Does anyone know which KN95 (China) masks are okay?

I purchased these from:

SupplyAID KN95 Protective Face Mask | 5-Pack

SupplyAID® KN95 5-ply foldable mask is suitable for adults’ daily travel protection. The KN95 mask is not to be used as a replacement for gas masks or as a

www.snowjoe.com

I can't verify if they are certified from the CDC.

International Assessment Results | NPPTL | NIOSH | CDC

NPPTL makes no representation as to the authenticity of the samples received and assessed. As part of its standard respirator approval process for NIOSH-approved respirators, NPPTL conducts a comprehensive quality assurance review of the quality process and manufacturing site.

www.cdc.gov

Personal Protective Equipment EUAs

Personal Protective Equipment EUAs

www.fda.gov

They have to be better than a simple cloth mask made by people who worked at home.

 

[TLS Guy]

This article at the Atlantic basically says an effective vaccine probably will be developed, but widespread immunity will take time.

A Vaccine Reality Check

So much hope is riding on a breakthrough, but a vaccine is only the beginning of the end.

www.theatlantic.com

That article is a basic misunderstanding of vaccine technology, especially the Oxford vaccine. The Oxford vaccine has carefully chosen a viral vector, that is NOT a Coronavirus, but a virus that can infect humans , but causes only very mild flu like system. Once injected it DOES replicate in the body. It is a modified virus though that contains a plasmid of DNA to instruct your body to produce the corona virus S-spike protein, and then your immune system makes antibody to the S-Spike protein and your T-cells remember how to do it. This much is known, and after two injections, ALL subjects' immune system have done exactly what I have described. How long this immunity will last is not known, but there are good reasons to suspect it will be a significant length of time.

The Moderna Vaccine is just injecting mRNA. If that produces a significant immune response for a significant length of time I will be surprised. Prof. Sarah Gilbert is on record as to being skeptical that approach will produce useful long lasting immunity. We now know that the Chinese who are giving a vaccine to their military modeled (actually stolen) from Oxford have picked the wrong viral vector and their vaccine is not very effective.

I think the biggest challenge will be manufacture and distribution of the vaccine in required quantities to stop this ghastly pandemic. Distribution will be an issue. The Oxford vaccine will require two doses.

So we need to think now about essential supplies, the most basic of which are the glass vials, syringes an needles to inject it. We should be working out a distribution system now. The Feds should be taking charge of this now, but of course they are not.

So I agree this will all take time. But I think we can shut this down by some time summer next year if we can roll this out around year's end. The UK is already in the distribution planning phase.

Lastly the issue if public acceptance, needs to be somewhat forced. The immune response to a vaccine can be measured. Countries should not accept entry of people who do not have immunity. Employers should be able to demand proof of immunity or no job for you. SS could be made dependent on proof of immunity also. I think we could be, and should be pretty draconian about this.

 

[Trell]

What other reason would you have for hoping his base wouldn't wear masks, if not that something bad should happen to them because of it?
...

Why are you still hacking your straw man when @KEW has already replied that you misunderstood him? For me it was pretty clear that he did not mean what you accused him of, and English is not even my mother tongue.

 

[Danzilla31]

That article is a basic misunderstanding of vaccine technology, especially the Oxford vaccine. The Oxford vaccine has carefully chosen a viral vector, that is NOT a Coronavirus, but a virus that can infect humans , but causes only very mild flu like system. Once injected it DOES replicate in the body. It is a modified virus though that contains a plasmid of DNA to instruct your body to produce the corona virus S-spike protein, and then your immune system makes antibody to the S-Spike protein and your T-cells remember how to do it. This much is known, and after two injections, ALL subjects' immune system have done exactly what I have described. How long this immunity will last is not known, but there are good reasons to suspect it will be a significant length of time.

The Moderna Vaccine is just injecting mRNA. If that produces a significant immune response for a significant length of time I will be surprised. Prof. Sarah Gilbert is on record as to being skeptical that approach will produce useful long lasting immunity. We now know that the Chinese who are giving a vaccine to their military modeled (actually stolen) from Oxford have picked the wrong viral vector and their vaccine is not very effective.

I think the biggest challenge will be manufacture and distribution of the vaccine in required quantities to stop this ghastly pandemic. Distribution will be an issue. The Oxford vaccine will require two doses.

So we need to think now about essential supplies, the most basic of which are the glass vials, syringes an needles to inject it. We should be working out a distribution system now. The Feds should be taking charge of this now, but of course they are not.

So I agree this will all take time. But I think we can shut this down by some time summer next year if we can roll this out around year's end. The UK is already in the distribution planning phase.

Lastly the issue if public acceptance, needs to be somewhat forced. The immune response to a vaccine can be measured. Countries should not accept entry of people who do not have immunity. Employers should be able to demand proof of immunity or no job for you. SS could be made dependent on proof of immunity also. I think we could be, and should be pretty draconian about this.

This will be tough to implement in the US. But I agree it would be nice. I'll definetly be taking it I have always supported vaccines.

I'm hoping enough people will take it that any segment of the population that is opposed to vaccination won't make that much of an impact on the outcome

 

[TLS Guy]

I am afraid to say that I think we are headed for a major catastrophe in the US right now. If we do not lock the country down hard now, I hate to think of the millions of citizens we stand to loose in the next few months.

We have done well in Minnesota, but now cases that we know about are on the rise.

This is an incident involving my granddaughter today.

