Russia - Ukraine

[SithZedi]

I'm still convinced that NATO will not directly intervene militarily. The risks of escalation are too high and the consequences of escalation are to horrific to contemplate.

Strong economic sanctions - including freezing assets - against key Russian leaders and oligarchs need to be enacted. Should Russia invade the rest of Ukraine - complete economic embargo. The only exports they have with significant value are oil/gas and weapons. Any countries who buy from Russia - embargo for them, as well. It has to be draconian and Putin needs to know it will happen.

I hope you are right. Sanctions only go so far. The South Africans in the 1980s managed them for years. The Russians have a higher tolerance for pain that do Europeans. It's forced on them and more in their character. Putin's certainly has done his math. He's sized up Biden, can hold out for longer under sanctions, and knows how much support Xi will give him on the other end.

 

[GO-NAD!]

I hope you are right. Sanctions only go so far. The South Africans in the 1980s managed them for years. The Russians have a higher tolerance for pain that do Europeans. It's forced on them and more in their character. Putin's certainly has done his math. He's sized up Biden, can hold out for longer under sanctions, and knows how much support Xi will give him on the other end.

You may be right about sanctions. Yes, Putin won't be particularly exercised over the pain inflicted on Josef Plummer-ski. But, I'm curious as to how much pain the oligarchs are willing to endure. Much of Putin's power hinges on the mutual support between these cleptocrats and the Kremlin. My understanding is that they keep a large (most?) proportion of their assets in other countries - partly because the Russian economy is a wreck, partly in case they fall out of favour. That makes them vulnerable.

 

[SithZedi]

You may be right about sanctions. Yes, Putin won't be particularly exercised over the pain inflicted on Josef Plummer-ski. But, I'm curious as to how much pain the oligarchs are willing to endure. Much of Putin's power hinges on the mutual support between these cleptocrats and the Kremlin. My understanding is that they keep a large (most?) proportion of their assets in other countries - partly because the Russian economy is a wreck, partly in case they fall out of favour. That makes them vulnerable.

Great point. Take a look at who's been the major driver of real estate prices in London. That's why what the UK does or chooses not to do will play a role in this......

 

[highfigh]

I'm still convinced that NATO will not directly intervene militarily. The risks of escalation are too high and the consequences of escalation are to horrific to contemplate.

Strong economic sanctions - including freezing assets - against key Russian leaders and oligarchs need to be enacted. Should Russia invade the rest of Ukraine - complete economic embargo. The only exports they have with significant value are oil/gas and weapons. Any countries who buy from Russia - embargo for them, as well. It has to be draconian and Putin needs to know it will happen.

Of course, it's not that simple. We've tied ourselves to trade with China and they aren't going to stop trading with Russia at our behest.

If there's a complete embargo, how long do you think Russia will wait before doing something that's irreversibly stupid?

 

[highfigh]

You may be right about sanctions. Yes, Putin won't be particularly exercised over the pain inflicted on Josef Plummer-ski. But, I'm curious as to how much pain the oligarchs are willing to endure. Much of Putin's power hinges on the mutual support between these cleptocrats and the Kremlin. My understanding is that they keep a large (most?) proportion of their assets in other countries - partly because the Russian economy is a wreck, partly in case they fall out of favour. That makes them vulnerable.

But, isn't Xi waiting to see the response from the rest of the World before backing Putin in any substantial way? I'm not naiive enough to think they haven't already worked out some kind of agreement, but this whole thing is what I was referring to when I started the thread about 'Who's more dangerous?".

Also, I think oligarc assets are being frozen, or will be soon.

IMO, the rest of the world needs to stop using China for their manufacturing base- that's the only way they'll understand that they need to change.

 

[SithZedi]

If there's a complete embargo, how long do you think Russia will wait before doing something that's irreversibly stupid?

That's a good question. I might ask an additional one. Who is more likely to do something that's irreversibly stupid? Before you answer that question, look at the prior histories going back to the 1980s and current mental condition of both names........Biden or Putin?

 

[GO-NAD!]

If there's a complete embargo, how long do you think Russia will wait before doing something that's irreversibly stupid?

Who knows?

 

[GO-NAD!]

That's a good question. I might ask an additional one. Who is more likely to do something that's irreversibly stupid? Before you answer that question, look at the prior histories going back to the 1980s and current mental condition of both names........Biden or Putin?

