Coronavirus

[GO-NAD!]

Its only a matter of time before Omicron shows up " officially" in the US. And I would bet Fla will be the first spot, as the state has been wide open to all travel.

The fact that it has been found in Canada, Australia, Israel and several European countries tells me that the chances of it not being in the US yet are very low.

 

[shadyJ]

Some news about Omicron from the Jerusalem Post: Pfizer vaccine seems to offer a fair amount of protection against it. The article says that unvaccinated people who get it are 2.4 times more likely to develop severe symptoms, but it doesn't say compared to what- the Delta variant?

 

[Swerd]

Some news about Omicron from the Jerusalem Post: Pfizer vaccine seems to offer a fair amount of protection against it.

If that measure of vaccine protection was quickly obtained, it was limited to the antibodies in the plasma from vaccinated people. If so, that's only part of a full answer. It ignored the role of T-cells in immunity.

Still, a partial answer that is positive, is nice to know.

 

[Danzilla31]

From what I'm reading and our experts on this thread are saying it's going to take around 3 to 4 weeks before they really know what we are dealing with with this variant. So until then I'm just going to be cautious but calm nothing we can do other then that until they know more about it

 

[Mr._Clark]

Its only a matter of time before Omicron shows up " officially" in the US. And I would bet Fla will be the first spot, as the state has been wide open to all travel.

Here you go:

>>The U.S. recorded its first confirmed case of the omicron variant Wednesday — a person in California who had been to South Africa — as scientists around the world raced to establish whether the new, mutant version of the coronavirus is more dangerous than previous ones.<<<

US reports 1st case of omicron variant in returning traveler

The U.S. identified its first known case of the omicron variant Wednesday — in a vaccinated traveler returning to California from South Africa — as scientists around the world raced to establish whether the new, mutant version of the coronavirus is more dangerous than the previous ones.

apnews.com

 

[Mr._Clark]

Some news about Omicron from the Jerusalem Post: Pfizer vaccine seems to offer a fair amount of protection against it. The article says that unvaccinated people who get it are 2.4 times more likely to develop severe symptoms, but it doesn't say compared to what- the Delta variant?

From the article:

>>>Two cardiologists from Sheba Medical Center were verified as infected with the Omicron variant, a spokesperson for the hospital confirmed. He said they were experiencing “very light symptoms.”

One of the doctors, in his mid 40s, brought the variant into Israel upon returning from a medical conference in London. He tested negative when he boarded the airplane from the United Kingdom to Israel and on arrival, but a few days later began experiencing symptoms. . . . Before entering isolation, the doctor had performed several cardiac catheterizations and attended at least two other large events. He was also in contact with the second cardiologist, in his 70s, who is now also infected with the variant.

Both doctors were fully vaccinated with three shots of the Pfizer corona vaccine.<<<

Two is obviously a tiny data set, but it does show that it can infect people who've had three shots (I'm not saying vaccines are completely ineffective, etc.).

 

[davidscott]

Contagious yes but hopefully milder symptoms than Delta. This might actually be a good thing as more anti vaxers will become infected and develop some immunity. They're not gonna get vaccinated anyway.

 

[Verdinut]

On CBC News, I heard that there were a few cases of Omicron infection in Nigeria back to last October.

Possibly that variant is older than a few months. Time will tell.

 

[TLS Guy]

Here you go:

>>The U.S. recorded its first confirmed case of the omicron variant Wednesday — a person in California who had been to South Africa — as scientists around the world raced to establish whether the new, mutant version of the coronavirus is more dangerous than previous ones.<<<

US reports 1st case of omicron variant in returning traveler

The U.S. identified its first known case of the omicron variant Wednesday — in a vaccinated traveler returning to California from South Africa — as scientists around the world raced to establish whether the new, mutant version of the coronavirus is more dangerous than the previous ones.

apnews.com

The guy travelled back from South Africa on November 22, but became positive two days ago November 29. He had had two doses of vaccine, but not the booster. His symptoms are described as mild.

So what we need to know is the severity in the unvaccinated and the severity in the fully vaccinated, including booster. Also the incidence of breakthrough cases will also be important.

We just don't know enough about this variant yet, so we have to be patient. In the meantime keep exposures to the minimum, mask up and make sure you are fully vaccinated, and that includes boosting.

 

[Mr._Clark]

On CBC News, I heard that there were a few cases of Omicron infection in Nigeria back to last October.

Possibly that variant is older than a few months. Time will tell.

Interesting. Here's an article from NPR here in the US discussing a case in Nigeria in October.

>>>Genomic sequencing of positive cases of COVID-19 among incoming international travelers has confirmed an omicron case dating back to October, the Nigeria Center for Disease Control said in a statement issued by its director-general. Nigeria has also identified two cases of the omicron variant among travelers who arrived from South Africa last week.

