KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
Here is a new clinical study that will possibly answer this question in time.
It is a shame to see valuable resources (the medical experts, test subjects, as well as the cost) being devoted to Trump's "flight of fantasy", but that is the nature of how the government works under Trump. It seems there are more promising things that could be evaluated right now!
It will be interesting to see how the results get spun/manipulated (or maybe they will just disappear?) to prevent "betraying" Trump and losing funding! If truth does not support Trump, there has to ba a conspiracy! They might stretch it until near the election in the hopes that Trump will be pre-occupied with more pressing issues than getting revenge on the NIH for presenting factual data!
 
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M

Midwesthonky

Audioholic General
On Saturday, Wisconsin recorded the highest number of positive COVID-19 tests yet. Correlation to the bars going nuts earlier in the week? Likely, but unable to prove. Only time will let us know via the data. Sadly, time will let us know via the data.

So in the meantime, I will still wear my mask. I will still shop only when I'm out of milk/perishables. I will still only shop at low-volume times to reduce my risk. With one relative lost to COVID-19, one survived, and one just testing positive on Friday, I'm not taking chances.
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Samurai
At the risk of getting TLS guy fired up, I noticed that the effectiveness of the Oxford vaccine has been questioned based on the monkey trials.

A question in my mind is why there was (apparently) a relatively modest antibody response in the monkeys.


>>>"The most important finding to me is the combination of considerable efficacy in terms of viral load and subsequent pneumonia, but no evidence of immune-enhanced disease," said Stephen Evans, professor of pharmacoepidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

"It is encouraging to see these results and suggests cautious optimism for the Oxford vaccine trial being done in humans."

Dr Penny Ward, a visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at King's College London, said: "Single doses of the vaccine produced high quantities of neutralising antibody in both species.

"It is helpful to see that monkeys vaccinated with this Sars-CoV-2 vaccine did not have any evidence of enhanced lung pathology and that, despite some evidence of upper respiratory tract infection by Sars-Cov-2 after high viral load virus challenge, monkeys given the vaccine did not have any evidence of pneumonia."

But Eleanor Riley, professor of Immunology and Infectious Disease at the University of Edinburgh, said there was both good and bad news in the most monkey trials:

“Whilst the vaccine induced neutralising antibodies and vaccinated animals experienced less severe clinical symptoms than unvaccinated animals (good), the neutralising antibody titres were low and insufficient to prevent infection and – importantly – insufficient to prevent viral shedding in nasal secretions (worrying).

“If similar results were obtained in humans, the vaccine would likely provide partial protection against disease in the vaccine recipient but would be unlikely to reduce transmission in the wider community.”<<<



 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
It is a shame to see valuable resources (the medical experts, test subjects, as well as the cost) being devoted to Trump's "flight of fantasy", but that is the nature of how the government works under Trump. It seems there are more promising things that could be evaluated right now!
It will be interesting to see how the results get spun/manipulated (or maybe they will just disappear?) to prevent "betraying" Trump and losing funding! If truth does not support Trump, there has to ba a conspiracy! They might stretch it until near the election in the hopes that Trump will be pre-occupied with more pressing issues than getting revenge on the NIH for presenting factual data!
I agree with you on principle, the NIH sponsored clinical trial is unlikely to provide different overall results from what has already been reported by those two large observational studies published in JAMA and NEJM. But the NIH clinical trial will be the definitive test, and it will satisfy any formal statistical analysis. If anyone questions the results of the JAMA or NEJM studies, they will demand a proper randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial that crosses all the Ts and dots all the Is – like this trial.

If the FDA expects to withdraw it's temporary approval of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin to treat Covid-19, it will need negative results from a full and proper clinical trial – like this one.

This trial is not expected to finish before October, but any trial of this size will have an interim analysis built into the protocol. When about half of the planned number of patients have been treated, if the interim analysis shows little or no benefit for experimental arm vs. the control arm, the trial can be stopped for futility without enrolling the full number of patients.
 
JerryLove

JerryLove

Audioholic Ninja
Interesting report on deficient Vitamin D levels and increased mortality on Covid-19 victims:

I would be shocked if it were not true. It would be like failing to find increased mortality among people with immunodeficiency disorders.
 
JerryLove

JerryLove

Audioholic Ninja
I agree with you on principle, the NIH sponsored clinical trial is unlikely to provide different overall results from what has already been reported by those two large observational studies published in JAMA and NEJM.
That depends on how through the combination of purge and terror campaigns have been at the NIH.

Trump was already cutting their budget and is blaming the NIH.



So... we'll see. The people who said "don't trust the government" have made a government that I don't trust... which I think is actually the goal of the groups that brought Trump to power in the first place... to bring down the US government.
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
At the risk of getting TLS guy fired up, I noticed that the effectiveness of the Oxford vaccine has been questioned based on the monkey trials.

