Coronavirus

[lovinthehd]

I think a re-watch of Bill Gates address several years ago is perhaps in order, particularly those upset about current problems with market values.

 

[Danzilla31]

It's option C. A friend was called in today, he did nine intubations. It's on, folks.

Man I'm sorry to hear that I'll be praying for them and for your friend helping them out and putting his own self on the line

 

[majorloser]

Oh, horse and buggy and whips. Now I remember.

And that's just Doug's bedroom

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[Matthew J Poes]

Half the population infected (3.5 billion or so) multiplied by 1% mortality (which seems optimistic) would be 35 million dead.

Getting a little more pessimistic. Imagine 70% of the population gets it (5 billion) and that overwhelmed hospitals give you a 3% mortality overall and you are talking 150 million dead.

R0 on measles is 12-18. I haven't seen a number more than half that on SARS-COV-2. Can you cite?

You are right. I was thinking of Smallpox when I wrote that and mixed it up.

the Wisconsin politician was referring only to the US population and so I was doing the same. But you are right, at a global scale, the deaths that could come with this could be insane. We need to really hope and pray it isn’t that bad.

one of the problems (Much like H1N1) is that we won’t know how truly Bad this is until years later. We don’t actually measure all the sick and those who died. We project it based on a review of the data after the fact. So for now what we hear is only what is being directly measured. It’s surely under-reporting. Eventually we will get a real number. I’m sure over a million people already have this virus right now. Probably many million worldwide.

 

[Matthew J Poes]

What's crazy is that if that figure is based off total population, it isnt and the US is at 327 million, then we're looking at 3-9 million dead.

Not sure how he can say that's "not a big deal".

right but remember the entire country won’t get this. So figure on 30% to 50% being in the range. So 1.5 million to 4.5 million dead. But when I made that comment, I assumed he probably believed the percentage would be even lower so I said 100’000’s just to offer that as a low end possibility. It might not be as bad as we think. But any of these numbers is really bad. Bad enough to overwhelm our systems.

 

[Matthew J Poes]

Ok on a completely unrelated note, I’m working on a new live stream with Gene. Hopefully we can do it this weekend. I’m excited. I think you all will really dig it. It’s a study in room correction with good data. I’m waiting to get feedback from Floyd Toole to confirm my methods and then we will do it.

Hopefully being home will give me more time to finish what I’m working on. Bring you all something to read and watch.

 

[Matthew J Poes]

I think a re-watch of Bill Gates address several years ago is perhaps in order, particularly those upset about current problems with market values.

isn’t it crazy how accurate he was. It really blows my mind. I saw in the news that someone had dug up his prediction and so I went and watched it.

 

[shadyJ]

isn’t it crazy how accurate he was. It really blows my mind. I saw in the news that someone had dug up his prediction and so I went and watched it.

Bill gates for president! And unlike our current president, no one questions that he is an actual billionaire.

 

[Danzilla31]

I think a re-watch of Bill Gates address several years ago is perhaps in order, particularly those upset about current problems with market values.

Damn lovin appreciate that link that's crazy spooky how spot on he is. 3 trillion dollars eh? Well f@$! It I'm going broke then

 

[panteragstk]

right but remember the entire country won’t get this. So figure on 30% to 50% being in the range. So 1.5 million to 4.5 million dead. But when I made that comment, I assumed he probably believed the percentage would be even lower so I said 100’000’s just to offer that as a low end possibility. It might not be as bad as we think. But any of these numbers is really bad. Bad enough to overwhelm our systems.

That's why I said it wasn't an accurate number. Either way, 1-3% is small, but someone put it in a very simple way that I think people need to hear.

"If I gave you 100 Skittles and told you three of them would kill you, you'd probably avoid Skittles."

 

[panteragstk]

I feel like this is important for people to see. I think the average person drastically underestimates what our hospital capacity actually is.

https://www.ahd.com/state_statistics.html

 

[TLS Guy]

The only people I know of who can build that quickly is the military and by that I mean the Army. The National guard is not up to this kind of speed. It's one thing to build it, it's another thing to staff and supply it. More beds is of no help if there isn't enough protective gear, ICU nurses respiratory therapists, and docs. If they call up docs in the reserves to man them what happens to the hospitals where they are working now who need them just as much? I hate to call up retired docs like you since you're in that vulnerable age group. But the call has already gone out in New England.

