Are Republican Presidents Bad for the Economy? Who knew?

Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
A recent article appeared in the New York Times

Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?
GDP, jobs, and other indicators have all risen faster under Democrats for nearly the past century.
By David Leonhardt, February 2, 2021
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/opinion/sunday/democrats-economy.html?smid=em-share

The article began with this:
A president has only limited control over the economy. And yet there has been a stark pattern in the United States for nearly a century. The economy has grown significantly faster under Democratic presidents than Republican ones (since Franklyn Roosevelt in 1933).

It’s true about almost any major indicator: gross domestic product, employment, incomes, productivity, even stock prices. It’s true if you examine only the precise period when a president is in office, or instead assume that a president’s policies affect the economy only after a lag and don’t start his economic clock until months after he takes office. The gap “holds almost regardless of how you define success,” two economics professors at Princeton, Alan Blinder and Mark Watson, write. They describe it as “startlingly large.”
Here are a few graphics from the article:
Annual G.D.P. growth rate at the Start of a president's term
1612386981893.png

Six months later
1612386995103.png

One Year later
1612387011932.png


Since 1933, the economy has grown at an annual average rate of 4.6% under Democratic presidents and 2.4% under Republicans, according to a NYTimes analysis. In more concrete terms: The average income of Americans would be more than double its current level if the economy had somehow grown at the Democratic rate for all of the past nine decades. If anything, that period (which is based on data availability) is too kind to Republicans, because it excludes the portion of the Great Depression that happened on Herbert Hoover’s watch.
 
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Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
Annual growth rate of non-farm jobs at the start of the term
1612387179548.png


Six months later
1612387192620.png


One year later
1612387225763.png


The big question about these difference, of course, is why. What are the most plausible theories? First, it’s worth rejecting a few unlikely possibilities.
  • Congressional control is not the answer. The pattern holds regardless of which party is running Congress.
  • Deficit spending also doesn’t explain the gap: It is not the case that Democrats juice the economy by spending money and then leave Republicans to clean up the mess. Over the last four decades, in fact, Republican presidents have run up larger deficits than Democrats.
That leaves one broad possibility with a good amount of supporting evidence: Democrats have been more willing to heed economic and historical lessons about what policies actually strengthen the economy, while Republicans have often clung to theories that they want to believe – like the supposedly magical power of tax cuts and deregulation. Democrats, in short, have been more pragmatic.

This is absolutely the opposite of the so-called 'common wisdom' that GOP presidents are better for the economy.
 
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ryanosaur

ryanosaur

Audioholic Overlord
I've seen this report, too... perhaps focusing on the stock market, though.

Simple truth is, Republican government is really just a shill for the wealthy and big business. I don't know when they stopped ever caring for the "under-privileged" (non-1%-ers (though really their policies help all the 10-5% of the wealthiest), but they gladly convince and use those Blue Collar Rust Belt workers to keep them entrenched in positions of power. Whether it's Guns or Abortion or Crime... they pander to them while leaving them hanging when it comes to issues that matter.
 
T

trochetier

Audioholic
Republican admins have been good for high income folks with stock market investments...tax cuts!.
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
I thought that article was pretty bogus. Not because I think GOP presidents are good for the economy, but because in reality presidents have very little to do with national economic performance. Congress has more to do with it, but if you look at the Democratic presidents many were just in the right place at the right time. Clinton, for example. He had very little to do with the dot.com boom, but national wealth increased. Kennedy is credited with improving the economy by signing a hefty tax cut that reduced marginal tax rates and corporate tax rates. In 2019, regardless of how much Trump had to do with it, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%, which was what - about a 50 year record low? Presidential policy has a historically tenuous relationship with job creation.
 
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lp85253

Audioholic Chief
I've seen this report, too... perhaps focusing on the stock market, though.

Simple truth is, Republican government is really just a shill for the wealthy and big business. I don't know when they stopped ever caring for the "under-privileged" (non-1%-ers (though really their policies help all the 10-5% of the wealthiest), but they gladly convince and use those Blue Collar Rust Belt workers to keep them entrenched in positions of power. Whether it's Guns or Abortion or Crime... they pander to them while leaving them hanging when it comes to issues that matter.
The last truly "liberal" prez was LBJ.. That's a long freakin time ago.. Ok here's my thought: in Biden we finally have a politician with "nothing to lose" financially and a conscience.. OBAMA had to try to appease the gop to insure that it wouldn't take another generation before a black guy could get elected again...CLINTON was a southern dem which is equivalent to a moderate Republican and was in bed with Newt Gingerich, out of deference ...Carter was another southern dem..soooo.. We've had 50+ years of right wing leaning economics .in this country, pretty much unchecked.. As a matter of fact Nixon was the most progressive prez post LBJ....in Biden you have an old school FDR style dem and a base tired of trump and "trickle down" economics.. We may finally get some real progress instead of gridlock..the key is: get it done.. Make it part of the established "how it is" by the time the gop ( or whatever abortion they are replaced by) start giving out more tax breaks to the "job creators",and cutting social programs...
 
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lp85253

Audioholic Chief
Republican admins have been good for high income folks with stock market investments...tax cuts!.
And that's about it .. The top 20% income bracket ( ever shrinking) is now getting outvoted for the first time by people starting to realize they can vote in folks who might not screw em over...
 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
I thought that article was pretty bogus. Not because I think GOP presidents are good for the economy, but because in reality presidents have very little to do with national economic performance.
I think the article cracks open the long-held assumption that presidents have very little to do with national economic performance. It doesn't prove or disprove anything, but it does show a stark pattern that has been true in the USA for 14 presidents, 22 presidential 4-year terms, over a time span of 88 years, nearly a century. The economy has grown significantly faster under Democratic presidents than Republican ones – strong evidence that a president may very well have an effect over the economy.