A question in my mind is why there was (apparently) a relatively modest antibody response in the monkeys.


>>>"The most important finding to me is the combination of considerable efficacy in terms of viral load and subsequent pneumonia, but no evidence of immune-enhanced disease," said Stephen Evans, professor of pharmacoepidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

"It is encouraging to see these results and suggests cautious optimism for the Oxford vaccine trial being done in humans."

Dr Penny Ward, a visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at King's College London, said: "Single doses of the vaccine produced high quantities of neutralising antibody in both species.

"It is helpful to see that monkeys vaccinated with this Sars-CoV-2 vaccine did not have any evidence of enhanced lung pathology and that, despite some evidence of upper respiratory tract infection by Sars-Cov-2 after high viral load virus challenge, monkeys given the vaccine did not have any evidence of pneumonia."

But Eleanor Riley, professor of Immunology and Infectious Disease at the University of Edinburgh, said there was both good and bad news in the most monkey trials:

“Whilst the vaccine induced neutralising antibodies and vaccinated animals experienced less severe clinical symptoms than unvaccinated animals (good), the neutralising antibody titres were low and insufficient to prevent infection and – importantly – insufficient to prevent viral shedding in nasal secretions (worrying).

“If similar results were obtained in humans, the vaccine would likely provide partial protection against disease in the vaccine recipient but would be unlikely to reduce transmission in the wider community.”<<<



It is still largely good news. The good news is that none of the monkeys got pneumonia. They were also given very large viral loads. So the fact they still shed virus is still a concern but not a serious one.

However, remember this is a new vaccine and new disease, so the correct dosing of the vaccine is not yet known. So the first issue is would a larger dose of vaccine produced a larger antibody response. It is too soon to know the dose response curve. You have to be careful here, as there is a risk of inducing antibody levels high enough to produce vaccine disease enhancement.

The best news is that the vaccine prevented Covid-19 pneumonia.

The antibody response to the Moderna vaccine is more encouraging news. I remain optimistic we will solve this one and get released from this nightmare.



I think the best news is that
 
KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
Is there a good link for seeing number of cases and deaths state by state on a per day basis?
Maybe I am not looking the right place, but I don't see it on the CDC website (lots of other data, but I am really looking for cases per day as the status of each state and whether in decline or on the rise ... but also want to watch deaths as that is the number that should be independent of how much testing is being performed on any given day!
 
mtrycrafts

mtrycrafts

Seriously, I have no life.
Is there a good link for seeing number of cases and deaths state by state on a per day basis?
Maybe I am not looking the right place, but I don't see it on the CDC website (lots of other data, but I am really looking for cases per day as the status of each state and whether in decline or on the rise ... but also want to watch deaths as that is the number that should be independent of how much testing is being performed on any given day!
You need one like this for the US:

Can't help you.
 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
At the risk of getting TLS guy fired up, I noticed that the effectiveness of the Oxford vaccine has been questioned based on the monkey trials.

A question in my mind is why there was (apparently) a relatively modest antibody response in the monkeys.
I agree in general with TLS Guy's response.

This is very early in clinical testing. The primary goal of any phase 1 clinical trial is to find a safe dose and to proceed to a larger trial to assess effectiveness. If a single dose gets a less than optimal response, the doseage can be increased, or because this is a vaccine, a second booster dose can be added at a later time.

In today's Moderna press release, I remind everyone (including Wall Street) that today's results were a very early press release, not a scientific report. It spoke about preliminary findings from 8 people among the 45 who have been immunized.

Finally, I want to remind readers that an antibody response is only one of two major immune responses. It means enough antibodies were produced by the vaccination to mop up – neutralize – the newly produced infectious virus particles circulating in the blood of an immunized host. With some, but not all viruses, a neutralizing antibody response is all it takes.

The other major immune response is a T cell response. T cells are white blood cells, immune lymphocytes. Both the killer T cell (CD8) and helper T cell (CD4) types can lead to direct (killer T cells) or indirect (helper T cells) killing of viral-infected host cells. This kills off a virual infection more effectively than neutralizing antibodies. And, under the right circumstances, can lead to longer lasting immunity. The goal of any modern vaccine is to achieve both a neutralizing antibody response and a robust T cell response.

Immunology is complex, and not completely understood. I'm sorry if I can't explain it in simpler terms without severely oversimplifying it. It was never my main field when I was a working scientist. I can follow it well enough to nod my head intelligently at it, but not well enough to explain it well.

If nothing other than dangerous oversimplification will do – ignore the vaccines – there's always hydroxychloroquine and zinc ;). What have you got to loose?
 
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panteragstk

panteragstk

Audioholic Warlord
You need one like this for the US:

Can't help you.
I saw that one earlier. It even drills down by county. Pretty cool.
 

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