Unraveling of America? Is the decline of our "empire" a given at this point?

[Jeff R.]

So you guys are tough. I will give you that. I have to take a break on this for awhile. I do appreciate the conversations and only being call a few nasty names a few times. I would like to say for the record I don’t think I insulted anyone and if I did it was not my intent.

I am always trying to understand you guys and your point of view. My experiences in my life just seem to take me down different paths on how we solve the divisiveness out there right now and improve our nation for the future. I think there is a large part of the the country that does see things in my perspective and wanted to at least provide a little insight to how I see things.

I have worked in a world of 24-7 food production/operations/distribution world my whole life and spend a lot of time defending decisions that were made at 2:00 AM on a Saturday night by the firing squad on Monday mornings. Most the folks on the squad don’t understand the details of the operation but are quick to call out the response with all the details that come to light later. So I am defensive by nature on the Monday morning quarterbacks out there. In general there are always areas we can improve and we have to learn as we go. We did not have a government developed response to this and have certainly improvised and corrected course as we have gone down this path. I still am not convinced another president would have done much better or worse and we will never know. I don’t expect perfection from Trump and I would not have from Obama or Clinton.


I’m sure I will jump in and out a bit more often.


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[Alex2507]

The numbers are all we have, you said yourself you don’t believe them either; so how then do you asses the success of Trump? I still believe they offer context to the situation. I personally think they are inflated. I would say many Covid deaths are tied to other serious health issues, Covid maybe be the straw that breaks the camels back in some cases. Even inflated they are not bad based on original predictions from back in March.

Now that the data is going through Washington, I believe them less. It goes without saying that you believe the new and improved lower numbers are a more accurate assessment. Didn't Trump say it would 'go away'? You probably didn't mean that prediction.

In my state for example. KY- total population lost in my state from Covid is 0.0245%. 1147 deaths, 58,501 positives and a population of 4.47MM. With a death rate of about 2% for those who tested positive. I consider that number to be pretty good. On top of that 76% of the deaths are over 75 years old. I am 43 and don’t worry if I get it. I will play the odds. How were we successful despite Trumps terrible leadership through this all. Did we get lucky?

Numbers out of Kentucky ... who counted them up? Bubba? TN had similar boasts until they didn't. I'm unconvinced of your success just like I was unconvinced of TN's boasts. I'll say the same to you that I said to some folks from Knoxville, "give it time".

Trying to stop the spread until a vaccine becomes available to save the 76% of deaths in the over 75 year old population isn't a life sentence. It's only until the vaccine. Not controlling the spread, for some, is a death sentence.

But yeah, at 43 you should be fine. Good thing, that.

 

[Jeff R.]

Now that the data is going through Washington, I believe them less. It goes without saying that you believe the new and improved lower numbers are a more accurate assessment. Didn't Trump say it would 'go away'? You probably didn't mean that prediction.



Numbers out of Kentucky ... who counted them up? Bubba? TN had similar boasts until they didn't. I'm unconvinced of your success just like I was unconvinced of TN's boasts. I'll say the same to you that I said to some folks from Knoxville, "give it time".

Trying to stop the spread until a vaccine becomes available to save the 76% of deaths in the over 75 year old population isn't a life sentence. It's only until the vaccine. Not controlling the spread, for some, is a death sentence.

But yeah, at 43 you should be fine. Good thing, that.

Not sure why the numbers in KY are not valid. Surprised you claim the Democratic Governor and Democratic Mayor (Louisville) would lie to make Trump look good.

For the record we don’t have Bubbas in KY. we call them Jim Bobs. You should be so ashamed....

Why are the RI numbers valid? Did you personally verify the accuracy...


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[KEW]

I am not sure I would put exactly that way. Biden’s solution is with hind site in mind. Or let’s call it a lesson learned. We do one at my company regularly to improve future performance. I am not sure I would fault Trump for not having this system in place. No prior administrations had thought to do it. No experts in our government who specialize in this did either.

It is a stretch to say Trump should have envisioned this 3 years prior and a put system in place.

There are so many patently wrong statements here!
Again hook, line, and sinker when Trump said "nobody could have predicted this"

How did you (and Trump) miss the lessons of Ebola?

Biden was in office when the H1N1 virus (aka swine flu) came through. Obama/Biden depleted the national stores of PPE in response (contrary to your awareness, someone had thought to do it). Obama tried to get budget increases to replenish those stores, but Tea Party Senators were entrenched in making sure no money went to Obama's concerns and they actually cut the budget instead!

Trump did have 3 years to restock those supplies, but didn't. That was obviously a mistake, but what really upsets me is that when Trump (partially) blocked travel from China, he probably bought us 4-6 weeks. He now knows there is a pandemic afoot and does nothing to replenish the stockpile of PPE (or much of anything else to prepare) with the time he bought!

