Is HD DVD Trying to Lose?

[loserwife]

Lets check back in another year I can promise the 360 will not be number one, not with sales the way they are. The Wii will take this year and possibly part of next and after that it will be the ps3. If sale trends continue as they did with the last gen the ps3 is on a great pace...beating out the ps2 sales for the first year. Ps2 had about 6.5 million sold after one year and I think the ps3 is already around 4.5-5 million...

I agree,the Wii will win hands down this year. Five of my friends just bought Wii's. Every Friday they have a Wii party.

 

[Tex-amp]

If sale trends continue as they did with the last gen the ps3 is on a great pace...beating out the ps2 sales for the first year. Ps2 had about 6.5 million sold after one year and I think the ps3 is already around 4.5-5 million...

But, many of those have been sold as Blu-ray movie players as it is the cheapest Blu-ray player. Now PS3 has poor attach rates as game machine from movie watchers buying it and poor movie attach rate from those buying it just for gaming.

 

[AcuDefTechGuy]

HDDVD is losing to Blu-ray.
For the first time, I think Sony actually has a winner.
HDDVD is so desperate, they might as well start selling their players for $99.
Blu-ray just has so much more software support, and software is the key.

 

[Tex-amp]

HDDVD is losing to Blu-ray.
For the first time, I think Sony actually has a winner.
HDDVD is so desperate, they might as well start selling their players for $99.
Blu-ray just has so much more software support, and software is the key.

I see it as HD DVD is killing Blu on stand alone hardware and attach rates. Blu is killing HD on PR. I don't see desperation on HD's part or they'd knock the player price down further. Blu needs the kill in the 4th quarter as they outsell, with PS3, 10 to 1 on total hardware but only outsell 2 to 1 on software and that is with only 1 exclusive studio for HD, Universal, whose theater releases and sales in standard DVDs have pretty much stunk this year.

I still think this is a years long format battle.

 

[AcuDefTechGuy]

Do you think Steven Spielberg is siding with Blu-ray and can he prevent all of his movies with Universal from being released on HD DVD?

 

[Tex-amp]

Do you think Steven Spielberg is siding with Blu-ray and can he prevent all of his movies with Universal from being released on HD DVD?

Does Spielberg own the rights or does the studio that acquired DreamWorks?

I inaccurately stated above that Blu to HD DVD is 10 to 1 when it should have been 5 to 1 for hardware.

 

[agabriel]

I think most are missing the big picture in the format war, and both will lose as a result. With the exception of most of the people on this forum I don't think people want a disc they have to get up and put in a player. I think the majority have spoken with the success of music downloads, I think movies need to move in a more digital read downloadable direction. I would rather spend a few hundred dollars on a box that can download my movies, I know I would be happier with that than netflix. This is an easy problem, the movie execs need to stop over thinking it...

Anthony

 

[AcuDefTechGuy]

I think most are missing the big picture in the format war, and both will lose as a result. With the exception of most of the people on this forum I don't think people want a disc they have to get up and put in a player. I think the majority have spoken with the success of music downloads, I think movies need to move in a more digital read downloadable direction. I would rather spend a few hundred dollars on a box that can download my movies, I know I would be happier with that than netflix. This is an easy problem, the movie execs need to stop over thinking it...

Anthony

Maybe in 20 years when you can download a HD movie in 15 minutes

But maybe you are right. Maybe most people don't even care about HD to begin with. Maybe most people just want 240i or 480i instead of 1080p.
A change this drastic will be A LOT of time. Do most people actually down load music and movies NOW? Do most people even know what broadband internet is?
I don't think so. Most people can't even program a VCR.
Most peole don't even have broadband internet.

 

[Ken]

Remember back

If you can recall back when DVDs first came out they were more expensive than VHS tapes. Consumers were slow to get a player and slow to buy the movies on DVD. At the same time Circuit City was trying to compete with the DVD format with their Divix (throw away movie) format. The outcome was realized through time and the same will happen with Hi-Def DVDs. One format will win, it will become the norm and the prices will drop. I personally hate the format war also but it would surprise me to see Blu-ray win. Has Sony ever won a format war?

 

[davo]

Maybe in 20 years when you can download a HD movie in 15 minutes

But maybe you are right. Maybe most people don't even care about HD to begin with. Maybe most people just want 240i or 480i instead of 1080p.
A change this drastic will be A LOT of time. Do most people actually down load music and movies NOW? Do most people even know what broadband internet is?
I don't think so. Most people can't even program a VCR.
Most peole don't even have broadband internet.

When you look at countries like Japan (well, only Japan and some hot spots in Europe) it makes you realise how far behind the rest of us are, and in so many ways. Just because they enjoy incredible broad band speeds doesn't mean the rest of the planet is magically going to have it the year or decade after.

It's going to take some ground breaking infrastructural capital investments to make 15min high def down loads a reality. And thats if it is done over a big enough population base to make it viable!!

