Blu-ray not delivering on their promises

[racquetman]

Looks like Microsoft has spilled the beans on Blu-ray's shortcomings.

http://www.tomshardware.com/hardnews/20050927_190208.html

Sony apparently is all talk at this point. They claim they have the storage advantage, but according to this article they can't get a working disc out of the lab to production. Right now, HD-DVD has the upperhand because they have shown they can mass produce a 30 gigabyte dual layer disc. Sony can't do the same, so their capacity is considered to be limited to the 25 gigabyte single layer disc.

Read the article to see why Microsoft and Intel think HD-DVD is the better format.

 

[Jedi2016]

Considering how Microsoft and Sony are currently at each other's throats, it's small wonder that MS would release a report like this. They were never going to use Blu-Ray, unless given no other alternative. This report is nothing but excuse-making as to why they made the decision to go HD-DVD.

The thing about production-ready isn't anything new. We've always known that HD-DVD would be in production first. The fact that 50GB BD discs exist at all is proof that it can be done. It's just a matter of time before it happens. And since the format won't officially launch for many months, they have that time to work out the kinks.

I'm not concerned. MS and Intel are not major producers of disc-based content (the movie studios hold that particular monopoly). As a result, they'll have very little impact on the format war.

 

[racquetman]

The fact that 50GB BD discs exist at all is proof that it can be done.

Uhhhhh, no, just because something can be done one time in a lab certainly doesn't mean that it can be mass produced in a cost effective manner.

I'm not concerned. MS and Intel are not major producers of disc-based content (the movie studios hold that particular monopoly). As a result, they'll have very little impact on the format war.

By not concerned I guess you mean that you are convinced Blu-ray is better and that you want to buy their product. You're dismissing this announcement as a Microsoft ploy, but apparently you choose to believe all the Blu-ray propaganda being spewed by Sony.

All we have going right now is a war of words. Each format is trying to get the other to back down. I wouldn't put much stock in anything either side says at this point. However, if there is any truth to the statements in that article, you better believe Sony should be a bit concerned. They don't have the best track record in the world!!

 

[HookedOnSound]

I thought for a long time that Blu-Ray would win solely on its upper hand in regards to storage space capability.

But the points listed in the article in reference have more to with adoptability than anything else and they're right on the money IMO.

Production timing are not as critical some might think, what is 4-8 months diff. between the formats on a technology that will be around for the next 20 years? not much in my mind.

What is important is that they get it right the first time around, I'm not sure who that will be but even Microsoft's statement is half true my vote goes to HD-DVD.

I will be interesting to see how things turn out in 2yrs.

 

[krzywica]

You also have to factor in the ps3 and the media sales that it will generate. The video game market has exploded in the last 10 years and it is only becoming more popular.

 

[Rob Babcock]

Another fluff piece- pure MS propoganda. I'm shocked that anyone would take their ravings seriously.

 

[racquetman]

Another fluff piece- pure MS propoganda. I'm shocked that anyone would take their ravings seriously.

Maybe so, but it should be easy for Sony to fire back if some of that stuff isn't true.

 

[Jedi2016]

Sony doesn't have to. Remember that the BDA is more than just Sony. And Dell and HP just today called bulls**t on that article, pointing out that nearly everything MS and Intel said was either twisted or flat-out lies. They confirmed that 50GB dual-layer BD discs will be available at launch. Who gives a rat's *** if they're not producing them right now? So long as they have them at launch, nothing else matters.

And, as mentioned above, don't count out the PS3. Millions of Blu-Ray players in homes worldwide with no effort whatsoever in terms of marketing the disc format.

I don't necessarily "believe" what one company says over another. But I recognize mud-slinging when I see it. My "loyalty" to Blu-Ray is simply that it's the superior format in every single category that matters. More storage = less compression = better quality. No self-respecting home theater buff could possibly want the lesser format. You'd be advocating lower quality for what purpose? The fact is that HD-DVD does not have a single advantage over Blu-Ray as far as the consumer is concerned. And before you bring up the cost argument, remember that consumers couldn't care less about manufacturing infrastructure costs. All they care about is how much the discs and players cost. And on the shelf, there will be no difference. Players will be comparably priced, and the discs themselves will most likely cost exactly the same.

