Coronavirus

[Mr._Clark]

Here are two contradictory reports concerning whether or not mutations are effecting the spread of the corona virus. As a practical matter, I'm not sure it makes that much difference in terms of how we respond to the virus.

Mutations not making coronavirus able to spread more rapidly -study

The COVID-19-causing coronavirus is mutating as it spreads around the world in the pandemic, but none of the mutations currently documented appears to be making it able to spread more rapidly, scientists said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

Evidence Builds That an Early Mutation Made the Pandemic Harder to Stop (Published 2020)

Scientists were initially skeptical that a mutation made the coronavirus more contagious. But new research has changed many of their minds.

www.nytimes.com

 

[lp85253]

So, it should be exciting to see what type of craziness erupts as people hoard and empty the shelves on this last day of availability.
Did the governor of Pa request National Guard be stationed at the stores to maintain order?
I hope I'm wrong, but between the opportunity for a super spreader event, physical violence between hoarders over the last few bottles, and looting in the confusion this seems like an invitation for disaster that may exceed potential benefits!
I hope it does not become the sh!t show I'm envisioning!

i'm not "getting" this.. how does closing liquor stores cause a shitshow... ?.. people can wander over to the grocery store and grab whatever they need..or walgreens.. or costco..ect ect.. btw no membership needed for costco liquor purchase

 

[Ponzio]

I hope it does not become the sh!t show I'm envisioning!

From your mouth to god's ears.

 

[lp85253]

not here in Pennsyltucky, select grocery stores carry wine and beer only. I have a Total Wine only 35 mins away in Delaware, the best selection I know of

i guess the folks who are slowly killing themselves will have to resort to beer and wine then..

 

[highfigh]

Keep in mind that with how densly populated NY city is, it's not unexpected that it have a massive spread even with people cooperating and doing what they're supposed to.

Dense population is very bad when it comes to infection rates.

The population of eight counties in California exceeds that of the whole state of New York- NYC is more densely populated, but many less densely populated areas are seeing a surge, just like the more dense cities.

The real problem- people don't like to be told to do things.

 

[highfigh]

Keep in mind that with how densly populated NY city is, it's not unexpected that it have a massive spread even with people cooperating and doing what they're supposed to.

Dense population is very bad when it comes to infection rates.

Dense population is bad for a lot of things, IMO. Disease spread and crime being two of the worst WRT loss of life.

 

[panteragstk]

The population of eight counties in California exceeds that of the whole state of New York- NYC is more densely populated, but many less densely populated areas are seeing a surge, just like the more dense cities.

The real problem- people don't like to be told to do things.

I don't disagree, but was merely trying to show whay NY may be worse even with people doing what they're supposed to...now anyway. No idea if they were at the start.

 

[KEW]

i'm not "getting" this.. how does closing liquor stores cause a shitshow... ?.. people can wander over to the grocery store and grab whatever they need..or walgreens.. or costco..ect ect.. btw no membership needed for costco liquor purchase

I hope I'm wrong, but I do know a few alcoholics, and they really don't drink beer or wine.
Physiologically there may be little difference, but I don't think (I'm not sure) they look at it that way, and this is a case where perceptions can rule over reality.
I'm of the mind that for them the possibility of months without access will make "stocking up" today their "prime directive"!

 

[highfigh]

I don't disagree, but was merely trying to show whay NY may be worse even with people doing what they're supposed to...now anyway. No idea if they were at the start.

I hope I'm wrong, but I do know a few alcoholics, and they really don't drink beer or wine.
Physiologically there may be little difference, but I don't think (I'm not sure) they look at it that way, and this is a case where perceptions can rule over reality.
I'm of the mind that for them the possibility of months without access will make "stocking up" today their "prime directive"!

As long as they don't hoard other things that people need in addition to booze, I don't care but when TP is hoarded even though it's not a major symptom of COVID, I fail to see the logic in it. People need to be a bit creative.

 

[lp85253]

I hope I'm wrong, but I do know a few alcoholics, and they really don't drink beer or wine.
Physiologically there may be little difference, but I don't think (I'm not sure) they look at it that way, and this is a case where perceptions can rule over reality.
I'm of the mind that for them the possibility of months without access will make "stocking up" today their "prime directive"!

i'm starting to get it now..can costco have liquor there?.. that would be a good thing .. if it truly is *just* liquor stores.. well that's kinda f'ed up.. talk about puritan control....bet it makes a liquor license a valued commodity...

 

[Ponzio]

I hope it does not become the sh!t show I'm envisioning!

Just for $hit & giggles, after I passed by to pick-up a book/2 CD's at my local library (curb-side pick-up) I decided to pass by the liquor store.

Reports of doom & gloom it seems were way overblown, at least around here. Only 4 people at a time were let in, mask wearing/social distancing were enforced both outside and inside the store. Easy peasey. The gorgeous weather didn't hurt either.

It's amazing how smooth things can go when people cooperate and no one's civil liberties were impinged.

 

[Irvrobinson]

An interesting article on the availability of the freezers necessary for mRNA vaccine distribution:

'It’s been crazy' — Maker of ultra-cold freezers sees surge in demand to store Covid vaccines

"Right now, we are out of everything," Dan Hensler of So-Low Environmental Equipment told CNBC.

www.cnbc.com

 

[eljr]

i'm not "getting" this.. how does closing liquor stores cause a shitshow... ?.. people can wander over to the grocery store and grab whatever they need..or walgreens.. or costco..ect ect.. btw no membership needed for costco liquor purchase

can't here

 

[eljr]

Dense population is bad for a lot of things, IMO. Disease spread and crime being two of the worst WRT loss of life.

for crime, that is not true

there is no correlation between increased density of population and increased crime

 

[Swerd]

This has the makings of a good medical mystery:

>>>AstraZeneca’s new clinical trial results are positive but confusing, leaving many experts wanting to see more data before passing final judgment on how well the vaccine will work. . .
What have the AstraZeneca trials found?