Dan, I'

The only people I know of who can build that quickly is the military and by that I mean the Army. The National guard is not up to this kind of speed. It's one thing to build it, it's another thing to staff and supply it. More beds is of no help if there isn't enough protective gear, ICU nurses respiratory therapists, and docs. If they call up docs in the reserves to man them what happens to the hospitals where they are working now who need them just as much? I hate to call up retired docs like you since you're in that vulnerable age group. But the call has already gone out in New England.

The UK are building a temporary hospital on a soccer field in London as we speak.

In St. Paul they are converting the old Bethsaida Hospital to a 100 bed ICU. I have no idea how they will staff it. That is an old 140 bed hospital that became a chronic vent unit for patients that could not be weaned. It was closed for issues of poor care. I sent the odd case there and they all did poorly. I badgered and badgered to get staff privileges at our rehab hospital. So I admitted those patients there and had them to go to PT/OT on the vents and got their stamina up. I don't think I failed to get one of them home.

Anyhow I think that is a feasible conversion. We have to get creative. If push comes to shove, I would go back. I'm pretty sure I could still intubate and run a vent, but my vascular access work might, no almost certainly would be ab it rusty. I'm not in the best shape now, but if it was desperation stakes I would go back. We like fireman are called to go towards danger without regard for our safety. We had that example, on the evening news this evening. An ICU doc came down with this virus in Italy, and gave up his chance of getting a ventilator for a patient and died. Now that was true dedication. I regard him as a saint.

 

[Old Onkyo]

I've just been sitting back and listening and trying to learn from many here

But I can't help but feel frustrated at what I feel is by press and the public just panic causing statements that have caused a lot of things to really get blown out of proportion.

Saying this is a pandemic that can be ten times more deadly then anything we've seen in recent history

I just feel statements like this are way to soon to be made we don't know enough about this virus yet and how it's going to react long term

I understand the measures that need to be taken to try and slow it both to keep it from overrunning medical infrastructure and give time for vaccines and herd immunity to develop

But Damn Im tired of all the doomsday scenarios every time I turn on the Damn tv or check the news it's all I hear is about this Damn virus and all these worse case scenarios I'm kind off sick of it to be honest

Let's be cautious and take the correct measures but Damn use our common sense and handle this with some dignity

Sorry guys this is the steam vent so I'm just venting this isn't directed at anyone in particular just needed to get it off my chest

In the meantime I'll continue to practice social distancing watch a lot of movies stay in for awhile since I do work medical and that puts me on the front line so to speak.... And watch my portfolio take a massive f@$!ing hit since everybody including the stock markets are acting like this is the end of the f@$!ing world like something out of Stephen King's the Stand

Sorry guys had to get that off my chest too I'm very empathetic to everyone out there going through this but f@!! Sooner or later see going to have to find a way to move forward the economy can only take so much of this

I guess were do we draw the line how long can cracking down on containment is going to work enough versus watching our economic infrastructure collapse?

And for the record I've always been suspicious of this thing starting in China. It spread so fast in areas where travel related cases weren't the cause. I'm wondering if this has been floating around out there for awhile people mistaking it for flu or other things and China just happened to realize they had something else going on

It may already be put there way more then we suspected especially since the young can be fairly asymptomatic and just spread it everywhere if I understand correctly

Thanks steam vent I needed to get that off my chest

Interesting time we live in, no middle ground, just right or wrong.

I’m a registered Republican and I didn’t vote for trump and I never will. He’s been the worst president of my lifetime. Biden will win by a landslide now, but trump supporters will say otherwise.

can’t ever look up to a leader that plays the blame game. He’s a racist and doesn’t even know why, saying things like those people, or the Chinese virus, or the Kung flu.

needs to stop and I’m ready for my towns shelter in place. I’ll be working from home with my family of 6 and 3 dogs till whenever it gets better. I have food and supplies to last 30 days. Good luck to everyone and god bless.

 

[Old Onkyo]

Welp, Los Angeles County deemed Cannabis Dispensaries as essential business, they will remain open.