"Retrospective sequencing of the previously confirmed cases among travelers to Nigeria also identified the omicron variant among the sample collected in October 2021," Nigeria CDC director-general Dr. Ifedayo Adetifa said.<<<

Nigeria detects an omicron case from weeks before it was first reported in S. Africa

It is the first West African country that has recorded the omicron variant and adds to a list of nearly 20 countries where the variant has been detected.

www.npr.org

 

[TLS Guy]

Interesting. Here's an article from NPR here in the US discussing a case in Nigeria in October.

>>>Genomic sequencing of positive cases of COVID-19 among incoming international travelers has confirmed an omicron case dating back to October, the Nigeria Center for Disease Control said in a statement issued by its director-general. Nigeria has also identified two cases of the omicron variant among travelers who arrived from South Africa last week.

"Retrospective sequencing of the previously confirmed cases among travelers to Nigeria also identified the omicron variant among the sample collected in October 2021," Nigeria CDC director-general Dr. Ifedayo Adetifa said.<<<

Nigeria detects an omicron case from weeks before it was first reported in S. Africa

It is the first West African country that has recorded the omicron variant and adds to a list of nearly 20 countries where the variant has been detected.

www.npr.org

That is what you would expect. The rise in cases is exponential, and therefore to the log, and not linear. So from one case infecting one, you will have two in a week may be and then 20 in the next week. In another week 200. And so it goes, but that would even be assuming a very, very high transmission rate and assume that each infected person would infect another, where as the R has been in the range of 1.4 to 1.5. So that would be assuming an R of 2.

 

[shadyJ]

Contagious yes but hopefully milder symptoms than Delta. This might actually be a good thing as more anti vaxers will become infected and develop some immunity. They're not gonna get vaccinated anyway.

I'm just hoping the immunity they develop comes from the cessation of all cellular activity. That ought to help raise the average IQ of the population by a few points.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Contagious yes but hopefully milder symptoms than Delta. This might actually be a good thing as more anti vaxers will become infected and develop some immunity. They're not gonna get vaccinated anyway.

I find myself wondering how much natural immunity actually helps. According to the link below, the CDC estimates there have been 146.6 million infections (about 44%). There are about 200 million fully vaccinated in the U.S. (about 60%) There obviously has to be at least some overlap in these numbers (if the CDC estimate is accurate), but one would think there must be quite a few people who were infected but not vaccinated. This is just a guess, but it seems quite possible that something like 80-90% of the population has been either infected, vaccinated, or both. This assumes, of course, that the CDC estimate is accurate.

Perhaps the waves are driven to some degree by rising and falling natural immunity (and of course the variants).

Cases, Data, and Surveillance

Cases, data, and surveillance to track and analyze COVID-19.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Mr._Clark]

Perhaps this partly explains the excess deaths statistics since the start of the pandemic:

>>>Survivors of severe COVID-19—especially those younger than 65 years—may be at more than twice the risk of dying within the next year than those who had mild or moderate illness or were never infected, finds a study today in Frontiers in Medicine.

Another finding of the analysis of electronic health records of 13,638 patients who tested positive or negative for COVID-19 is that only 20% of those who had severe COVID-19 (requiring hospitalization) and died did so because of complications of their infection, such as abnormal blood clotting, respiratory failure, or cardiovascular problems.

Rather, 80% were due to different reasons typically considered unrelated to COVID-19.

"Since these deaths were not for a direct COVID-19 cause of death among these patients who have recovered from the initial episode of COVID-19, this data suggests that the biological insult from COVID-19 and physiological stress from COVID-19 is significant," wrote the University of Florida at Gainesville researchers. . . .

"Taking your chances and hoping for successful treatment in the hospital doesn't convey the full picture of the impact of COVID-19," he said. "Our recommendation at this point is to use preventive measures, such as vaccination, to prevent severe episodes of COVID-19."

In their conclusion, the researchers said, "The benefits of preventing severe COVID-19 goes beyond flattening the curve for overwhelming the health system with hospitalized patients but extends to decreased 12-month mortality risk for conditions other than COVID-19 directly."<<<

Severe COVID tied to high risk of death, mostly by other causes, within year

www.cidrap.umn.edu

 

[TLS Guy]

Perhaps this partly explains the excess deaths statistics since the start of the pandemic:

>>>Survivors of severe COVID-19—especially those younger than 65 years—may be at more than twice the risk of dying within the next year than those who had mild or moderate illness or were never infected, finds a study today in Frontiers in Medicine.

Another finding of the analysis of electronic health records of 13,638 patients who tested positive or negative for COVID-19 is that only 20% of those who had severe COVID-19 (requiring hospitalization) and died did so because of complications of their infection, such as abnormal blood clotting, respiratory failure, or cardiovascular problems.