. . . On Monday, AstraZeneca and Oxford released details about the first 131 volunteers to get Covid-19 in late-stage trials in the United Kingdom and Brazil. All of the volunteers got two doses about a month apart, but in some cases the first dose was only at half strength.

Surprisingly, the vaccine combination in which the first dose was only at half strength was 90 percent effective at preventing Covid-19 in the trial. In contrast, the combination of two, full-dose shots led to just 62 percent efficacy.

Why would that be?
No one knows. The researchers speculated that the lower first dose did a better job of mimicking the experience of an infection, promoting a stronger immune response. But other factors, like the size and makeup of the groups that got different doses, may also be at play.<<<

What We Know About AstraZeneca’s Head-Scratching Vaccine Results (Published 2020)

AstraZeneca’s new clinical trial results are positive but confusing, leaving many experts wanting to see more data before passing final judgment on how well the vaccine will work.

www.nytimes.com

I was busy yesterday and didn't see your post until today. Everyone has been wondering what happened with the AstraZeneca (AZ) trial, including myself. It seems like a monumental screw-up. Clinical Trials 101 says to get the dosage nailed down before you begin large scale clinical trials. Why didn't AZ do this?

Thanks for posting that link. It provides a little more info than I was able to read, especially how many people received which of the two doses, <2,800 for the low dose, and >23,000 for the high dose.

It does seem that AZ was under pressure to report some results of their trial, no matter how incomplete their data. Their press release left everyone asking more questions than it answered. To me it smacks of "Press Release Spin". Their biggest mistake was to create a composite efficacy number of 70%. The high dose group of >23,000 people had an estimated efficacy of 62%, and the low dose group of <2,800 people had 90%. I can understand their disappointment with the 62% value, and their encouragement by the 90% value, but they should not have come up with that composite value of 70%

Which group of people generated an efficacy rate of 70%? You cannot use a weighted average of the low-dose and high-dose groups. In the USA, the FDA would not accept such data. You must immunize a sufficiently large group with the same dose of the vaccine. That composite number might seem alright scientifically, but statisticians will be all over it with hammers & crowbars. Because large clinical trials are all about statistical validity, the statisticians get to call the shots.

The group with 90% efficacy, <2,800 is too small to meet the statistical standards required by a vaccine trial, a >95% confidence interval that the sample of immunized people is truly random, and not a non-random sampling error.

AstraZeneca has some explaining to do. More importantly, they have to immunize a lot more people. Their vaccine looks like it has promise of being effective. Let's see some data to conclusively demonstrate that promise.

 

[davidscott]

It looks like a really really bad holiday season is in store for us. Hospital and death numbers are way up and we haven't even reached Thanksgiving yet. Large numbers of people flying this week. Man we could be doubling down on the surge then even doubling down again for Christmas. Young people really ought to think twice about visiting their parents (and grand parents) for the holidays this year. The numbers could be mind boggling.

 

[eljr]

It looks like a really really bad holiday season is in store for us. Hospital and death numbers are way up and we haven't even reached Thanksgiving yet. Large numbers of people flying this week. Man we could be doubling down on the surge then even doubling down again for Christmas. Young people really ought to think twice about visiting their parents (and grand parents) for the holidays this year. The numbers could be mind boggling.

all this will compound, from Thanksgiving to Christmas to New Years.... people will not forgo a few days of pleasure

by the 2nd or 3rd week of January virtually every hospital in the country will have to make decisions about who will live and die, mass graves will be dug across the country like they were in NYC in the spring and TX now.

Meantime we have a president that does not say one fuckin word to stop his flock from doing this.

Look out folks, true hell on earth awaits us but enjoy you Holiday!

 

[davidscott]

all this will compound, from Thanksgiving to Christmas to New Years.... people will not forgo a few days of pleasure

by the 2nd or 3rd week of January virtually every hospital in the country will have to make decisions about who will live and die, mass graves will be dug across the country like they were in NYC in the spring and TX now.

Meantime we have a president that does not say one fuckin word to stop his flock from doing this.

Look out folks, true hell on earth awaits us but enjoy you Holiday!

My niece is a nurse at a north Texas hospital. (Denton) Both of her parents are in the ICU or stepdown for covid. She told me that they have changed 2 wings to handle covid cases and might have to add a 3rd. She said that the entire staff is exhausted from working multiple shifts but the cases just keep coming. We have a vaccine shortly on the way. But it seems we as a country are hell bent on ignoring the numbers and doing what we want right now.

 

[eljr]

My niece is a nurse at a north Texas hospital. (Denton) Both of her parents are in the ICU or stepdown for covid. She told me that they have changed 2 wings to handle covid cases and might have to add a 3rd. She said that the entire staff is exhausted from working multiple shifts but the cases just keep coming. We have a vaccine shortly on the way. But it seems we as a country are hell bent on ignoring the numbers and doing what we want right now.

The number will easily double. This is going to be worse than anyone is imagining.

 

[lp85253]

can't here

gotcha .. it took a minute ...