 

[AcuDefTechGuy]

If you can recall back when DVDs first came out they were more expensive than VHS tapes. Consumers were slow to get a player and slow to buy the movies on DVD. At the same time Circuit City was trying to compete with the DVD format with their Divix (throw away movie) format. The outcome was realized through time and the same will happen with Hi-Def DVDs. One format will win, it will become the norm and the prices will drop. I personally hate the format war also but it would surprise me to see Blu-ray win. Has Sony ever won a format war?

It would be the first

 

[hemiram]

Sony finally did pick the right side for once, IMO. I don't see where HD-DVD ever had a real chance with all the companies going up against it. It's the same as Beta sold by Sony and Zenith (and wasn't there one more), with a better pic, lost to VHS, sold by everyone else, with a longer record time, and from what I saw, more reliable hardware. My friend, who worked in an appliance store, fixed an awful lot of Beta machines that ate tapes, versus a tiny few VHS machines that did. Most of the failures on the older Panasonic built machines (Most VHS at that time), consisted of the end of tape sensing light bulbs burning out, a 15 minute fix.

HD-DVD has no real advantage of any kind, except for a cheaper player price right now. BR has headroom, if needed, and a larger storage capacity is ALWAYS better in the long run. I was shocked that HD-DVD really ever made it to production in the first place.

When the price finally breaks on BR, I'll be buying, but until then, I can wait.

I will be shocked if HD-DVD player production lasts more than another year or so. Dual format players will keep it alive for a while after that, but IMO, it's
"Dead HD-DVD Walking".

 

[Seth=L]

I didn't feel like pacing through 10 pages to see if this was already posted, mostly due to the time, but Blockbuster is now renting out Blu-ray discs. At the same store I visited they had no HD DVDs and the employees seemed to think HD DVD was not going to be showing up there at all. They also said their rate of Blu-ray rentals was surprisingly high.

 

[AcuDefTechGuy]

I didn't feel like pacing through 10 pages to see if this was already posted, mostly due to the time, but Blockbuster is now renting out Blu-ray discs. At the same store I visited they had no HD DVDs and the employees seemed to think HD DVD was not going to be showing up there at all. They also said their rate of Blu-ray rentals was surprisingly high.

Yeah, Blockbuster is Blu-Ray EXCLUSIVE In-Store, but will rent out both formats On-Line.

I have both, but I think Blu-Ray will win.

 

[AcuDefTechGuy]

I can't believe Onkyo now goes with HDDVD. You have Denon with Blu-ray, and Onkyo with HDDVD. Looks like this war keeps on dragging.

 

[BMXTRIX]

Has Sony ever won a format war?

How many format wars have there really been? I mean, Sony has definitely been a part of some of the most used technologies in the world, and has some of their own formats that are earning them millions, if not billions of dollars a year. Some of these were never incredibly popular, but likely weren't complete 'failures' as some would like to believe...

1. Floppy Discs (Sony)
2. CD (Sony/Philips)
3. DVD (DVD Forum founding members - 1 of 10, Sony menu structure used, Toshiba disc structure used)
4. Mini-Disc (not really competing, but very popular in Europe and by musicians for years)
5. UMD (obviously not popular for movies, but very popular to put video games on, saying UMD failed overall is like saying Nintendo DS cartridges 'failed' - millions of UMDs are sold every year with games. Also, no other product I am aware of besides the PSP uses UMD)
6. Memory Stick (Sony sells millions of cameras and other A/V gear with Memory Stick slots - they likely earn millions on the sale of Memory Sticks themselves)

There are other technologies that they have had great success with as well, but for the most part the only serious format war that Sony truly 'lost' was VHS vs. Beta, and that was only on the consumer side. On the professional side, Beta was the standard for about 20 years until digital came in and took over.

 

[Tex-amp]

Yeah, Blockbuster is Blu-Ray EXCLUSIVE In-Store, but will rent out both formats On-Line.

I have both, but I think Blu-Ray will win.

Of the 5,000 Blockbusters in NA only the 1,400 corporate owned stores are Blu-ray exclusive. The franchisee owned stores can do whatever they choose.

 

[jliedeka]

another fence-sitter

I'm sitting on the fence until I see how things shake out. I have a fairly large (~300 titles) DVD collection. They look pretty good upscaled on my 40" LCD.

Although I own an Xbox 360, I don't regard it as anything but a game machine and have no plans to buy the HD DVD add-on even if I go HD DVD. I have an older model that has component outs, which is fine, but only analog audio. I wouldn't even watch SD DVD's if I could only get pro logic, much less HD DVDs.

My HT system mostly dates from the late 90s. I've been waiting to upgrade my receiver and speakers but only recently has anything been available that decodes all the new sound formats. I'll probably buy a reciver with an eye toward one of the new high def formats but I'm still not ready to commit to something that may be gone in a year.

Normally I'd be against Sony's proprietary formats but I'm really impressed with SACDS and Beta Ray seems to be designed to more content. I think the clincher for me would be whichever format gets adopted by Criterion. For now, they are only putting out DVDs.

Jim