 

[racquetman]

Sony doesn't have to. Remember that the BDA is more than just Sony. And Dell and HP just today called bulls**t on that article, pointing out that nearly everything MS and Intel said was either twisted or flat-out lies. They confirmed that 50GB dual-layer BD discs will be available at launch. Who gives a rat's *** if they're not producing them right now? So long as they have them at launch, nothing else matters.

And, as mentioned above, don't count out the PS3. Millions of Blu-Ray players in homes worldwide with no effort whatsoever in terms of marketing the disc format.

I don't necessarily "believe" what one company says over another. But I recognize mud-slinging when I see it. My "loyalty" to Blu-Ray is simply that it's the superior format in every single category that matters. More storage = less compression = better quality. No self-respecting home theater buff could possibly want the lesser format. You'd be advocating lower quality for what purpose? The fact is that HD-DVD does not have a single advantage over Blu-Ray as far as the consumer is concerned. And before you bring up the cost argument, remember that consumers couldn't care less about manufacturing infrastructure costs. All they care about is how much the discs and players cost. And on the shelf, there will be no difference. Players will be comparably priced, and the discs themselves will most likely cost exactly the same.

Uhhhh, they're both likely to use the same video codecs = same compression. Storage isn't going to be an issue. Are you under the impression that 30 gigabytes isn't enough to hold a high def movie?

You haven't seen any hardware, final specs for either formats, nor any software and you are making all these conclusions. What are you, a fortune teller? Sounds like you are passionate about what you are trying to say, but you have no facts to back it up. I'm not sure how you can declare Blu-ray the better format when they haven't even finished their specification yet.

I'm sick of the PS3 argument. The president of Sony himself warned of its huge expense. You will have to have the right equipment to be able to see any high def movies through the thing. To date, few use their gaming system to watch movies. People are creatures of habit. I'm not convinced anything will change immediately when the PS3 rolls out.

 

[abarry126]

"To date, few use their gaming system to watch movies."


Just to refute this statement, I may not watch movies on my PS2 much anymore, but in the first couple of years after it's initial release I watched movies on it quite often, I would even use it as travel player. I know a number of people that watched movies on it quite often in the 2000-2002 period. I beleive the same will be true of the PS3 in the first year or two, mainly due to the cost of the PS3 compared to the standalone Blu-Ray players that will be avialiable. After their price comes down, then most people will probably use standalone players. I think another example to look at is Sony's relative success with the PSP specially in reference to the UMD format. I'm surprised at the number of studios currently supporting this proprietary format, and those UMDs sell pretty well. I think this bodes well for Blu-ray because people will of course use the PS3 primarily for gaming, but will want to try out the extra capability of the Blu Ray player and watch movies.

 

[racquetman]

"To date, few use their gaming system to watch movies."


Just to refute this statement, I may not watch movies on my PS2 much anymore, but in the first couple of years after it's initial release I watched movies on it quite often, I would even use it as travel player. I know a number of people that watched movies on it quite often in the 2000-2002 period. I beleive the same will be true of the PS3 in the first year or two, mainly due to the cost of the PS3 compared to the standalone Blu-Ray players that will be avialiable. After their price comes down, then most people will probably use standalone players. I think another example to look at is Sony's relative success with the PSP specially in reference to the UMD format. I'm surprised at the number of studios currently supporting this proprietary format, and those UMDs sell pretty well. I think this bodes well for Blu-ray because people will of course use the PS3 primarily for gaming, but will want to try out the extra capability of the Blu Ray player and watch movies.

OK, so you are one of the few that watch(ed) movies on your PS2. The point is, most do not. Just because you know a few, doesn't constitute most. There are probably a lot of people that don't even know a PS2 can play DVDs, sad as that may be. There is a huge gap in consumer knowledge between people that post here and the 'average joe'. That gap will continue to widen with the introduction of the blue laser formats. Not only will few know how to use them, few will have the equipment to do so.