You are arguing that this can't be true because of the long-held assumption that claims it can't be true. Circular logic? Or something akin to that.
Congress has more to do with it, but if you look at the Democratic presidents many were just in the right place at the right time …
The article directly addressed the question if Congressional control might be the answer. The observed pattern holds regardless of which party ran Congress. It correlated only to which party held the White House.
Presidential policy has a historically tenuous relationship with job creation.
Not according to the facts & figures in this article.
 
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Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
I think the article cracks open the long-held assumption that presidents have very little to do with national economic performance. It doesn't prove or disprove anything, but it does show a stark pattern that has been true in the USA for 88 years, nearly a century. The economy has grown significantly faster under Democratic presidents than Republican ones – strong evidence that a president may very well have an effect over the economy.

You are arguing that this can't be true, but because of the long-held assumption that claims it can't be true. Circular logic? Or something akin to that.
Not at all. This is flawed data, as I already mentioned. Trump, who IMO was an economic PITA to business with his tariffs and pissing off allies, still set an unemployment rate record low. Your argument for strong evidence sounds like a “hidden hand” theory.
 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
I've seen this report, too... perhaps focusing on the stock market, though.
According to this article, it’s true about almost any major indicator: gross domestic product, employment, incomes, productivity, even stock prices.

Although with stock prices, there are also plenty of examples of high stock prices when GDP and jobs growth were low. I believe that GDP and employment are better indicators of economic growth than Wall Street performance.
 
lovinthehd

lovinthehd

Audioholic Jedi
Not at all. This is flawed data, as I already mentioned. Trump, who IMO was an economic PITA to business with his tariffs and pissing off allies, still set an unemployment rate record low. Your argument for strong evidence sounds like a “hidden hand” theory.
What, high employment in fast food restaurants? He just happened to be around when that stat came out is more like it rather than him particularly having anything to do with job creation.
 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
Not at all. This is flawed data, as I already mentioned. Trump, who IMO was an economic PITA to business with his tariffs and pissing off allies, still set an unemployment rate record low. Your argument for strong evidence sounds like a “hidden hand” theory.
This NYT opinion piece reflected an article published by two economics professors at Princeton, Alan Blinder and Mark Watson. You will have to provide evidence that their data is flawed before Blinder & Watson, or the editors of the American Economic Review, accept your concept.
 

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lp85253

Audioholic Chief
I thought that article was pretty bogus. Not because I think GOP presidents are good for the economy, but because in reality presidents have very little to do with national economic performance. Congress has more to do with it, but if you look at the Democratic presidents many were just in the right place at the right time. Clinton, for example. He had very little to do with the dot.com boom, but national wealth increased. Kennedy is credited with improving the economy by signing a hefty tax cut that reduced marginal tax rates and corporate tax rates. In 2019, regardless of how much Trump had to do with it, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%, which was what - about a 50 year record low? Presidential policy has a historically tenuous relationship with job creation.
was FDR inconsequential..??
 
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lp85253

Audioholic Chief
This NYT opinion piece reflected an article published by two economics professors at Princeton, Alan Blinder and Mark Watson. You will have to provide evidence that their data is flawed before Blinder & Watson, or the editors of the publication, accept your concept.
it's not flawed .. it's an opinion .. and it seems to fairly accurately assess the dynamics of the economy and it's growth since FDR.. which is basically modern American history... some people still don't get it and think "they worked hard" for what they got, when really they've been handed every break in the book..then turn to "unity" politics when the voters wise up and turn out...
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
it's not flawed .. it's an opinion .. and it seems to fairly accurately assess the dynamics of the economy and it's growth since FDR.. which is basically modern American history... some people still don't get it and think "they worked hard" for what they got, when really they've been handed every break in the book..then turn to "unity" politics when the voters wise up and turn out...
You're a fool, and I'm tired of reading your entitled, I'm-owed-everything attitude. I'd normally ignore someone like you, but discounting the efforts of people who did make the right choices, work their asses off, made sacrifices, and hung in there until they got results, and are not people who got "every break in the book" pisses me off.
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
was FDR inconsequential..??
I didn't say that. On the other hand, FDR did not single-handedly design or implement all of the programs that we think were good ideas in the 1930s.
 
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lp85253

Audioholic Chief
You're a fool, and I'm tired of reading your entitled, I'm-owed-everything attitude. I'd normally ignore someone like you, but discounting the efforts of people who did make the right choices, work their asses off, made sacrifices, and hung in there until they got results, and are not people who got "every break in the book" pisses me off.
well coming from the right wing(white) privilege champ here , i'll take that as a compliment.. btw .. i like you about as much as you like me ... you can guess the rest of what i might say.. and you'd probably get about 1/2 way there ...;):)
 
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Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
This NYT opinion piece reflected an article published by two economics professors at Princeton, Alan Blinder and Mark Watson. You will have to provide evidence that their data is flawed before Blinder & Watson, or the editors of the American Economic Review, accept your concept.
I already did provide evidence that their data presentation does not reflect reality. And I'm not impressed by their academic positions. Zuckman and Saez, the two UC Berkeley professors who talked Sanders and Warren into their ill-conceived wealth tax proposals, not to mention Robert Reich, are proof that professorships don't guarantee worthy practical application of knowledge or the analysis of data.
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
What, high employment in fast food restaurants? He just happened to be around when that stat came out is more like it rather than him particularly having anything to do with job creation.
Thank you for supporting my conclusion.
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
well coming from the right wing(white) privilege champ here , i'll take that as a compliment.. btw .. i like you about as much as you like me ... you can guess the rest of what i might say.. and you'd probably get about 1/2 way there ...
That's okay. That was me being polite.
 
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