Yesterday, my 17 year old granddaughter came down with symptoms highly suggestive of Covid 19, she is worse today with fever. We could not get her tested yesterday. Today CVS could not test her. He physician at Allina could not get her tested. Her father who is in charge of all Target buildings nation wide, was told that Target employee testing had no tests. I am a retired ICU physician and my wife is a retired cardiology/transplantation NP from Allina. Due to connections we were able to pull strings and get her tested. Allina initially told her to go to Wisconsin to get tested!
The delay for results is now 3 to 5 days were are told this could be longer.
A close contact in her apartment building recently flew to Philadelphia, and is due to fly back shortly.
I have told my daughter to tell all contacts to quarantine for 14 days. I have told the contact due to fly back shortly to on no account go to an airport and get on a plane.
If this situation can not be corrected promptly, then this state needs to lock down again hard now, or we will have a major disaster. We can NOT fly blind with cases on the rise.
I have notified the Minnesota State Health department and was appalled to find out they they did not know the situation on the ground.

Obviously the country is being lied to and we are all lambs to the slaughter now.

This country needs to lock down hard now, in all states. Planes need to be grounded ASAP.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Whoa! That definitely was not my message!
I wrote:

What I intended to communicate is:
1) There is a substantial percentage of the population that did not wear masks.
2) If these people are from Trump's base, they are more likely to start wearing masks (now that Trump is encouraging it as the patriotic thing to do)!
3) If these people are not aligned with Trump, then, I believe, they are less likely to start wearing masks.
4) Consequently, "I'm hoping the people that refuse to wear mask are from Trump's base" ... because that would result in more people wearing masks (which will help save lives of everyone, no matter political party).
5) Not part of my post, but ultimately, I am hopeful that Trumps "better late than never" decisive support of masks will help control the virus!

Make sense?

BTW, There is good reason to believe many of them are from Trump's base!
I have a hard time imagining another demographic that would result in this many people gathered together, shouting, and not wearing masks indoors during the epidemic (Tulsa rally, 6/20/2020). I did the Where's Waldo thing and counted 6 masks - all I can do is shake my head in sadness (and a little disbelief):

I would never want people to die because of their political beliefs (at least in the context of today's USA).
However, in the case of an "epidemic", where outcomes are based on the density of infected people coupled with exponential growth, wishing the virus on others is effectively wishing it on myself! I'm no fan of Russian Roulette!

Whoa! That definitely was not my message!
I wrote:

What I intended to communicate is:
1) There is a substantial percentage of the population that did not wear masks.
2) If these people are from Trump's base, they are more likely to start wearing masks (now that Trump is encouraging it as the patriotic thing to do)!
3) If these people are not aligned with Trump, then, I believe, they are less likely to start wearing masks.
4) Consequently, "I'm hoping the people that refuse to wear mask are from Trump's base" ... because that would result in more people wearing masks (which will help save lives of everyone, no matter political party).
5) Not part of my post, but ultimately, I am hopeful that Trumps "better late than never" decisive support of masks will help control the virus!

Make sense?

BTW, There is good reason to believe many of them are from Trump's base!
I have a hard time imagining another demographic that would result in this many people gathered together, shouting, and not wearing masks indoors during the epidemic (Tulsa rally, 6/20/2020). I did the Where's Waldo thing and counted 6 masks - all I can do is shake my head in sadness (and a little disbelief):

I would never want people to die because of their political beliefs (at least in the context of today's USA).
However, in the case of an "epidemic", where outcomes are based on the density of infected people coupled with exponential growth, wishing the virus on others is effectively wishing it on myself! I'm no fan of Russian Roulette!

I agree with you. I hope more people of all political stripes wear masks and I also hope fewer people of all political stripes die as a result.

Axios ran an article showing differences in Ds and Rs on various issues, and how the views of Rs seem to track Trump's cues.

The cues Trump sends with his coronavirus comments

Republicans' shifts in thinking and behavior weren't immediate, often manifesting in a week or so.

www.axios.com

 

[Danzilla31]

I am afraid to say that I think we are headed for a major catastrophe in the US right now. If we do not lock the country down hard now, I hate to think of the millions of citizens we stand to loose in the next few months.

We have done well in Minnesota, but now cases that we know about are on the rise.

This is an incident involving my granddaughter today.

Yesterday, my 17 year old granddaughter came down with symptoms highly suggestive of Covid 19, she is worse today with fever. We could not get her tested yesterday. Today CVS could not test her. He physician at Allina could not get her tested. Her father who is in charge of all Target buildings nation wide, was told that Target employee testing had no tests. I am a retired ICU physician and my wife is a retired cardiology/transplantation NP from Allina. Due to connections we were able to pull strings and get her tested. Allina initially told her to go to Wisconsin to get tested!
The delay for results is now 3 to 5 days were are told this could be longer.
A close contact in her apartment building recently flew to Philadelphia, and is due to fly back shortly.
I have told my daughter to tell all contacts to quarantine for 14 days. I have told the contact due to fly back shortly to on no account go to an airport and get on a plane.
If this situation can not be corrected promptly, then this state needs to lock down again hard now, or we will have a major disaster. We can NOT fly blind with cases on the rise.
I have notified the Minnesota State Health department and was appalled to find out they they did not know the situation on the ground.

Obviously the country is being lied to and we are all lambs to the slaughter now.

This country needs to lock down hard now, in all states. Planes need to be grounded ASAP.

I'm so sorry to hear about your granddaughter my prayers and thoughts go out to her and your family right now