Trump did not need to envision this three years prior because it was presented to him as part of the presidential transition process. See item 6 of Bidens plan where Biden wants to re-establish the biodefense program that Trump dismantled (after he saw their presentation on the risks associated with a pandemic). They warned of this scenario and Trump decided they were a waste of money!

If all you know is Trumps words then this was an event no one would see coming!
However, if you paid attention, you would know there was plenty of science indicating it was not a matter of if, but when!

Here is a Ted Talk by Bill Gates warning of such an event in 2015 (the video is 8-1/2 minutes, but my point is made in the first minute:

The next outbreak? We're not ready

In 2014, the world avoided a global outbreak of Ebola, thanks to thousands of selfless health workers -- plus, frankly, some very good luck. In hindsight, we know what we should have done better. So, now's the time, Bill Gates suggests, to put all our good ideas into practice, from scenario...

www.ted.com

And, indeed, Obama set up a response team in 2016 as a response to concerns about Ebola!

So Trump wants you to believe no one could have foreseen this, but the reality is anyone who worked in the field of epidemiology knew it was coming ... and the government had several of them working on this issue! Do you really think the CDC did not think a virus like Ebola or H1N1 could be part of our future? I bet now that you have been reminded, you recognize that Covid-19 was not quite the "nobody has ever seen anything like it" impossible to foresee event that Trump coaches it as!

I do agree that Trump has done a fine job of supporting development of a vaccine (aside from undermining how well it is received), but that is a "lowest common denominator" I would expect from any president of the US!

 

[Alex2507]

I would like to say for the record I don’t think I insulted anyone

My intelligence is insulted but the lack of name calling is a little disappointing.
It throws me off my game.

Why are the RI numbers valid?

Low numbers make the government look good and RI has an atrocious record for government officials going to jail. But our state guide lines for gatherings, masks and social distancing lend themselves to just over 100 new cases per day in a population of just over a million. When that number goes up, the size of allowed gatherings goes down. It takes a few weeks for the results to show up but they're keeping an eye on it.

Did you personally verify the accuracy...

No.

I just think that while data research and investigation is taking place we are not in a position to communicate the the public.

Especially when you disband and defund the researchers and the investigators.

 

[mtrycrafts]

...
Instead, Trump left states and companies in a "free for all" fighting it out for PPE!

Not only that but when a state bought some from an overseas source, Trump/government confiscated it. Shameful.

 

[mtrycrafts]

... I am not sure I would fault Trump for not having this system in place. No prior administrations had thought to do it. No experts in our government who specialize in this did either.
It is a stretch to say Trump should have envisioned this 3 years prior and a put system in place.
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Not so. Actually the government had plans to deal with such epidemics and had a team to follow it. The administration even had a practice exercise by the Obama team during transition. They were not interested. Now we pay the price.

No, not envision this but to continue the efforts of previous administrations like having a national stock pile of ventilators, etc. We had a stock pile, not empty shelves. he did nothing to maintain, restock as needed in the previous 3 years and most of all and most important, not disband, reduce the branch that deals with contagious diseases, follows the spread, etc.

 

[mtrycrafts]

...

But yeah, at 43 you should be fine. Good thing, that.

You think? They don't die from Covid? Kids die, 20 year olds die.
Maybe the stats favor him but this is deadly or if not, lasting effects if recovered.

 

[KEW]

Not only that but when a state bought some from an overseas source, Trump/government confiscated it. Shameful.

My interpretation is that the seller sold the PPE to the state, the fed contacted the seller and significantly out-bid the state, and the seller cancelled the delivery to the state and redirected the PPE to the feds. A nasty aspect is that the state was tracking the delivery and the PPE had reached the US dock before it was redirected to the feds.
I have not seen anything indicating that the fed knew these supplies were already under contract with that state (they could have, but who knows for sure).
But, either way, it is so encouraging to see our federal taxes in a bidding war against our state taxes.
I bet the seller got a sweet deal!

 

[Alex2507]

Maybe the stats favor him but this is deadly or if not, lasting effects if recovered.

I've been keeping up with the latest from TLS and Swerd as I'm able. I'm aware.

 

[mtrycrafts]

...
In my state for example. KY- total population lost in my state from Covid is 0.0245%. 1147 deaths, 58,501 positives and a population of 4.47MM. With a death rate of about 2% for those who tested positive. I consider that number to be pretty good. On top of that 76% of the deaths are over 75 years old. I am 43 and don’t worry if I get it. I will play the odds. How were we successful despite Trumps terrible leadership through this all. Did we get lucky?


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Well, your state has a population death rate of 256.6 death per million, 40% of the US rate. The US overall has 625.8. Not good at all.
That places the US at 10th worst performance out of 215 countries, etc.
KY would be in 30th place measured to the world countries.

