There is such a mix of factors it is hard to know exactly where we are.
Omicron is highly contagious, and the new B. 2A Omicron variant looks from early UK data that is can slightly outpace the B 1A. Omicron, which if it proves true is astonishing.
There is no evidence it is more or less severe. So that it why it is a variant of interest and not concern.
I think it is difficult to assess severity. Omicron still seems capable of being very lethal to the unvaccinated. Three doses of vaccine does seem highly protective against serious illness and death, although there is increased vaccine escape compared to other variants. However almost all individuals on vents in ICUs or dying are UNVACCINATED! I can not emphasize this more.
The above does provided rationale for both Pfizer and Moderna developing specific vaccines against Omicron.
This
recent paper confirms that people who had the Modern vaccine compared to Pfizer do have a significantly lower risk of breakthrough infection.
I find recent data from the UK of concern, as it is diverging from the South African experience.
Here is recent UK case data. You will note that cases in the UK are plateauing at a higher rate than would be expected. Case rates in the South East of England are rising again. However people in hospital are declining, so most of these must be breakthrough cases.
Deaths which are a late indicator are staying high. This leads me to suspect that Omicron is not so innocent in the unvaccinated, as the UK only record cases as Covid if within 28 days of a positive test. So most of those deaths will be Omicron now and not Delta.
The major issue of course is what does the future look like. Well probably not as good as we all hoped and I think many expect. I highly doubt it will be over after this first Omicron surge and I expect further surges. I expect more variants, but will they get a foothold? It is hard to conceive of a variant significantly more infectious than Omicron. So a new variant would find it hard to get a foothold without vaccine and past infection escape. This has to be a big concern, and could really up end everything.
I do anticipate more Omicron waves. It would be most unlikely this nightmare will be over after the current wave.
So what will life look like.
Here is a recent JAMA opinion piece from eminent authors which all could benefit from reading.
My own personal view is that the situation will remain difficult in waves, until we have a successful universal SARS vaccine. We are probably at least 2 years away from this at the most optimistic.
