JerryLove

JerryLove

Audioholic Ninja
I love how you have to resort to [several] snide comments on intelligence. I find people tend to attack with what's most hurtful to themselves (assuming that's a vulnerable spot for others). Have you been picked on often for your lack of intellect? Counseling might be helpful.

Is Oxford good enough for you? Or are you smarter than them too?

In the same way you imply you are smarter than the CDC:

CDC does not recommend the routine use of respirators outside of workplace settings (in the community). Most often, spread of respiratory viruses from person-to-person happens among close contacts (within 6 feet). CDC recommends everyday preventive actions to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, such as avoiding people who are sick, avoiding touching your eyes or nose, and covering your cough or sneeze with a tissue. People who are sick should stay home and not go into crowded public places or visit people in hospitals. Workers who are sick should follow CDC guidelines and stay home when they are sick.

- https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/respirator-use-faq.html

LETS JUST RIP THE NUMBERS STRAIGHT OUT OF A CHINESE STUDY OF HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS AND PEG THAT AS THE ACTUAL DEATH RATE. If you understood the subject, you would know how stupid your post is. If you actually bothered reading the blog post that you posted, you would understand how stupid your post is. Or perhaps to concept is too complicated for you to understand. So yes, no one is saying 2% besides you.
Except the NIH: Long term complications among survivors of infection with SARS-CoV-2 having clinically significant COVID-19 disease are not yet available. The mortality rates for cases globally remain between 1% to 2%.

CDC: Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas.


NEJM: Our findings were more similar to the national official statistics, which showed a rate of death of 3.2% among 51,857 cases of Covid-19 as of February 16, 2020.

WHO: the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate

And yes, these will go down from people who weren't reported, up from people who were reported, have neither died nor recovered, but will die, down from improvements in treatment and up from lack of care due to overwhelmed medical systems. Every source has always said these are estimates.

So, since I've established that someone besides me has said 2% before; you'll be apologizing to me now, yes?
 
M

Mr._Clark

Audioholic Samurai
That's friggin crazy. I woke this morning to local news declaring a state of emergency in Pasco county. They closed 2 schools because of me. I feel really shitty about this but hopefully one day this will be an entertaining story to tell my grandkids.

Good to still see you active on this forum Dave. Please stay safe and give your better half my regards.
[/QUOT
That's friggin crazy. I woke this morning to local news declaring a state of emergency in Pasco county. They closed 2 schools because of me. I feel really shitty about this but hopefully one day this will be an entertaining story to tell my grandkids.

Good to still see you active on this forum Dave. Please stay safe and give your better half my regards.
Gene, realistically you just happened to be the first in your area. There are confirmed cases in my area, and our schools are closed (I'm 100s of miles away). This is happening all over the country. There's just no way it is all your fault.

I found your interview and posts here helpful. I suspect a lot of us will get this sooner or later and your experience with it gives us some idea of what to expect.

And, once you do recover, you'll be Unbreakable compared to the rest of us. You'll be able to go anywhere without fear of catching or spreading it! (yeah, I know that's bit of an overstatement)(you don't look like Bruce Willis)

Just get better, that's the main thing!
 
lovinthehd

lovinthehd

Audioholic Jedi
The percentages of serious issues are just on the high side, no matter what in the end the hindsight may pin the number at....
 
Verdinut

Verdinut

Audioholic Spartan
The percentages of serious issues are just on the high side, no matter what in the end the hindsight may pin the number at....
It seems easier to transmit but I just hope that it won't be as high in fatalities as that with the 2003-4 SARS.
 
lovinthehd

lovinthehd

Audioholic Jedi
It seems easier to transmit but I just hope that it won't be as high in fatalities as that with the 2003-4 SARS.
Don't we all. If systems aren't ready for such it could increase the issues. We'll see if drumphy's reducing such readiness is going to be key. Even if he tests positive, I somehow doubt he'd be honest about results like his weight....but his germophobe thing could keep him safer. Damnit.
 
Swerd

Swerd

Audioholic Warlord
My job has told everyone who can work from home to start doing so next week. My department is not one that can typically work from home, but our boss told us all in a meeting that if we are part of one of the at risk groups to let him know and he will find a way for us to work from home. I have asthma and am prone to respiratory illnesses, so after discussing with my wife we agreed that I should work from home. Spoke with my boss and he agreed, so I am on self quarantine for the time being and he will just have me as working on day shift unless they need me to monitor things remotely during other shifts. I'm glad in a way that this is something I'm able to do, but I will also miss going in to work as I enjoy being there.
It may be sudden, unexpected, and frightening. But it may last only a month or less – we hope. If you think about this way, you'll realize you can do anything for a month. And if it takes another month, what's one month more? Take it in stride.
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
Don't we all. If systems aren't ready for such it could increase the issues. We'll see if drumphy's reducing such readiness is going to be key. Even if he tests positive, I somehow doubt he'd be honest about results like his weight....but his germophobe thing could keep him safer. Damnit.
Trump tested negative...
 
T

Trebdp83

Audioholic Spartan
Negative? I guess they weren’t testing for cocaine.
 
