Coronavirus

[RedCharles]

I have three little kids, and this scares me. That kid's skinny legs, look just like my kid's skinny legs.

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I downloaded this from Hal Turner's site, which I learned about from Zero Hedge comments. Hal Turner appears to be a radio nutjob, but what else could this be? Tell me this isn't Coronavirus.

And from what I've read, the Chinese authorities knock on people's houses everyday, and when they don't get a response, they go in a fetch the bodies.

This is from twitter, some guy figured out the equation the Chinese are using. I downloaded this two days ago. It's been pretty much dead on, which is to say that the Chinese numbers are totally made up.

Lancet, the UK's premiere medical journal, has an article that predicts that there will be 300,000 cases by Feb 6th.

The real number of coronavirus cases is more than 75,000, according to a scientific model that says the outbreak will double in size every 6.4 days

A new scientific model says that on January 25 there were 75,815 infected people in Wuhan alone. At the time the official figure was 761.

www.businessinsider.com

Dr. John Cambell breaks down the Everett Washington case. Guy's disease peaked in severity around ten days. Had to be put on oxygen for four days. Almost 103 F. This information is close to my average death day calculation of the first 41 cases. He was isolated on January 19th, which was 16 days ago, so we should be able to conclude that the Everett man did not get anyone else sick.

I should note that in another case, the Bavarian man, developed symptoms in within 72 hours of infection, was sick for 48 hours, and when back to work the next day, but was still contagious even after symptoms. And he likely infected five other people IIRC, anyway there's 12 cases in Germany now.

 

[Swerd]

The yet-to-be named Wuhan Coronavirus continues to infect, kill, and alarm people. As of 10 Feb 2020, it appears to be:

• Highly contagious, capable of being transmitted before people show any symptoms. In comparison, SARS (2002-03) could only be transmitted after patients showed symptoms.
• Capable of requiring as many as 20% of infected patients get hospital care including respiratory assistance.
• Capable of killing an estimated 2-4% of infected patients. SARS, if I remember, was more lethal, with roughly 10% mortality.
• The total numbers of infected patients and deaths, as presently reported by the Chinese National Health Commission, show the infection is still growing, but at a slower rate. Apparently, the Chinese efforts at locking down the population are responsible for this. But the infection is still spreading beyond Asia, North America, and now into Europe.

I'm trying my best to not sugar-coat this epidemic, nor portray it as the end of the world. The data, all from the Chinese, is the only data we have.

Here is a semi-log plot of total confirmed cases and total deaths as of 10 Feb 2020. Both blue & red curves are clearly leveling out.

If semi-log plots don't mean much to you, here is the same data with non-log vertical axes. It's easy to see that both blue & red curves are still growing, but slower.

And finally, here is a plot showing the % increase in confirmed cases for each day, as compared to the previous day. At first, 16 Jan to 27 Jan, the % increases bounced all over the place, as you would expect with small total numbers of cases. By 28 Jan, the % increase had dropped to about 32%. It continued to drop in a more predictable linear way, to about 6% as of today, 10 Feb 2020. I hope this trend continues until the growth rate goes into negative percentage. Please remember that today's 6% increase still means about 2,500 more infected people than yesterday. Of them, roughly 59 may die.

 

[ellisr63]

A whistle blower in China supposedly came out yesterday and said 1.5 million in China have the disease now. No idea if it is true, but I sure do not believe China to tell the truth either.

Sent from my SM-T830 using Tapatalk

 

[Swerd]

A whistle blower in China supposedly came out yesterday and said 1.5 million in China have the disease now. No idea if it is true, but I sure do not believe China to tell the truth either.

Like I said above, the Chinese data is the only data we have. I can understand if you don't want to believe them, but help convince me (and others) that the Chinese are wrong by showing some other data that paints a different picture.

The graphs are my own, done using Excel, using the Chinese data as reported in Wikipedia. I didn't copy & paste graphs done by someone else.

