Interesting thread. Some observations:
For someone supposedly as wealthy as the current POTUS, he sure seems to have a poor grasp of basic economics. His obsession with tariffs and the need to be seen as "winning" in international trade will just lead to pain for all. Tariffs and other trade barriers were enacted during the Great Depression in an effort to stimulate domestic production and exports. That ignored the fact that other countries could do the same thing, which only exacerbated the effects of the depression. Right now, there is no recession/depression, which means the US government is implementing solutions in search of a problem.
Trump has complained that "Canada is killing us on trade", ignoring the fact that Canada currently has a trade deficit with the USA. This situation varies from year to year, so trade is pretty much equal between the two countries. There was no justification for tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, so the "national security" excuse was trotted out. The Canadian government has since implemented retaliatory tariffs. So, who wins?
Bringing in tariffs on Canadian-built vehicles - again, unjustified - would throw the entire North American auto industry into chaos. Vehicle components and sub-assemblies cross the Canadian/US/Mexican borders multiple times before final assembly. Tariffs will make European/Japanese/Korean imports look a lot less expensive...
As for dairy, that industry makes up a tiny proportion of the Canadian and US economies, but has become an obsession for POTUS. Canada has a supply management system for its dairy industry, based on quotas assigned to each dairy. So, production is limited to what the market can bear. Allowing too much imported dairy product would throw that system out of balance. It means stable incomes for dairy farmers, but means Canadians pay higher sticker prices for dairy products than Americans. I say "sticker prices", because Canadian dairy farmers receive NO subsidies, while the US government subsidises its dairy industry. Americans pay higher dairy prices than they think - the extra cost is just buried in taxes. Contrary to popular belief, Canada currently imports more dairy product from the US, than the other way around. But, that isn't good enough for POTUS. OK, fine. If the Canadian government dismantled supply management, they would then be justified in bringing in tariffs on American dairy products because they are subsidised. Plus, a huge proportion of American dairy workers are underpaid, undocumented residents (look it up) - a hidden subsidy.
The American dairy industry is its own worst enemy. They are trying to compensate for low prices by producing more product, which only compounds their problems. Is the solution to excess production simply to dump it into the Canadian market?
It was mentioned that the Republican and Democratic parties seem to have reversed positions on trade. I don't believe that to be quite accurate. The White House has a problem with NAFTA, but as far as I can tell, the Republican side of Congress had far less concern.
NAFTA has caused pain to some sectors of the economies of all three countries, but overall, it's been a resounding success. The desire to renegotiate it is baffling.
