Thinking about what in a driver could change over time...
I would think (but don't know) that the strength of the magnet decays over time as a matter of entropy - does anyone know?
Otherwise I see the surround as the element being subjected to the most wear because it is the item that is getting physically flexed. Obviously, we had the older foam ones that totally disintegrated over time.
The cone has plenty of vibrations/flexes traveling through it, but I do not believe the amplitude of these vibrations is ever enough to result in material fatigue.
Unfortunately, I don't know that much about speaker design. I don't know if the surround is designed to be stiff in order to assist in returning the cone to it's neutral position. I am inclined to think they are designed to provide minimal resistance while maintaining a seal around the perimeter of the cone and the magnetic field controls position. If the latter, then a 5% difference of a very small (spring) resistance is a very, very small change in resistance.
I am also not so knowledgeable of plastics as I would like (on the topic of long-term wear). When I was a kid, any plastic hinge (like on a plastic index card box) was not long for this world, but soon thereafter, the "living hinge" was being advertised as a self-healing system that would result in on-going repair of the molecular bonds that were broken from flexing. This has definitely changed the way I look at durability of plastics. However, I always assume that there is, at least, some accrued wear despite the healing, but I don't know.
Is there a "materials specialist" in the house?