 

[RedCharles]

A whistle blower in China supposedly came out yesterday and said 1.5 million in China have the disease now. No idea if it is true, but I sure do not believe China to tell the truth either.

Hal Turner, a radio nutjob, was saying that 1.5 million were infected and 100k dead like 10 days ago. Sources inside China.

I believe you are referring to an exiled Chinese Billionaire living in New York City named Guo Wengui. He said that 1.5 million were infected and 50k dead. Sources inside China.

I've read on 4Chan, that the flu phase of the virus only kills the weakest, and that after that, the virus will do something, "whatever it is deep down", and kill 70-85% of the World's Population. And conversations, at the highest levels, of course, are not talking about how to contain it, but what will be left after it.

I've also read on 4Chan that 30 percent of cases are dying from fever alone. That 200-400 pneumonia patients are taken from a hospital every day in Wuhan by the PLA, never to return. And that Party members and the military are receiving a different treatment from regular Chinese and that they are recovering. Quite a bit of Engrish, but it appeared to say that 50% of those infected die.

I've read that there were high sulphur counts in the atmosphere around Wuhan. Some Neckbeards have done some math and have concluded that 15k bodies were incinerated.

There are lots of videos of afflicted pigs being dumped into a massive pit under the hashtag #coronavirus, and I assume that the viewer is supposed to make the connection to people, and the idea that the Chinese are dumping corona victims into mass graves, and maybe incinerating them in those pits? I don't know. I can't keep up with it all.

I've read that North Korean smugglers say that the virus is running rampant in North Korea.

I've read that the virus is airborne. I've read that virus can aerosolize. I've read that the virus is not airborne.

I've read that Trump doomed us all by cutting an Obama program. I've watch Alex Azar explain that Trump eliminated a committee and put HHS secretary in direct command. I've read that Trump cut funding to the CDC by 80 percent. I've read that Trump proposed cutting funding to the CDC by 20 percent in his 2020 budget. I still don't even know if any budget cuts actually took place. Too much propaganda.

I've read that the Everett case is recovering at home. I've read that the Chicago couple is recovering at home. I've read that one of the Wuhan evacuees tested positive for Corona today. I've also read that 318 people have tested negative in the United States, and 68 are still in process.

I've read that the virus doesn't seem to affect kids much, which was also true of SARS (under 12). Perhaps the immune system changes around puberty? I don't know.

I've watched an epidemiologist from Imperial College London say to multiply China's number's by a factor of ten and the West's by four to get a more accurate count.

The Lancet said that cases would double every 6.5 days back in January. At that rate there would have been 300k cases in China by Feb 6th. But it is old data at this point.

Japan admitted that they do not have enough test kits to test everyone on board the cruise ship Yokohama. There are less than 4000 people on board . WTF. How could Japan not have enough test kits? They're the 3rd largest economy in the world.

Some UK citizen got it in Singapore and infected half a dozen people before showing symptoms. And the WHO leader, whatever his name is, said he worries we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg, and that we're on the cusp of an epidemic in Europe. This is unusual for him.

A WHO team is going to China now. Hopefully, they will be able to cut through all the confusion and get to the information the world needs to fight this thing. There's a Canadian leading, forget his name, he's been with the WHO since 1992, and led the WHO's response to Ebola in West Africa recently. And hey, gotta say, he looked real smart.

The official Chinese numbers are doing what Zhong Nashin said they would do. Even if the Chinese numbers are not accurate, they can be read as Chinese propaganda, which is to say, China is trying to tell the its people and the world that their containment and isolation strategy is working. If China sends its people back to work, then they believe they have it contained. If they do not send their people back to work, then they do not actually believe they have it contained.

Africa just recently got some test kits, which is why there are no confirmed cases in Africa yet. There are typically 1500 people arriving from China into Ethiopia each day. People forget that there are huge Chinese infrastructure projects being built around the world as part of China's "One Belt, One Road" neo-imperialist program. I expect that Coronavirus will run the continent.