 

[Steve81]

I feel like this is important for people to see. I think the average person drastically underestimates what our hospital capacity actually is.

https://www.ahd.com/state_statistics.html

It's not so much a question of absolute capacity as it is available capacity for a specific problem. ~15 years ago, I worked as one of the bed control coordinators for John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek, CA. At the time, it was a ~300 bed facility, and was/is the county's trauma center. IME, there was little to nothing in the way of spare capacity on any given day, and since hospital beds (and their corresponding staff) aren't interchangeable, the job was essentially a delicate juggling act to get every piece to fit as best it could. For example, while there were ~300 slots for patients, there were a grand total of two negative pressure isolation rooms. It's not hard for me to see how things could go sideways with a disease like COVID19 if that situation didn't materially improve in the intervening years.

 

[highfigh]

hah oh man. That isn’t helping. Even if it made me laugh.

I’m sure everyone knows this, but those spikes coming out are what gives it the name corona virus. Corona meaning crown. It looked like a crown under a microscope.

Or the corona of the Sun.

 

[highfigh]

Welp, Los Angeles County deemed Cannabis Dispensaries as essential business, they will remain open.

How will they stop the spread of this with all of the stoners coughing up a lung every time they take a deep breath?

 

[highfigh]

Bill gates for president! And unlike our current president, no one questions that he is an actual billionaire.

If being a billionaire was a criterion for being POTUS, Bloomberg would still be in the race, at the front.

 

[Dan]

Dan, I'


The UK are building a temporary hospital on a soccer field in London as we speak.

In St. Paul they are converting the old Bethsaida Hospital to a 100 bed ICU. I have no idea how they will staff it. That is an old 140 bed hospital that became a chronic vent unit for patients that could not be weaned. It was closed for issues of poor care. I sent the odd case there and they all did poorly. I badgered and badgered to get staff privileges at our rehab hospital. So I admitted those patients there and had them to go to PT/OT on the vents and got their stamina up. I don't think I failed to get one of them home.

Anyhow I think that is a feasible conversion. We have to get creative. If push comes to shove, I would go back. I'm pretty sure I could still intubate and run a vent, but my vascular access work might, no almost certainly would be ab it rusty. I'm not in the best shape now, but if it was desperation stakes I would go back. We like fireman are called to go towards danger without regard for our safety. We had that example, on the evening news this evening. An ICU doc came down with this virus in Italy, and gave up his chance of getting a ventilator for a patient and died. Now that was true dedication. I regard him as a saint.

I too will do whatever I am asked. I haven't intubated since medical school and haven't adjusted a vent since 1988 and even then I just ordered the change, I wouldn.t know how to actually do it on a modern vent. I can hit Lincoln's head on the penny at a depth of 15 cm inside someone with ultrasound. I can easily do central venous access. But I think I'm of better service doing diagnostic imaging and trying to keep up the morale of my residents. Their morale is sagging badly. One has a critical care fiance training at Yale. She can't see him and is naturally worried sick about him.

I'm nearly 60 and diabetic, with sinus issues so I'm as vulnerable as it gets but we do what we must for the patients. I just was trying to say that any increase in capacity involves many different aspects: of infrastructure logistics and manpower. One without the others is a futile and stupid gesture.

 

[BoredSysAdmin]

Some good news for an actual fucken change:

COVID-19 Update: Old drug shows new promise; Younger patients hit hard | MDLinx

Chloroquine shows promise as a treatment for COVID-19.

www.mdlinx.com

French study finds anti-malarial and antibiotic combo could reduce COVID-19 duration | TechCrunch

A new study whose results were published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents has found early evidence that the combination of

techcrunch.com

In other not so great news, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are nearly completely out from drugs wholesalers [this Is insider info] - also feel bad for actual Lupus patients - they are about to have a hard time getting their medications
but Trump [love or hate him] is already on it, one could say grasping for straws, but I don't entirely blame him (this time):

With Minimal Evidence, Trump Asks F.D.A. to Study Malaria Drugs for Coronavirus (Published 2020)

The use of the existing drugs against the new virus is unproven, and some shortages have already been reported.

www.nytimes.com