20% Tax on Items from Mexico to pay for wall...

[Rickster71]

People, people, people…



I expected you to administer the same sane and logical thinking you obviously possess when it comes to electronics and apply that to other aspects of your life.

The first thing I did was look at the date you joined AH.
I thought to myself, He must be new here.

 

[Irvrobinson]

People, people, people…

Snipped lots of emotion and rhetoric.

Not taking your meds recently, Killdozzer? ;-)

I'm just curious... have you ever worked for a manufacturing company, and actually seen how the decision-making processes work for where to do manufacturing and R&D? Even at just one company?

 

[Irvrobinson]

You all shouldn't keep asking how Trump happened. There's not a thing about your view of economy that man might honestly hate.

I don't have to ask. I think I know.

 

[KEW]

Here's an interesting Bloomberg article on that subject for those interested:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-us-vs-china-economy/

It is an absurd assumption that China will maintain a 6.5% rate and Bloomberg knows better! They do use words like "if" and "could", but modeling steady growth for a country rising out of third world status is about the same as taking my wage increases as I went from 14 to 23 years old and projecting my future earning based on that level of growth!

Here is a collection of graphs of China's GDP growth from several sources who are more worried about accuracy and make some effort to apply economic realities to their projections:
https://knoema.com/loqqwx/china-gdp-growth-forecast-2015-2020-and-up-to-2060-data-and-charts

And here is a good story (linked in teh article you linked) from Bloomberg showing the kind of barriers China is beginning to have to confront as their economy grows:
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-12/trump-s-beijing-bashing-misses-china-s-own-rust-belt-upheaval

 

[shadyJ]

China's growth can not continue indefinitely. As their middle class grows, demand will grow, cost will rise, and and so growth will shrink. There isn't enough resources in the world for all Chinese to have a middle class lifestyle.

 

[lovinthehd]

Killdozzer's perspective may be a bit different....he's from Zagreb.

 

[Rickster71]

It is an absurd assumption.............

And you know this because of first hand knowledge?... or because you read the news?

Talk about absurd assumptions...... One thing I've learned from this past election cycle, was how wrong the 'News' (or the propaganda that passes for news) and how wrong the expert polls were.

 

[highfigh]

Yes BS applies equally to his previous experience but now he is affecting a country, not just his own bottom line. Can't just say and do whatever he wants to.

But other POTUS could and did? Mr "I have a pen and a phone" commuted the sentences of people who should have stayed in prison and created a lot of animosity with his attitudes on many topics.

Government can't be run using spasm- Obama ran on making big changes to the country and you can't make sweeping changes to a country of 325 million people over this much land mass unless you're a dictator and the people are completely docile or have been waiting to go in that direction. He didn't care that not all were in favor of what he did. Trump has made changes that people hate, but I think he's doing this because he's responding to the people who think and feel that this country's open borders are making us unsafe and he doesn't want the problems here that Germany, France and other countries have.

Many Mayors are saying their cities are "sanctuary cities" and they won't obey Federal laws. I think the laws should be obeyed and they're pushing their luck. MKE just captured 16 illegals, most of who had serious crimes in their background and several had already been deported at least once. We have had others who were released and within only a few hours, they killed someone.

How much money is sent out of the US, from immigrants (legal AND illegal) to family members? It's a very large amount. Mexico receives more from foreign workers than from oil exports, according to this article from CNN-

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/01/news/economy/mexico-peso-money-transfer-trump-remittance/

The arguments I continue to see about illegals is "they do work nobody else wants to", "they help our economy" and then, defenders of illegals discount the cost of the bad ones. The total sent to foreign countries (not only Mexico) is over $100B annually, and not much returns- how does that help the US economy? In a little more than seven years, the Stimulus could have been paid for, IN CASH!

 

[highfigh]

FIRE YOUR ECONOMISTS!

It is YOU THE PEOPLE!! You are the power behind politics. Economists can either do what you ask them or find another job (preferably nowhere near high finance).

When you miss a couple of days at work your employer is not asking for arguments, explanations or holy excel spread sheets. YOU’RE fired.

Well!?!? When will you remember that you’re the employers of your economists? Fire the pricks!