Anyone anti-China will say that more are infected or dead to sow distrust between the Chinese people and their government and between the world and the Chinese government. Also, if the idea that the virus originated in a Chinese lab and was released by accident takes hold, it will also cause a rift between the Chinese government and everyone. And it could be true that China's numbers are false, and it could be true that it came from a lab. But speaking from a political standpoint, it only matters what most people will believe. For instance, lots of Chinese people believe that SARS was invented by the US to kill Chinese people, there's whole books about it. In the end, even if there are 50k dead, who can prove it?

Investors obviously believe that this crisis will pass; the DOW already back to where it was before human to human transmission was admitted by the Chinese government. JP Morgan believes that this will all be over before Q2. Trump has said that the warmer weather in April will aid efforts to contain the virus.

Personally, I just don't know, and I have been obsessing over this everyday for hours and hours, and exploring every avenue. The videos coming out of China show that people are desperate. Just search twitter #coronavirus and you'll see mass fumigation efforts, cars ramming road blocks, people hanging themselves, apartments being barred so that only food can get through, whole apartment buildings being welded shut, a man falling 100 feet to his death while trying to reach another apartment via the balcony, people being rounded up against their will, patients practicing tai chi, a cat wearing a facemask, people losing their minds to cabin fever, people suddenly collapsing and bloodying their faces on the concrete, and that's just a sample. There is a lot of suffering going on in China right now.

I've spent 700 bucks so far preparing. Food. Masks. Bleach. Etc. I've been running everyday. I haven't been eating out. I've lost seven pounds since January 24th. But I do feel calmer than a few days ago. And that may not just be the numbers coming out of China. It probably has to do with the fact that my Dad's cancer surgery went well; he's doing so much better that I can actually hold a real conversation with him now. To put it simply, I've got my Dad back.

 

[TLS Guy]

Red Charles I think you have read too much.

Yes, data from China is probably unreliable, that may be intentional or otherwise. Chaotic situations are that, chaotic. There are troubling development though with the Chinese government wanting to put economic salvation over public health prudence.

Brave Chinese physicians have illegally got accurate case histories of 237 cases including course, lab data actual X-rays, and CT scans to colleagues out of China. These are now widely available in leading medical journals. It is a serious illness to some.

What we know.

Of hospitalized patients 17% need ICU care. Of that 17% about half can be managed with non invasive respiratory support, and the other half need invasive support. 3% of the later had to be switched to ECMO, which is exptracorporeal membrane oxygenation, usually combined with continuous dialysis. Few hospitals are able to provide this.

The over all mortality in this initial series was just under 5%. However now that ICU services are inundated the mortality of hospitalized cases is now 20%. As I feared as ICU care becomes unavailable then those requiring it move to the mortality column.

Now there has been a serious incident of an asymptomatic super spreader. A UK business man attended a conference in Singapore. He flew to France and stayed in a ski chalet owned by two British Doctors. Two people became ill in France The doctors returned to work in Brighton Sussex and became ill exposing patients and others. The super spreader is isolated in a London hospital. This situation is obviously a nightmare.

I don't know where the UK government got their figures, but they say that of people who get ill from coronavirus only 20 to 30% need to be admitted to hospital. So lets say 25%. That is a lot of ill people as estimates, and I stress estimates, are that 75% of the population will actually become ill from the virus in a pandemic.

The UK government have issued a clear an imminent warning over this and given the police draconian powers. This includes mandatory and rapid cremations of the dead..

Now a lot of this is speculations are there are a lot of unknowns. The WHO has convened an urgent conference of experts to classify what is known and unknown and what needs to be known pretty quickly.

One thing is clear that this started in a wet illegal market. Countries that do not really clamp down on this need to have permanent and total embargo. The evidence is overwhelming they are a clear and present danger. This disaster must be the last to come out of one of these markets. You don't need any tin foil bio warfare stuff to explain what happened here. That is already pretty clear.