Well, unlike his predecessor, I think Biden will listen to advise.

 

[John Parks]

Video: Biden sits in silence after being asked if he underestimated Putin | Daily Mail Online

Biden sits in silence and picks his teeth after being asked if he underestimated Putin.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[SithZedi]

Well, unlike his predecessor, I think Biden will listen to advise.

I hope so. I also hope that whoever advised him on the decision and the execution of the withdrawal plan from Afghanistan are not in the same building. Amoung the human costs, we also managed to create one of the most modern armies in Central Asia by leaving behind all of our latest equipment. (which the Chinese and Russians are now reverse engineering).
Additional questions to ponder iro of Ukraine situation and his advisors:
Think that knowledge might not be used in a war against us now to counteract our latest weapons.?
What's our strategy for that?
Putin and Xi must have been watching that withdrawal with some interest. What were their conclusions?

 

[highfigh]

I hope so. I also hope that whoever advised him on the decision and the execution of the withdrawal plan from Afghanistan are not in the same building. Amoung the human costs, we also managed to create one of the most modern armies in Central Asia by leaving behind all of our latest equipment. (which the Chinese and Russians are now reverse engineering).
Additional questions to ponder iro of Ukraine situation and his advisors:
Think that knowledge might not be used in a war against us now to counteract our latest weapons.?
What's our strategy for that?
Putin and Xi must have been watching that withdrawal with some interest. What were their conclusions?

You know how much good hoping did before, right? Same team who was in there for Benghazi and the Afghanistan pullout. Nice to see the Taliban getting around in our vehicles, BTW.

USSR/Russia and China have been reverse-engineering our stuff for decades- between the spies and crashed aircraft/other materiel left behind, they probably have enough to make our military miserable for a while, but we still have things they (hopefully) won't expect.

Our strategy should be to stay at least one step ahead in tech, but who knows how much has been handed over?

 

[mtrycrafts]

The Nord Stream 2 subsea pipeline to German was completed last autumn but it has not yet been certified, and there might be other work needed to be done as well before use. The German government has to be careful how they legally extract themselves from the pipeline deal.

I am better informed now. This is a 2nd pipeline up there to increase gas supply to Germany. I just thought that it was just named two and being the only one there.
The 1st has been operational for some time and that is not turned off, yet.

 

[GO-NAD!]

I hope so. I also hope that whoever advised him on the decision and the execution of the withdrawal plan from Afghanistan are not in the same building. Amoung the human costs, we also managed to create one of the most modern armies in Central Asia by leaving behind all of our latest equipment. (which the Chinese and Russians are now reverse engineering).
Additional questions to ponder iro of Ukraine situation and his advisors:
Think that knowledge might not be used in a war against us now to counteract our latest weapons.?
What's our strategy for that?

His withdrawal was based on the deal Trump made with the Taliban. I'm not sure if it's fair to lay the chaos in Kabul at his feet.

What latest equipment are you referring to? If any sophisticated equipment of any value to the Russians and Chinese was left behind, I would be questioning the DoD as to why.

Did US Leave More Than $80B Worth of Equipment to the Taliban? | Snopes.com

Putin and Xi must have been watching that withdrawal with some interest. What were their conclusions?

What relevant conclusions might there be?

 

[Danzilla31]

His withdrawal was based on the deal Trump made with the Taliban. I'm not sure if it's fair to lay the chaos in Kabul at his feet.

What latest equipment are you referring to? If any sophisticated equipment of any value to the Russians and Chinese was left behind, I would be questioning the DoD as to why.

Did US Leave More Than $80B Worth of Equipment to the Taliban? | Snopes.com


What relevant conclusions might there be?

Although the deal was made by Trump the withdrawal was made by Biden. Who had plenty of advisors military Intel and info on the ground on how to get that withdrawal done. Everyone likes to scapegoat the ol Trumpster since he left office but that implementation of that withdrawal was on Biden

If Biden pulls it off he gets a huge amount of credit with voters back home for bringing our troops back and ending that never ending conflict. It could have boosted his ratings and started off his term with a huge boost don't think he wasn't aware of that.

Plus whoever signed the deal or not it was the right thing to do. What are we supposed to do occupy a foreign country with our military forever? The deal was a good idea just poorly executed on our part.