You want domestic production and a good standard of living. TELL your economists to GO AND GET IT! And if they can’t, then the economy might not be the line of work they’re cut out for. They can either go home and do their f….. homework or they can move out of the way and let someone capable do it. You DON’T need empty explanations! Everyone could do their job perfectly if he gets to both describe what the job is and write his own reviews. F... that! "I pay you to make my life better and I want domestic production!!! Can you do it? A simple yes or no should suffice!"

In light of the fact that economists can never agree on anything, what should we replace them with?

People conflate "better" with 'more'- at what point, does someone have 'enough'? Wages can't keep rising without cost of goods hitting unaffordable prices. and this is what the US has caused. Post WWII, the US had a huge boom in just about every aspect of the economy and workers joined unions in many types of work. They went on strike when they didn't get what they wanted and when they did, prices increased but union workers usually don't see a correlation between the two but once the prices affect them to the point where they can't afford to buy the thinks that lets them keep up with others, they want more. ALWAYS more.

My dad worked for a company that went on strike not long after he started. I didn't win any points when I asked how much he made while on strike and pointed out that working through the negotiations paid better and that if the strike costs the company enough, they might close that location. He would invite friends from work to our house and a couple of them had a bumper sticker with 'Buy Union' on their foreign-made vehicle. I didn't win any points for pointing out this hypocricy but honestly, I didn't care- I was concerned with making my point.

 

[GO-NAD!]

20% tax on Canadian maple syrup!!

What about those car plants up in Canada? Funny how he has said squat about them. No, I am not picking on Canada either.

I think it's because we have similar environmental and labour standards to the US, so we are being perceived as not having an unfair advantage. Besides, while I don't know if it's the same under NAFTA, under the old "Auto Pact" between Canada and the US, the big three auto makers agreed to produce the same number of vehicles in Canada as were sold here. Models produced here could end up being sold in the US and vice versa - as long as the numbers evened out.

I don't know how it's all going to work out in the long run, but I get the impression that gut instinct and knee jerk reactions - as well as pandering to a certain demographic - are guiding policy, leading to simplistic solutions to complex issues. I'm puzzled that someone with such extensive business experience sees everything in black and white, with no room for grey.

Policy is being implemented as if in a vacuum, where there are no consequences. POTUS has to remember - other countries get a vote, too. For example, if tariffs were applied to Canadian-made speakers, there's nothing to stop our government from imposing a similar tariff on US-made speakers. It could turn into a trade arms race that nobody wins. If memory serves, one of the Hoover administration policies that exacerbated the great depression was clamping down on imports. The resultant downturn in international trade made things worse (I don't think the US was the only country to enact such measures, either).

 

[lovinthehd]

Some of the later trade agreements are more than about simple tariff incentives, the TPP particularly. I hated NAFTA as a Customs broker, unbelievable amounts of minutiae involved for materials/labor/origins, but I suspect at this point we'd be shooting our consumer selves in the foot with violating it willy nilly as the current administration throws crap on the wall to see what sticks....

 

[shadyJ]

How much money is sent out of the US, from immigrants (legal AND illegal) to family members? It's a very large amount. Mexico receives more from foreign workers than from oil exports, according to this article from CNN-

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/01/news/economy/mexico-peso-money-transfer-trump-remittance/

The arguments I continue to see about illegals is "they do work nobody else wants to", "they help our economy" and then, defenders of illegals discount the cost of the bad ones. The total sent to foreign countries (not only Mexico) is over $100B annually, and not much returns- how does that help the US economy? In a little more than seven years, the Stimulus could have been paid for, IN CASH!

Sending dollars abroad has its upsides. The dollar is essentially the world's reserve currency, since it is so widely used. This makes it much stronger than other currencies. If it wasn't so prevalent, it wouldn't be worth as much. This is hugely advantageous to Americans, who are natively paid in dollars and do business in dollars without having to do any conversion and without having to deal with the politics of using the dollar vs the domestic currency. One of the problems of the policies that president orange caligula is advocating is that they will promote inflation. This hurts the worldwide users of the dollar, which is still further bad for the dollar because they have the option of using other currencies. It would be very bad for the dollar and for American business if the Euro became the world's reserve currency.