The PSP is successful because of its portability factor. People also found it was useful to watch movies while traveling. No surprise there. Heck, I know people that are loading movies on their phones now (using 1 gig SD cards for storage). PSP success has nothing to do with whether or not Blu-ray will succeed. It's a totally different market.

 

[Audioholics]

I saw an ad on a major network station the other day that showed a movie was available on DVD and the PSP system... so they seem to be getting some airtime on the UMD format.

 

[BMXTRIX]

Right, they will use the same compression. So, a 320kbs mp3 is identical to a 128kbs mp3 because they are both mp3 format?

And they are both the same as wav files right?

With more disc capacity you have the ability for movies to use less encoding. Not a different codec, but less encoding.

Secondly - Alandamp - every person I know who got a PS2 and didn't own a DVD player already, used it to play DVD movies. EVERY ONE! It is unrealistic to believe that people who own a PS3 and do not own any HD player will not be using the PS3 as their HD disc player. If YOU own a PS3 would you not rent Blu-Ray discs to watch in HDTV if you didn't own any other player? Even if you didn't buy them?

There is a lot of mudslinging for sure, but HD-DVD is simply rehashing the DVD technology and trying to give it more ooomph. It may or may not win the battle, and HVD or some other format may come along and steal it all away, but for now, BD is claiming a good bit more than HD-DVD and HD-DVD seems to be clawing at ways to knock BD any way they can.

The idea that the makers of the X-Box would try to shoot down a format that will exist from day one in their game system is no suprise. How much is truth and how much is pure politics? God, I don't care. Show me your HD-DVD player and I'll show you my Blu-Ray Disc player. What? Neither of us have one???

Go figure.

Seems that HD-DVD made the promise to be in stores by Christmas this year with a long list of titles that were definitely going to be on store shelves.

So far, the only proven format to not meet expectations is HD-DVD.

 

[abarry126]

"The point is, most do not"

I guess the reason that is true Alandmap, is because you wrote it? I guess you could show me the stats you are quoting.

My point is that many gamers did watch movies on the PS2 at the beginning of its life cycle 2000-2001 - I'm talking those who were more into games with a secondary interest in the fairly new DVD technology. I'm drawing a parallel to what I think the situation will be like with BLU-RAY. Granted, there will be a smaller number who can really see what the Blu-Ray format really has to offer due to the high end/expensibe equipment needed to see it.

 

[racquetman]

Once again, who thinks 30 gigabytes isn't enough storage space to store a high def movie? Raise your hands. You don't need to use all this "extra" compression that you guys are talking about. Are you seriously under the impression that the HD-DVD group developed this new specification, but made it vastly inferior to the Blu-ray groups specs. Give me a break. Do you really think that both groups don't know exactly what the other guy is doing?!

Both groups know they need to put out a product that is many times better than DVD or no one is going to buy it. I won't pretend to know what is going on behind closed doors. Maybe HD-DVD delayed its launch so as not to steal any thunder from Microsoft's xbox 360 launch. Maybe in return Microsoft said they would sing the praises of HD-DVD. Who knows. HD-DVD doesn't need to come out this year. This battle isn't going to be won in 1 day. It certainly isn't going to be won because a bunch of people have PS3s. You still need the high def TV with HDMI or DVI to watch the movies. You still have to prove that anyone cares about high def movies. No one has done that yet. HDTV is one thing, but buying all the movies you own over again in a new format is another.

You guys need to get off your "everyone I know uses such and such" kick. People on this forum don't represent the majority. Not even close. No one I know uses a PS2 for movies, so I guess that evens that out anyway.

Lastly, if Blu-ray is the superior format, I hope they slaughter the hell out of HD-DVD. That would be great. 2 formats suck. But unfortunately I just don't see it going that way. Especially with Samsung, who's in the Blu-ray camp, already stating they will make a player that can handle both formats.

 

[racquetman]

"The point is, most do not"

I guess the reason that is true Alandmap, is because you wrote it? I guess you could show me the stats you are quoting.

Yes, everything that I say is true and completely factual

Actually, I think it's funny that you guys are doing the exact opposite of me, and yet trying to tell me I'm wrong. Where are your stats backing up your claims?

