I'm glad to report that my brother is improving. He went into the ICU on Christmas Eve, on Christmas day he was on 100% O2 on a CPAP mask and could barely speak.
He improved over 24 hours with O2 reduced to 50%. He as better today, as of this morning he wass till in the ICU, but I think that may have been due to lack of beds. He is now on moderate oxygen supplementation. So he came close to getting intubated, very close, but the crisis appears to be receding.
Thank you all for your kind words.
Otherwise the news is mixed.
The new mutant strain is spreading fast in the UK. I expect more restrictions to be introduced Wednesday. If things keep up the UK will be out of hospital and ICU beds fast. Hospital staff are getting sick in very alarming numbers. The virus has now been detected in many countries far and wide. It is in most of Europe, Canada, Japan, Korea, and Australia. The largest numbers known are in the UK. The US continues to make a spectacle of itself on many fronts. Apparently we can not test for this new strain in any significant numbers. However I think it is almost certainly in California. Their rate of rise mirrors the UK.
The Pfizer vaccine continues to present problems in distribution and to some extent also the Moderna. Maintaining control of the cold chain is prooving difficult. Germany has already lost a significant number of doses due to inability to maintain the cold chain.
The UK is planning to roll out the Oxford Vaccine January 4 pending and expected EUA. Recent data shows the the correct dosing is highly effective. Apparently it is easy to manufacture and requires only normal refrigeration and no freezing. I seems stable, easy to roll out and administer. This vaccine will be a major game changer.
It looks as if the roll out of the Oxford vaccine is being coordinated with India, the worlds largest vaccine manufacturer in Puna, the Serum Institute, apparently has millions of doses ready to go. These are for distribution in India and the third world.
The new rapidly spreading mutant is a big problem. It is going to exhaust resources fast and lead to triage of care. This is imminent in California and Scotland and soon UK wide.
SAGE, the scientific body formed to advise the UK government, reported today, that in order to stand a chance of catching up to this new mutant strain, the UK need to carry out 2 million vaccinations per week. By my calculations, if the new strain dominates here, which I expect, then we will need to carry out 10 million vaccinations a week. I do not think this can be done using trained medical staff alone. The UK are in the process of recruiting volunteers to undergo rapid training and join the St. John's ambulance brigade. I think this is feasible for the Oxford vaccine, but not the Pfizer and probably not Moderna.
The BBC devoted a whole 1 hour program to the Oxford vaccine. The BBC's best medical correspondent, Fergus Walsh did the entire program. He is a superb interviewer. He asks the right questions and gives experts time to answer in depth and he never interrupts them. He interviewed Professor Sarah Gilberts at length.
She said Oxford had the design of the vaccine within 48 hours of the genome of Covid-19 being known.
She said, criteria were set, that the vaccine had to be easy to produce, cheap, be easy to handle, distribute and administer. She feels the Oxford vaccine fulfills all these criteria. They have a small manufacturing site at the Jenner institute which produced the vaccine for phase 1 and 2. Plans for manufacture started right away. The scientist in charge of this lab was real character. She was clearly highly competent and by her speech was a Londoner of humble origins. As is often the case of these Londoners she was absolutely hilarious. She clearly loved and was enthusiastic about her work.
When it got to phase III, that little lab could not make enough. Astra/Zeneka were not able to produce any vaccine in early phase III. An Italian manufacturer were engaged to produce the initial doses. Their competence seems to have been marginal to say the least. This is how the "lucky" dosing error occurred.
Lastly, Sarah Gilbert stated that if required the Oxford vaccine, can be quickly edited "on the fly", if needs be. It is crucial that the whole world achieve herd immunity as fast as possible. Until that occurs significant risk remains. As far as I can tell the Oxford vaccine it the only one that is suitable to administer in the vast poorer areas of the globe. We need more suitable candidates on stream fast.
