Yikes. While sony hasn't exactly been good to you, if you think the 360 is going to be reliable, you're in for a disappointment. In fact it may be the least reliable console ever produced.
I wouldn't recommend a PS3 right now. People aren't buying them, and many dev houses are cancelling their projects for PS3 and redeploying those teams to work on Wii games (which is still selling ridiculously well). The ps3 has the best hardware no doubt, but IMO the best console is the one with the best games. And at least until the end of the year, that's not going to be ps3.
I know full well of what you speak, i'm a regular on the 360 forums and have read hundreds of 360 three-red-lights-of-death horror stories.
so far mine has been...above average. it still locks up from time to time (did again today) but that has become more infrequent since i got it in January.
I am particulary interested in Rockstar games coming out and stating they are running into issue with the 360's lack of a HDD in all systems.
This is a big warning light for all 360 owners, imo.
Not only do 360 games have to be put on a DVD compared to PS3's Blu-Ray discs, but the developers have to design a game on the 360 that can't require use of a HDD.
I foresee that fact being the Achille's heel of the 360.
Particulary "sandbox" style games. Those games need to run seemlessly and have minimal load times, which on the PS3 they will be able to, but the 360's lack of storage is going to be a serious roadblock for the GTA series, which is a ton of fun.
I was leaning towards getting a PS3 for blu-ray playing anyway, and I think if this issue continues to plague rockstar games and cause a GTA 4 "lite" for 360 compared to PS3's version, I will buy a PS3.
And I doubt I'll be the only one.