A MUCH worse problem than US workers sending money abroad to family is US companies stashing 2.5 trillion dollars overseas to dodge taxes. I don't see Trump or any Republican complaining about that, in fact, everything they have said points to making that easier. Money transfers to family in Mexico at least gets taxed first, and it gets a lot more economic circulation thereby promoting the strength of the dollar.

Also you enormously overstate any radical action that Obama had taken when in office. His most dramatic move was the affordable care act, which wasn't exactly Mao's 5 year plan. Keep in mind that the Republicans could repeal it at any time, but haven't done so, even though their congressional majority tried to do so something like 50 or 60 times when Obama was on office. All we saw under Obama is steady economic growth and an even hand on the wheel. That is changing.

 

[KEW]

And you know this because of first hand knowledge?... or because you read the news?

Maybe I can claim first hand knowledge, but "neither" may be more appropriate. It is a simple principle of economics/life that is transferable to several scenarios.

If you look at stocks, every year you will find penny stocks that have astronomical (500% plus) growth rates (mainly because they are starting so low), but if you look to stocks of large mature companies, you will never see that kind of growth (unless you go back to their early years when they were fledgling companies).

It is common sense that any entity of intelligence (be it an animal, an individual, a business, or a country) will go after the "low-hanging fruit" first and has to expend more energy once they have already taken advantage of the easy opportunities.

There is also a substantial array of drags on profit that occur as the economy improves and people expect a higher standard of living.

Understand that unless they "screw the pooch" China should eventually have the largest GDP of the world. This has been the prediction since I was in elementary school (1970). I am not arguing that it won't happen, just that it is not going to happen at a 6.5% vs 2% rate.

Also understand that I have been consistent in saying that I am not upset about there being some restriction in trade. I do not believe it is in the best interest of our country to have wide open trade with economies and human values so disparate as China's or Mexico's. IMHO, there should be some drag on foreign operations of US companies which would allow companies who want to employ US citizens to compete with those that move operations out of the country.

 

[KEW]

... an even hand on the wheel.

That is my biggest concern with Trump. It seems he is prone to act on impulse, especially when his ego is threatened!

 

[Irvrobinson]

A MUCH worse problem than US workers sending money abroad to family is US companies stashing 2.5 trillion dollars overseas to dodge taxes. I don't see Trump or any Republican complaining about that, in fact, everything they have said points to making that easier. Money transfers to family in Mexico at least gets taxed first, and it gets a lot more economic circulation thereby promoting the strength of the dollar.

Also you enormously overstate any radical action that Obama had taken when in office. His most dramatic move was the affordable care act, which wasn't exactly Mao's 5 year plan. Keep in mind that the Republicans could repeal it at any time, but haven't done so, even though their congressional majority tried to do so something like 50 or 60 times when Obama was on office. All we saw under Obama is steady economic growth and an even hand on the wheel. That is changing.

I agree about US corporate cash overseas. I say tax it at a zero rate and let corporations repatriate it. Of course, it's really here anyway, sitting as most of it is in US banks and other financial institutions, holding down US interest rates, which increases consumer debt and is a disincentive to savings. So let's just do it. Sometimes I wish there was a hell for people who invent tax policies.

As for Obama having an even hand on the wheel on supporting economic growth, he's done no such thing. From my perspective, all he's done is raise my taxes a lot, waste a lot of money on health care subsidies very few people like, blocked economic development, put in place massive over-regulation of pretty much everything, and grew the bureaucracy in DC. Economic growth happened in spite of Obama. He screwed up NASA, screwed up military spending even worse, screwed up government R&D spending, and his tax policies are malarky. Good riddance. Too bad we have to get Trump instead, who is about as consistent as a bad random number generator.

 

[shadyJ]

As for Obama having an even hand on the wheel on supporting economic growth, he's done no such thing. From my perspective, all he's done is raise my taxes a lot, waste a lot of money on health care subsidies very few people like, blocked economic development, put in place massive over-regulation of pretty much everything, and grew the bureaucracy in DC. Economic growth happened in spite of Obama. He screwed up NASA, screwed up military spending even worse, screwed up government R&D spending, and his tax policies are malarky. Good riddance. Too bad we have to get Trump instead, who is about as consistent as a bad random number generator.

