I simply believe that far to many items are overlooked in almost every review or statement that is made.
1. Were both formats released to early?
Well, if you care about audio, then definitely yes, but both players appear to have a few bugs that could have been worked out.
2. Is the Samsung a POS and the Toshiba far better?
I would say that the Samsung isn't as good as the Toshiba, but the Toshiba is being sold for a straight out loss. Not $200 - but far more than that as it appears parts may run nearly $700 alone, then they are sold to stores closer to $350 or so! That doesn't include build labor, or shipping, etc. Toshiba is taking a huge hit on their player to get them out to as many people as possible. The Samsung is more likley $500 in HW sold at a profit - which most companies would consider the 'proper' way to sell product. Yes, the Toshiba is a deal.
3. Is MPEG2 lousy?
No! Geez, how is it even possible to link to people who would ever make such a horrendous claim! Anyone making the statement that Blu-ray looks poor because of MPEG2 by itself, is mistaken, and poorly informed. MPEG2 is used for OTA HD and is used with DVD. The bottom line is that MPEG2, when used properly looks phenomenal. But, 1080p + 25GB + MPEG2 simply does not work on a two hour movie. 50GB is required if MPE2 is to be used. The Blu-ray Demo disc that includes AVC, VC-1, and MPEG2 show that MPEG2 can be every bit as phenomenal as long as the space is there to use it. Of course, proper encoding is required. I would be just as happy to see AVC or VC-1 in use - which, guess what!?! Blu-ray happily supports.
4. Did Blu-ray fall flat on it's face?
Geez, in some ways yes. On the other hand, I hear that the player works pretty well and the remote is decent and it doesn't lock up nearly as much as the Toshiba does. But, the titles look poor. In a year, when (if) new codecs/dual layer discs are used, the image will look every bit as good as HD-DVD, and the player still won't lock up and the remote will still work. It just is so early to be making 'final' judgements or statements it seems.
5. Is HD-DVD going to win the format war?
Come on, it's way to early to tell! Any statements made about anything related to the format war and winners or losers seems utterly ridiculous to me. HD video is NOT HD audio. People actually are buying HD displays and many know that HDMI is what they should be using. But, HD-DVD continues to only have one main hardware manufacturer at this time. They also don't have nearly the studio support that Blu-ray does. Blu-ray has a lot more going for it... but they clearly aren't ready for prime time yet. If it takes 3-4 months for Blu-ray to get a bit more up to speed and come out with dual layer discs or start using VC-1/AVC on their titles, then I will wonder what HD-DVD will have as an advantage - beyond price of the player. If Blu-ray continues to falter, without releasing more players from the major players (Panny, Sony, Pioneer, etc.) and can't get their CODECs/discs figured out, then the studios may start really looking towards releasing HD movies in the HD-DVD format.
But, with less than ONE month under their belt, it seems incredibly premature to judge Blu-ray. With just a few months, HD-DVD is no more simple to make a judgement on. I believe strongly that if HD-DVD had the industry and studio support that Blu-ray has, then this would be a slam dunk battle. But, without that, HD-DVD still has a LONG way to go and needs a lot more than a lousy CODEC to stand much of a chance. Lower pricing really only goes so far - especially if places like Best Buy, Circuit City, and other stores are specifically pushing Blu-ray over HD-DVD.
Does HD-DVD have the upper hand? When it has more studios, more manufacturer support, and really is delivering movies from all those backers - then yes. Until then, they just have a bit of an advantage right now.
I'm not about to touch the format war going on - except for PS3 which some people think won't matter at all... Well, that is yet to be known as it seems to be a pretty safe purchase for those interested who want some assurance.