Rather, 80% were due to different reasons typically considered unrelated to COVID-19.

"Since these deaths were not for a direct COVID-19 cause of death among these patients who have recovered from the initial episode of COVID-19, this data suggests that the biological insult from COVID-19 and physiological stress from COVID-19 is significant," wrote the University of Florida at Gainesville researchers. . . .

"Taking your chances and hoping for successful treatment in the hospital doesn't convey the full picture of the impact of COVID-19," he said. "Our recommendation at this point is to use preventive measures, such as vaccination, to prevent severe episodes of COVID-19."

In their conclusion, the researchers said, "The benefits of preventing severe COVID-19 goes beyond flattening the curve for overwhelming the health system with hospitalized patients but extends to decreased 12-month mortality risk for conditions other than COVID-19 directly."<<<

Severe COVID tied to high risk of death, mostly by other causes, within year

www.cidrap.umn.edu

Excess deaths following severe Covid-19 is something that we have all worried about. As I have pointed out here many times, Covid-19 is a vascular infection. So late mortality has been a concern. It seems our concern of this was justified. Covid-19 proving to be a real poisoned pill does not surprise me.

Now there is an outbreak in Norway. There was a Christmas party in which on attendee showed up positive for Omicron variant after arriving back from South Africa.
Now 50 or more have tested positive, and are ill, but severity unknown. Vaccination is said to be high among those infected, but no specific data so far released.

In the UK, although government advice has not recommended cancellation of Christmas parties, people are. In addition restaurants report a high level of cancellations related to the Omicron news. Fears are that after the last year, this will decimate the hospitality industry, with restaurants the most at risk.

It won't take much more bad news, to cause major economic disruption, even if governments do not impose severe restrictions. It seems the public are ready to assume the worst, whether justified or not, and avoid contacts in mass gatherings.

 

[NINaudio]

It seems the public are ready to assume the worst, whether justified or not, and avoid contacts in mass gatherings.

So the public is FINALLY going to start avoiding it like the plague? In the UK at least. I doubt that will happen in the US

 

[Mr._Clark]

Excess deaths following severe Covid-19 is something that we have all worried about. As I have pointed out here many times, Covid-19 is a vascular infection. So late mortality has been a concern. It seems our concern of this was justified. Covid-19 proving to be a real poisoned pill does not surprise me.

There are apparently neurological issues as well in some people. This is anecdotal, but I have heard that some relatively young people with no apparent prior issues can have significant neurological symptoms for months after contracting COVID. (pardon the vague nature of that, but I'm not entirely comfortable describing this in more detail).

Based on some google research, it appears to me that this type of thing is not well-understood right now. Here's one example:

>>>A consensus has by no means emerged about what exactly occurs during a viral invasion of the brain. Walter J. Koroshetz, director of the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, said during a separate SFN 2021 press event that definitive evidence of SARS-COV-2 infecting neurons is “controversial.”

“As an NIH director, I would probably punt and say we’ll have to see how the evidence comes out in the end,” Koroshetz said. Other researchers have suggested that COVID neurological symptoms might be caused by inflammation, by leakage of the blood brain barrier, or by mucosal cells in the lining of the nose becoming infected and dying, leading to the death of nearby neurons as well.<<<

How COVID Might Sow Chaos in the Brain

SARS-CoV-2 appears to travel widely across the cerebral cortex

www.scientificamerican.com

 

[Verdinut]

Virus that causes COVID-19 found in Quebec deer

https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/covid-white-tailed-deer-quebec-1.6269947

 

[Mr._Clark]

In lieu of reliable data concerning the omicron variant, here's some anecdotal, speculative, and unreliable (but somewhat interesting) information:

>>>Those who have already had other variants of coronavirus do not appear to be protected against Omicron but vaccines are still believed to protect against severe disease, according to top scientists from the global health body and South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).

"Previous infection used to protect against Delta but now with Omicron that doesn't seem to be the case," said Anne von Gottberg, microbiologist at NICD.
The full picture in South Africa will not become clear until "people get so sick that they need to go to hospital" which is generally "three, four weeks later," says Prof Salim Abdool Karim of the Africa Task Force for Coronavirus.

"But the feedback we're getting from the ground is that there's really no red flags - we're not seeing anything dramatically different, what we're seeing is what we are used to," he told the BBC's Newsday programme.<<<

Covid: South Africa new cases surge as Omicron spreads

The new Omicron variant has now become dominant, the country's top medical scientists say.

www.bbc.com

 

[TLS Guy]

Virus that causes COVID-19 found in Quebec deer

https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/covid-white-tailed-deer-quebec-1.6269947

https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/covid-white-tailed-deer-quebec-1.6269947

They have found a bunch of deer infected in Iowa also.