Verdinut

Verdinut

Audioholic Spartan
A bomb can kill a lot of people in one area, but a tiny vicious virus like this one can kill a lot of people around the globe over a long period , if we don't take the situation seriously and if it takes time to find the proper vaccine.
 
lovinthehd

lovinthehd

Audioholic Jedi
A bomb can kill a lot of people in one area, but a tiny vicious virus like this one can kill a lot of people around the globe over a long period , if we don't take the situation seriously and if it takes time to find the proper vaccine.
Easier to be paranoid about bombs and supporting gubmints that avoid health issues!
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
This is my take on where we are now. What is known and not known.

What we do know is that this pandemic is at least 10 times deadlier than any other pandemic certainly in all our life times. It is unusually infectious by air, touch and feces.

It is particularly deadly to the elderly and people with underlying medical conditions, like for instance diabetes.

Above all it has shown a horrifying capacity to overwhelm hospital services, especially ICU units, running them out of resources. It has shown a terrible propensity to run ragged medical staff, infect them and extract a disproportionate mortality on them. This is probably a combination of fatigue and high infectious load of virus.

In Northern Italy it is threatening to wipe out a generation.

Children seem to be spared.

What is uncertain is how badly children can spread the virus with subclinical or mild infections. The case mortality below age 19 years is very low, but not zero.

It is uncertain if the virus can cause prenatal infection, but it probably can.

The real uncertainty is how many subclinical and very mild infections have occurred. What we do not know is that lock downs have caused the ending and reversal of the case incidence curve. We do know that severely restrictive measures work. China at the moment is coming out the other side. They plan widespread screening to see the incidence of antibodies to Covid 19 in the community. If antibody is not present in a large segment of the population there will be another epidemic, and likely a series of them after each episode of restriction of the population. These will likely continue until a vaccine is available in quantities large enough to basically immunize the whole world.

So this is where herd immunity comes in. The best analogy is that this virus has set a nuclear reactor into melt down. Now rods are required to be inserted into the reactor to slow it down and make it safe, otherwise there is a catastrophe. In this analogy people who have been exposed to the virus and developed an immunity by warding it off without getting ill or recovering from an active infection are the "rods" in the reactor. So the more of these rods we have the less dangerous the pandemic and it will come under control

However one thing we do not know yet is how long the immunity to the virus will last. Only time will give the answer to that. Length of immunity to infection is variable. For instance immunity to measles is life long. Immunity to the Noro virus is only six weeks. One thing that worries me is that this Covid 19 is a Coronavirus like the common cold, and immunity to that is short lived. However immunity to Sars to which this virus is closely related is relatively long.

Specifically the school closing is a difficult issue. The biggest argument against it is that it could and probably would reduce the availability of medical personnel and we need all hands on deck. Keeping schools open would likely increase herd immunity. However it is my view that as the horror of this pandemic is revealed close to home, public pressure will demand school closures. The decision not to close schools has been made here in Minnesota. However many states have closed or will close schools, affecting 26 million school children so far.

Lastly we are in totally uncharted waters here. The world is facing by far the greatest crisis of our lifetimes. Epidemiologists, physicians, and politicians have now to make impossibly difficult decisions, without all the data, as this is unfolding in uncharted territory. After the dust settles, and it will, some actions taken will prove in hindsight to have been harmful, some to have no effect and others beneficial. Only time will tell and now, and after, is not time to pass judgement only learn from the experiences gained.

What would really help right now is an antiviral agent that would at least greatly reduce the number of cases that need to go on ventilators, and those needing ventilators and dialysis. 3% of cases on life support require ECMO, which is oxygenating through an artificial external membrane that also usually provides continuous dialysis. That is the absolute top of the mountain of critical care support. The other bad thing about these critically ill patients is that they seem to have to stay on life support for around three weeks most often.

Making these episodes less likely and lethal will require a reordering of the world order in the wake of this. The world is currently constituted in a way the gives an unnecessary and huge opportunity for the creation of novel infectious organisms and enormous encouragement for them to propagate.

Anyhow that is my take on all this for what it is worth.
 
TLS Guy

TLS Guy

Seriously, I have no life.
Panic in my view is now setting in over Europe. Borders are being closed and planes grounded.

UK industry has now been put an a war footing. In what I find a bazaar move, Rolls Royce and the heavy equipment manufacturer JCB have been ordered to make ventilators.
A modern ventilator is a very sophisticated piece of equipment. I will be surprised if any of those will be much use. They have ordered thousands. Germany has ordered 10,000 ventilators from Draegerwerk. This is one year's production for that company.

The question that comes to me, is who is going to manage and run those ventilators? That is a skill. Ventilators set incorrectly, like using too high an inspiratory pressure and or tidal volume will damage the lungs further and worsen the situation. You can't just grab any doc and say run these ventilators in critical situations.

The UK decision to keep schools open is very controversial with the public and pressure mounting for closure.

I have no idea if the US is making arrangements to increase the available ventilators. The attempt though will have to be made. In my view a ventilator shortage as this pandemic gathers in intensity in US is pretty much inevitable.

Here are a couple of front pages.



In hind sight we should have been planning for this eventuality years ago. Now we are caught very much on the hop.
 

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