I don't agree with a lot of this. Remember that he had to deal with a Republican congress, and it is they who have to pass tax policy. I am not a big fan of the affordable care act, however I am not unhealthy, so I don't benefit from it as much. It turns out that poor and lower middle class people get sick too, and they would be the people most benefited from the affordable care act. I am sure Obama would have preferred better solutions, but that is the best that could occur with the congress he had, and it is better than not having been passed. I don't think he screwed up NASA. I also don't know why yo say he screws up government R&D or military spending.

By the way, a bad random number generator would technically be less than random. If Trump were random, then at least some of the things he would do would be beneficial, but so far not a single thing he has done has been for any good. He is not random, he is consistently bad.

 

[lovinthehd]

But other POTUS could and did? Mr "I have a pen and a phone" commuted the sentences of people who should have stayed in prison and created a lot of animosity with his attitudes on many topics.

Government can't be run using spasm- Obama ran on making big changes to the country and you can't make sweeping changes to a country of 325 million people over this much land mass unless you're a dictator and the people are completely docile or have been waiting to go in that direction. He didn't care that not all were in favor of what he did. Trump has made changes that people hate, but I think he's doing this because he's responding to the people who think and feel that this country's open borders are making us unsafe and he doesn't want the problems here that Germany, France and other countries have.

Many Mayors are saying their cities are "sanctuary cities" and they won't obey Federal laws. I think the laws should be obeyed and they're pushing their luck. MKE just captured 16 illegals, most of who had serious crimes in their background and several had already been deported at least once. We have had others who were released and within only a few hours, they killed someone.

How much money is sent out of the US, from immigrants (legal AND illegal) to family members? It's a very large amount. Mexico receives more from foreign workers than from oil exports, according to this article from CNN-

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/01/news/economy/mexico-peso-money-transfer-trump-remittance/

The arguments I continue to see about illegals is "they do work nobody else wants to", "they help our economy" and then, defenders of illegals discount the cost of the bad ones. The total sent to foreign countries (not only Mexico) is over $100B annually, and not much returns- how does that help the US economy? In a little more than seven years, the Stimulus could have been paid for, IN CASH!

George W Bush had quite a list of pardons, too, so have others. Obama had a lot of drug offenders but did nothing really to stop the silly war on drugs, a true waste of American resources. Obama made what huge changes? Your taxes went up how much?

 

[Touareg]

Watching this unfold from Canada had been very interesting for me to see. I'm interested to see if there are import tarifs imposed on goods from China... Now that would be a whole other chapter.

In the meantime, I'll continue to drink my bourbon until it's 20% more expensive and switch back to Canadian whisky!

Cheers eh!

A from Canada.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Irvrobinson]

I don't agree with a lot of this. Remember that he had to deal with a Republican congress, and it is they who have to pass tax policy. I am not a big fan of the affordable care act, however I am not unhealthy, so I don't benefit from it as much. It turns out that poor and lower middle class people get sick too, and they would be the people most benefited from the affordable care act. I am sure Obama would have preferred better solutions, but that is the best that could occur with the congress he had, and it is better than not having been passed. I don't think he screwed up NASA. I also don't know why yo say he screws up government R&D or military spending.

By the way, a bad random number generator would technically be less than random. If Trump were random, then at least some of the things he would do would be beneficial, but so far not a single thing he has done has been for any good. He is not random, he is consistently bad.

I know a lot about random number generators, and bad ones are not random enough. Trump is like that; frustratingly semi-random, and consistent when you don't want him to be.

NASA is lost. No strategy or vision or compelling mission.

Military spending has been incredibly wasteful. No vision or leadership or focus on efficiency here. At least Trump is taking a crude, silly whack at it.

Government R&D is screwed up too. We lost our lead in supercomputing, we do too little with physics, advanced power generation, power distribution, weather forecasting, and astronomy. I haven't been proud of us in a long time, with both parties. I hoping President Twitter comes to his senses, because he shows some potential.

 

[lovinthehd]

It's funny having watched during my career the whole shift from all the communist countries being on column 2 tariff status in the US to almost all on column 1 now, some even being able to achieve duty free status. Cuba and N.Korea were the only remaining column 2 countries last I checked. Start here and check out the special programs out there.