Netflix and Apple TV
There is a reason why Apple has sold billions of compressed audio files through iTunes, the average consumer doesn't care about the difference between MP3, AAC, and lossless audio.
I suspect that Apple TV and/or netfix will bring HD video (in some form) to the masses and BluRay will remain a niche market. The convience factor is huge. You see posts on the forum like "My BluRay player wont play Live Free, Die Hard", etc. BluRay will need a fully implemented, non-changing standard and players in the $1-200 price range before is can reach critical mass.