I'm not sure what this PS2 argument has to do with anything anyway.

 

[BMXTRIX]

Alan - Please don't get defensive to me. All I was saying was that everyone I know, who owned a PS2 before a dedicated DVD player, used their PS2 to watch DVDs.

Not one of these people I know currently has a PS2 but no DVD player.

So, I could say that none of my friends use their PS2 for DVDs. What did your friends do? Not watch DVDs until they owned a dedicated player and they just used their PS2 for games?

If they owned a DVD player already, then it doesn't apply to this discussion. Really, I know you mean well, but you gotta see that if someone owns a DVD player, they are much less likely to use and abuse their game system by playing movies on it when they don't have to.

I think it is fair to rationalize that if someone owns a PS3 and can watch HD movies on it, they will if they can. I know that I won't buy any HD player for a while - but I most definitely will be getting a PS3 - and I'm NOT in the minority on that. If BD delivers (not saying they will) then all the hype that Microsoft may try to generate won't help HD-DVD succeed against a million BD players sold overnight.

 

[abarry126]

You're just not getting the point I was trying to make, just trying to use the past to point to the future. It's like if you bought a very nice Sony CD player a couple of years ago, audiophile grade, but it also happened to play a new format called SACD. The reason for the purchase was primarily for it's cd playback capabilities, but one could reasonably expect most to try out the SACD playback. Now before you go saying you don't know what SACD has to do with next-gen DVD, or that the SACD and DVD-AUDIO formats are dead, may I remind you, it's an EXAMPLE to illustrate a point. That's why we were describing the PS2 owners experience during the beginning of its life cycle.

PS2 INSTALLED BASE - 90 million since Oct 2000 launch.

Here's another bit of info for ya: DVD sales figures by month including PS2: http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html#currentmonth (note PS2 was released OCT 2000) The sales fugures prior to that point never exceeded 600,000 players per month.The first month the PS2 had an impact (Sept due to pre-orders) the sales figures doubled. DVD sales figures jumped up about 105% that year, much of that due to the PS2. And yes the vast majority of those people were watching movies on the system, as evidenced by the many news articles that accompanied the release of the system, Here's one: http://archives.cnn.com/2000/TECH/computing/10/26/ps2.main.story/index.html

 

[abarry126]

Also to make another point and to agree with BMX, I wasn't planning on being a next-gen DVD early adopter but I will be getting a PS3 at launch, so I guess I will be default Blu-Ray early adopter.

 

[racquetman]

Alan - Please don't get defensive to me. All I was saying was that everyone I know, who owned a PS2 before a dedicated DVD player, used their PS2 to watch DVDs.

Not one of these people I know currently has a PS2 but no DVD player.

So, I could say that none of my friends use their PS2 for DVDs. What did your friends do? Not watch DVDs until they owned a dedicated player and they just used their PS2 for games?

If they owned a DVD player already, then it doesn't apply to this discussion. Really, I know you mean well, but you gotta see that if someone owns a DVD player, they are much less likely to use and abuse their game system by playing movies on it when they don't have to.

I think it is fair to rationalize that if someone owns a PS3 and can watch HD movies on it, they will if they can. I know that I won't buy any HD player for a while - but I most definitely will be getting a PS3 - and I'm NOT in the minority on that. If BD delivers (not saying they will) then all the hype that Microsoft may try to generate won't help HD-DVD succeed against a million BD players sold overnight.

Believe me, I'm not getting defensive. This talk is all speculation, and if we are going to speculate, we may as well have some fun doing it (fun to me by the way is using sarcasm and playing devil's advocate).

No one I know bought a PS2 when it came out. They waited until the price of the system and the software became more reasonable. Actually, most I know jumped ship and went to the xbox because of the xbox live playability. Sony lost a lot of people to the xbox, and I suspect they will lose a lot more when the xbox 360 comes out. This is based on people I know who have switched and people they talk to on xbox live. That feature has won over a lot of gamers in my area. I think a lot of these guys have both systems though.

What percentage of PS3 buyers do you think will actually have the display inputs to handle blu-ray movies? Do you think they'll have enough software out at launch to satisfy people? Just curious what you think about this.