COVID Live Update: 144,264,807 Cases and 3,066,213 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[mtrycrafts]

I’m not down playing any numbers. I’m saying the numbers that include these are still on the low end of projections. I also think is is not realistic to say none of the people would have died over the past 6 months.


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We'll never know. But, I bet it would be very low. And, we are nowhere near the end. What about next year, even with vaccines?

 

[Irvrobinson]

So you guys are tough. I will give you that.

This is one of most well-behaved Steam Vent political threads I've ever seen. I guess really tough comes later.

 

[Jeff R.]

Well, your state has a population death rate of 256.6 death per million, 40% of the US. The US overall has 625.8. Not good at all.
That places the US at 10th worst performance out of 215 countries, etc.
KY would be in 30th place measured to the world countries.

COVID Live Update: 144,264,807 Cases and 3,066,213 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

I’ve seen this data. I’m not sure that we are at the finish yet. So I am not saying we will be best, but it is early in this data. Also not sure all countries are keeping score the same way. But I don’t disagree that the number right now is great. Did the other countries start counting when we did or maybe disregard certain situations?

I also would point out that this can be interpreted in many ways. All countries are not equal. We have different population densities, health care systems, protocols etc. the main stage first world countries are the only one who we can probably refer to their data with some confidence. Do you really believe Columbia is accurately reporting?

We also have the most freedom in our country and cannot forget that! Our government can not just lock us down with force. Just not how it works.


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[mtrycrafts]

My interpretation is that the seller sold the PPE to the state, the fed contacted the seller and significantly out-bid the state, and the seller cancelled the delivery to the state and redirected the PPE to the feds. A nasty aspect is that the state was tracking the delivery and the PPE had reached the US dock before it was redirected to the feds.
I have not seen anything indicating that the fed knew these supplies were already under contract with that state (they could have, but who knows for sure).
But, either way, it is so encouraging to see our federal taxes in a bidding war against our state taxes.
I bet the seller got a sweet deal!

Yes, but I recall one state sending out their guard troops to a secret landing place to guard their cargo of this stuff on arrival against the government. Maybe MA?

 

[mtrycrafts]

I’ve seen this data. I’m not sure that we are at the finish yet. So I am not saying we will be best, but it is early in this data. Also not sure all countries are keeping score the same way. But I don’t disagree that the number right now is great. Did the other countries start counting when we did or maybe disregard certain situations?

I also would point out that this can be interpreted in many ways. All countries are not equal. We have different population densities, health care systems, protocols etc. the main stage first world countries are the only one who we can probably refer to their data with some confidence. Do you really believe Columbia is accurately reporting?

We also have the most freedom in our country and cannot forget that! Our government can not just lock us down with force. Just not how it works.


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Check out Sweden in that link and the two neighbors, Norway and Finland.
Sweden didn't do much of anything except perhaps notify the population.
Well, here you go:
US 633/mil
Sweden- 581/million
Norway- 50/mil
Finland- 62/mil

They are certainly equals in healthcare, density, and others.

India, huge population and areas of density: 70/ mil
Brazil, didn't do much for the citizens : 666/mil

 

[Alex2507]

This is one of most well-behaved Steam Vent political threads I've ever seen.

Yes, where is Herbu?

 

[Jeff R.]

Check out Sweden in that link and the two neighbors, Norway and Finland.
Sweden didn't do much of anything except perhaps notify the population.
Well, here you go:
US 633/mil
Sweden- 581/million
Norway- 50/mil
Finland- 62/mil

They are certainly equals in healthcare, density, and others.

India, huge population and areas of density: 70/ mil
Brazil, didn't do much for the citizens : 666/mil

So if we followed Sweden we would have better....they did nothing, now I am really confused.


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[mtrycrafts]

So if we followed Sweden we would have better....they did nothing, now I am really confused.


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Well, Not sure how much they did or didn't do. Perhaps they are more disciplined on their own?
We as a whole didn't lock down nationally, really. It was helter skelter. One only has to see all the crowds without masks, etc.
What did Norway and Finland do? Most likely a hell of a lot more. Why don't we have their rates? Or better? That would be 20k death in the US.

No reason to be confused. We didn't do enough obviously, period.

Talking about freedom you brought up. You don't think the Scandinavian countries don't have as much as we do, or perhaps even more? And, don't forget, we don't have absolute freedoms, especially during national emergencies.
Interestingly, since you mentioned freedoms, don't want to change subject but how about personal reproductive freedoms? Constant laws blocking it and the total elimination is near. So, no, freedoms are very selective.

 

[Swerd]

This is one of most well-behaved Steam Vent political threads I've ever seen. I guess really tough comes later.

Wait until Nov 4th.