 

[RedCharles]

Everything you said is accurate except for the origin. It is not clear that this started in the market. 13 out of the first 41 patients had no connection to the Huanan Seafood Market. Daniel Lucy of Georgetown University said that the virus went into that market before it came out. The virus was identical in these patients, which indicates a single origin, and that undermines the theory of a natural zoonotic infection; logically, a flock of bats or pack of anteaters should have this disease, and there should be multiple clusters of NCoV and multiple genetic variances of NCOV in the first 41 patients.

The Chinese government cleaned the seafood market out; scientists should have been testing everything in the market for Coronavirus. To put it another way, why would cops bleach the murder scene?

But none of the above means it's a bioweapon. For instance, this could have been a failed SARS vaccine. It could also be just something mother nature cooked up. We just don't know yet.

 

[Swerd]

Everything you said is accurate except for the origin. It is not clear that this started in the market. 13 out of the first 41 patients had no connection to the Huanan Seafood Market. Daniel Lucy of Georgetown University said that the virus went into that market before it came out. The virus was identical in these patients, which indicates a single origin, and that undermines the theory of a natural zoonotic infection; logically, a flock of bats or pack of anteaters should have this disease, and there should be multiple clusters of NCoV and multiple genetic variances of NCOV in the first 41 patients.

That news, published in Science (a highly reputable journal) as a report by a staff writer, is interesting. Thanks for mentioning it. Here's the link.

The [Lancet] paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. “That’s a big number, 13, with no link,” says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.​

​

Lucey says if the new data are accurate, the first human infections must have occurred in November 2019—if not earlier—because there is an incubation time between infection and symptoms surfacing. If so, the virus possibly spread silently between people in Wuhan—and perhaps elsewhere—before the cluster of cases from the city’s now-infamous Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was discovered in late December. “The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace,” Lucey asserts.​

The Chinese government cleaned the seafood market out; scientists should have been testing everything in the market for Coronavirus. To put it another way, why would cops bleach the murder scene?

The Chinese cleaned the market out because they believed it was an active medical threat, not a murder scene where the evidence itself was harmless.

But none of the above means it's a bioweapon. For instance, this could have been a failed SARS vaccine. It could also be just something mother nature cooked up. We just don't know yet.

We clearly don't know yet – and we may never know for certain. Any mention of this virus as a bioweapon run amok, is completely without evidence to support it. Despite your fears, don't go there.

I was very glad to read the news about your dad's surgery. I hope he recovers from the surgery quickly.

 

[Midwesthonky]

Like I said above, the Chinese data is the only data we have. I can understand if you don't want to believe them, but help convince me (and others) that the Chinese are wrong by showing some other data that paints a different picture.

The graphs are my own, done using Excel, using the Chinese data as reported in Wikipedia. I didn't copy & paste graphs done by someone else.

It's the only data we have so it's what we have to work with. Good work on running the data. I've been too lazy to do what you have done. The numbers do indicate the infection rate is slowing and I'll take that as good news. The quarantine efforts appear to be working. Although I wouldn't want to be stuck on a cruise ship with it as I suspect that is making the exposure risk worse. But I'm not a medical professional, I just play doctor with my spouse.

I agree there are is fearmongering going on. To be expected in this day and age. As you said, the real indicator will be when the Chinese government allows everyone to go back to work. But I guarantee a lot of international organizations will be looking at their supply chain and asking what they can do to lessen future risks. Add this on top of the trade war with the Trumpenator and more companies will look to spread the risk around more.

 

[mtrycrafts]

... To put it another way, why would cops bleach the murder scene?
...

My mind is having a field day with this.

 

[RedCharles]

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Downloaded from Chinese speaking twitter thread.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1227258119832600579

This is what scares me the most. Convince me this isn't real. This is the second video I've seen of dead children.

Just talked to a guy on twitter about the video I just shared, and he wrote with good Engrish, and he said that Chinese media are saying that the elderly and children are most at risk. Which is not what I've read in English publications.