No Biden had one thing to do and for whatever reason poor Intel bad planning the ball got dropped

 

[SithZedi]

His withdrawal was based on the deal Trump made with the Taliban. I'm not sure if it's fair to lay the chaos in Kabul at his feet.

What latest equipment are you referring to? If any sophisticated equipment of any value to the Russians and Chinese was left behind, I would be questioning the DoD as to why.

Did US Leave More Than $80B Worth of Equipment to the Taliban? | Snopes.com


What relevant conclusions might there be?

You are right the previous administration made a deal with the Taliban. The Taliban deal was part of their strategy to lower the US footprint in the region as much as possible and as orderly as possible. It was done in multiple parts in coordination with the Abraham Accords to ratchet down tension in the region. Israel of course is arguably central to all the problems in the region.

The BA overturned many of Trumps policies or deals immediately after taking office, others later on. If they found the deal with the Taliban did not fit their strategy, they could have amended or cancelled it as Trump did with Obama's 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The BA did not do that. Why not? Another interesting question.

What is important to the situation now is what Putin thinks. He doesn't care about the Trump agreement. He would care about analyzing the performance of the US military under Biden's Pentagon and how the withdrawal was executed. That has nothing to do with Trump. Putin would have also sent under cover Spetsnaz to question former US trained Aftgan military staff on the latest US tactics and instructional manuals.

As for what equipment we left behind, all it takes is only one Blackhawk or A29 to get the information they need.
I would imagine the US left more than one behind. The following gives more details which I can't believe because it is staggering. I too am waiting for more information from the DoD on the real numbers and whether they were properly disabled.

Staggering Costs – U.S. Military Equipment Left Behind In Afghanistan

The Biden Administration is hiding previously published audit reports quantifying U.S.-funded military gear into Afghanistan. Reports disappeared from federal websites over the weekend.

www.forbes.com

The relevant conclusions Putin reached are revealing themselves in real time.

 

[Danzilla31]

This was an interesting article and I'm wondering what people think about it.

Opinion | The U.S. could stop a war with Ukraine if it acknowledged reality

A Russia-Ukraine war can likely be stemmed at the low cost of acknowledging reality. That's a better outcome than risking war for the sake of principle.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[John Parks]

It appears CBS News got the official White House memo and ran with it...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496384275373236224

 

[Am_P]

That's actually funny but also highlights how irrational some Americans can be in the use of propaganda.

Let's do photos of Washington DC in 1608 and 1492 next....

If someone comes up with a petition to give DC back to the Powhatans or Nacotchtanks I'd consider signing.

Whut? 20,000 years of Native American heritage?? Nah...that's nothing....

 

[SithZedi]

Whut? 20,000 years of Native American heritage?? Nah...that's nothing....
View attachment 54122

Ha, that's awesome. That last one on the right is the strangest looking Centaur I ever saw....

 

[mtrycrafts]

You are right the previous administration made a deal with the Taliban. The Taliban deal was part of their strategy to lower the US footprint in the region as much as possible and as orderly as possible. It was done in multiple parts in coordination with the Abraham Accords to ratchet down tension in the region. Israel of course is arguably central to all the problems in the region.

The BA overturned many of Trumps policies or deals immediately after taking office, others later on. If they found the deal with the Taliban did not fit their strategy, they could have amended or cancelled it as Trump did with Obama's 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The BA did not do that. Why not? Another interesting question.

What is important to the situation now is what Putin thinks. He doesn't care about the Trump agreement. He would care about analyzing the performance of the US military under Biden's Pentagon and how the withdrawal was executed. That has nothing to do with Trump. Putin would have also sent under cover Spetsnaz to question former US trained Aftgan military staff on the latest US tactics and instructional manuals.

As for what equipment we left behind, all it takes is only one Blackhawk or A29 to get the information they need.
I would imagine the US left more than one behind. The following gives more details which I can't believe because it is staggering. I too am waiting for more information from the DoD on the real numbers and whether they were properly disabled.

Staggering Costs – U.S. Military Equipment Left Behind In Afghanistan

The Biden Administration is hiding previously published audit reports quantifying U.S.-funded military gear into Afghanistan. Reports disappeared from federal websites over the weekend.

www.forbes.com

The relevant conclusions Putin reached are revealing themselves in real time.

I offer you this to read from the top to the bottom. Don't skim it but take it all in:

Republicans Inflate Cost of Taliban-Seized U.S. Military Equipment - FactCheck.org