Why are children 'missing' from coronavirus outbreak cases?

So far, it seems that youth protects against the worst effects of 2019-nCoV.

www.livescience.com

 

[panteragstk]

Just talked to a guy on twitter about the video I just shared, and he wrote with good Engrish, and he said that Chinese media are saying that the elderly and children are most at risk.

Isn't that true of pretty much any virus? That and people with compromised immune systems due to cancer treatments, or illness.

 

[Out-Of-Phase]

Red, if Hal Turner is a 'nutjob' then why do you listen?

You are contributing to his ratings. Find something constructive to do.

 

[Midwesthonky]

Well, the Chinese F1 race has been officially postponed with no re-scheduled date set. It may not get run this year due to the way the schedule is configured. Not a really good place to set it in the schedule.

 

[RedCharles]

Someone mentioned Hal Turner in a link on Zerohedge. I investigated. I've never listened to his radio show, and for that matter, I can't stand political radio of any kind. It's miserably bloated.

I've stopped reading the comments on ZH. They're idiots.

ZeroHedge itself is just borderline enough for me read. Zerohedge is offering faster reporting than the NYT and WSJ. And it's quite raw. Many spelling errors. They're definitely bears; it's their schtick. Zerohedge was founded just after the 2008 crash; it's purpose seems to be to predict the next big market crash before it happens. They have been steadily wrong for the last 11 years. Quite pessimistic.

I'm also reading Global Times. I'm also watching Daniel Dumbrill. I'm also reading NYT and WSJ. I'm also reading 4Chan. I'm trying to find a decent German paper too. It's a dialectical approach to learning. "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."

My next area of query is looking into what the NYT was publishing in 1918-1919 about Spanish Flu, but I haven't had time. I want to compare the tone of then and now.

I'm trying to understand as much as possible in order to predict 1st, 2nd, 3rd order effects so that I can make better decisions now.

 

[RedCharles]

-397 current infections. According to China, the disease has reached an inflection point; daily dead and recovered now outnumber new cases.

新冠病毒最新实时疫情地图_丁香园

丁香园、丁香医生整合各权威渠道发布的官方数据，通过疫情地图直观展示，持续更新最新的新型冠状病毒肺炎的实时疫情动态。

ncov.dxy.cn

Last week 97.5% of all deaths have occurred in the Hubei province. Today, 95 percent of all deaths have occurred in the Hubei province.

I talked with a former missionary today. He lived in China in the 80s, 90s and 2000s. He's a runner, and he told me how he would go for a run in China and cough up black soot afterwards. Obviously, air pollution in China is not as bad as it was, although they are still number one, world leader. But it really got me thinking. Did some research. 70 percent of Chinese men smoke (2015). And in many Chinese cities, people are breathing in the equivalent of 4 or 5 cigarettes a day. Wuhan is more polluted than average, and it sits in a valley.

Neckbeards have contended that there may be a racial, genetic factor here that is making everyone with an epicanthic fold more mortally vulnerable to Coronavirus. Possible, but unproven, and it's worth noting that a lifetime of severe air pollution would accomplish the same vulnerability in a large population.

Also, the death rate outside of China is a little less than 1/2 percent.
The death rate in China, but outside of Hubei is a little more than 1/2 percent.
The death rate in Hubei is currently over 3 percent.
I chalk up these differences to adequate medical care.

In Germany, 12 have recovered out of 16. Zero deaths.
In the UK, 8 have recovered out 9. Zero deaths.
In Spain, 2 have recovered out of 2. Zero deaths.
In Australia, 10 have recovered out of 15. Zero deaths.
In the US, only 3 have recovered out of 29. Zero deaths. Why so few recovered?
In Japan, only 13 have recovered out of 74. One death. Why the difference?

It is my strong belief that the 40,000 family dinner potluck that took place on January 18th super accelerated the rate of infection in Wuhan. I $hit you not. People prepared food and shared it. Food from home. Finger food. 40,000 familes has got to be at least 120,000 people minimum. Probably passed a few bags chips around. Why not? What could go wrong? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/health/virus-corona.html

In the same vein, I also strongly believe that the disease was spreading on the Diamond Princess through food rather than ventilation.

In sum, I don't think that every city in the world is "weeks behind Wuhan". I think China's population is uniquely vulnerable to respiratory diseases due to pollution, and that Wuhan accelerated the spread of the disease by allowing a corona potluck to take place. I think we'll know if we're in for the long haul by the first week of March.

 

[killdozzer]

At the risk of getting a few of you mad, I'll state that I think there's no story to Corona virus AT ALL (unless you'd have a thread like this following every seasonal flu, then every flu would be a story). In other words; it is slightly less of a story than a seasonal flu.

The reason I'm stating this, however, is NOT to get someone mad, but to have it here in written so that I can put my "news strainer", so to speak, to test - my personal filter of stories presented daily when, in 3-4 months it becomes dormant and unusable for fueling daily anxiety.

I'm not saying I'm right, but this is one case where I certainly wish it would be so. By everything I read so far, this is blown out of proportions.

I'm also not saying it's made up (and am highly allergic to conspiracy fad), but I am saying;
is it a flu: yes - is it the worst or even up there: no
is it mortal: yes - same again, is it of highest mortality or even up there: no
is it contagious: yes... and so on

Oh, and one more thing, it goes without saying that eating bats had nothing to do with it.

 

[Midwesthonky]

Oh, and one more thing, it goes without saying that eating bats had nothing to do with it.

Yeah! Ozzy ate bats and look at how well he's doing...oh...wait...um... Ozzy ate bats that were doing heavy amounts of drugs and that's why! Yeah, that's it!

 

[RedCharles]

4 months it becomes dormant and unusable for fueling daily anxiety.

The news coverage of SARS, Avian Flu, Swine Flu and Ebola, is the story of the boy who cried wolf. For the last twenty years every threatening disease has been "lousy". Most people, unless they're a bit neurotic, are not overly concerned because of past experience. Every new disease fear has turned out to be a dud, why would this one be any different.

No one alive remembers Spanish Flu, and therefore a pandemic that kills millions is unthinkable. But it is possible that this disease will be "the big one".

In the beginning of World War II, the British newspapers called it the phony war. Many believed that it would not turn into another World War. We may be in the phony war stage.

Or this may be a case of social media unduly creating fear about a new disease in China. The WSJ and NYT have not been creating fear with their coverage. The fear is really being driven by social media. Even Alex Jones' coverage of this is tame compared to what people are saying on Twitter.

I think we'll know where we stand the first week of March.

 

[killdozzer]

The news coverage of SARS, Avian Flu, Swine Flu and Ebola, is the story of the boy who cried wolf. For the last twenty years every threatening disease has been "lousy". Most people, unless they're a bit neurotic, are not overly concerned because of past experience. Every new disease fear has turned out to be a dud, why would this one be any different.

No one alive remembers Spanish Flu, and therefore a pandemic that kills millions is unthinkable. But it is possible that this disease will be "the big one".

In the beginning of World War II, the British newspapers called it the phony war. Many believed that it would not turn into another World War. We may be in the phony war stage.

Or this may be a case of social media unduly creating fear about a new disease in China. The WSJ and NYT have not been creating fear with their coverage. The fear is really being driven by social media. Even Alex Jones' coverage of this is tame compared to what people are saying on Twitter.

I think we'll know where we stand the first week of March.

At this point in time stats from the same reliable sources still say more dead from seasonal flu. Good ol' Schrödinger says we still don't know are the numbers from China real or not so they are both real and not. We don't act on that.

True, in hindsight we see the boy who cried, but as we're walking backwards into the future as dear gentlemen Guatari and Deleuze say, we're not in a position to conclude on what's coming based on what we've seen so far.

Again, I'm not boldly stating I'm right. I just want to see whether I'm right. Although I think we'll need more than the first week of March.