I Am a Ukrainian

[haraldo]

Interestingly a treaty signed in 1994, by the US & Britain, could pull both countries into a war to protect Ukraine if President Putin's troops cross into the country. Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma, the then-rulers of the USA, UK, Russia and Ukraine, agreed to The Budapest Memorandum, as part of the denuclearization of the former Soviet republics, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Technically it means that if Russia invades the Ukraine, the signatories are honor bound to come Ukraine's defense. The operative word here being "technically". Keep in mind though that the self-defense pact/treaty signed by England, France & Poland in 1939 officially began WWII with a similar military treaty, so there is always the slim possibility that the West will come to Ukraine's defense but if the recent dustup between Russia vs. Georgia is a sign of things to come, it does not bode well for your countrymen. I wish you and your family well.

Great read on the Crimea, if you're interested.
To understand Crimea, take a look back at its complicated history

The 1994 Budapesht treaty states that US, UK and Russia should respect Ukraine, the borders, the territory, and independence of country and so on... as far as I understand and read this treaty, it does not proide commitments for the above mentioned countries to protect Ukraine, the commitment that is stated is to bring any potential cases into UN security Council, which is already done.....

Budapest Memorandums on Security Assurances, 1994 - Council on Foreign Relations

 

[Ponzio]

The 1994 Budapesht treaty states that US, UK and Russia should respect Ukraine, the borders, the territory, and independence of country and so on... as far as I understand and read this treaty, it does not proide commitments for the above mentioned countries to protect Ukraine, the commitment that is stated is to bring any potential cases into UN security Council, which is already done.....

... and provide material assistance to Ukraine if "Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression" ... or that's how I read it. Thanks for the link below.

Budapest Memorandums on Security Assurances, 1994 - Council on Foreign Relations

Heraldo ... I've read where the Ukrainian naval commander defected to the Russians and the Ukrainian army has been ordered to mobilize. Do you feel or should I say, do the Ukrainian people feel strongly enough about the invasion & takeover of the Crimea to go to war with Russia over it? My understanding is that the eastern part of Ukraine is pro-Russian and is a bit alarmed at what is going on Kiev. Could this possibly lead to a civil war in you country?

 

[haraldo]

... and provide material assistance to Ukraine if "Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression" ... or that's how I read it. Thanks for the link below.

Thx mate !!!!

Heraldo ... I've read where the Ukrainian naval commander defected to the Russians and the Ukrainian army has been ordered to mobilize. Do you feel or should I say, do the Ukrainian people feel strongly enough about the invasion & takeover of the Crimea to go to war with Russia over it? My understanding is that the eastern part of Ukraine is pro-Russian and is a bit alarmed at what is going on Kiev. Could this possibly lead to a civil war in you country?

From what I heard the naval commander got a kalashnikov pointed to his head with the message, write or we pull the trigger, so we can say he was under some pressure....
The question is, should he die, being calm that he did not swear his oath to Russians...
Or should he save his life, like he did...

I think you're right in your concerns, but darn if I know what can happen, all I know is that East Ukraine is bandit country, mayor of Kharkiv is the main drug supplyer in Ukraine...
Business is East is about stealing, cheating, and killing the one sthat get in your way, while in West people are incredibly hard working...

It's the picture I do have in my head, perhaps thatæs with pink sunglasses, darn if I know anything anymore.....

East was very pro russian, and west pro EU, I wonder if this will be changing now.... I have no idea aboyut the risk of civil war, to be honest.....

 

[haraldo]

A family portrait

 

[haraldo]

 

[Chu Gai]

Has there been any response or comment from China on this matter?

 

[haraldo]

Has there been any response or comment from China on this matter?

Yes, there was a meeting in the UN Security Council on Monday, where the Chinese representant strongly comdemns russia's use of force and urges russia to deascalate and step fully back and respect Ukraine's integrity and right to sort it's own matters.

China's representant also pointed to the policy of China of non-interference into other countries matters.

 

[Ponzio]

Has there been any response or comment from China on this matter?

Yes they put out their usual stock response to any type of change of an existing government, like in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia, etc. where the existing government should be restored, no matter how oppressive.

Yes, there was a meeting in the UN Security Council on Monday, where the Chinese representant strongly comdemns russia's use of force and urges russia to deascalate and step fully back and respect Ukraine's integrity and right to sort it's own matters.

China's representant also pointed to the policy of China of non-interference into other countries matters.

Here's a quote from The Global Times, which I've also read in the Washington Post and NY Times.
"China is deeply concerned with the current Ukraine situation," Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said when responding to a question on China's stance after Russia's upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, authorized President Vladimir Putin to use military forces to protect Russian citizens and soldiers in Ukrainian territory.

Condemning violences over the past days in Ukraine, Qin said China has been urging all parties in Ukraine to address their domestic disputes peacefully in accordance with the country's law, safeguard the legitimate rights of the Ukrainian people of all ethnics, and restore social order as soon as possible.
China urges political solution to Ukraine situation - CHINA - WORLD - Globaltimes.cn

So Heraldo, all the Ukrainian people have to do is put former President Viktor Yushchenko and his cronies back in power and everything will be hunky-dory. Your Ok with that, right?

It's good to see the Chinese are "concerned" about the Ukrainian people ... excuse me while I stop laughing uncontrollably ... and their outraged alarm that the Ukrainian people had the audacity to run them out of town. The Chinese communists live in mortal fear of any type of change of government. During the Arab Spring the Chinese clamped down on all press reports emanating from those countries. They don't want their own people getting any bright ideas.

While all government's are hypocrites, to various degrees; the Chinese and Russians are the undisputed champions of the world ... hands down. Just read your history books ... that is, the ones not written by the government in question itself.

 

[haraldo]

Yes they put out their usual stock response to any type of change of an existing government, like in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia, etc. where the existing government should be restored, no matter how oppressive.



Here's a quote from The Global Times, which I've also read in the Washington Post and NY Times.
"China is deeply concerned with the current Ukraine situation," Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said when responding to a question on China's stance after Russia's upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, authorized President Vladimir Putin to use military forces to protect Russian citizens and soldiers in Ukrainian territory.

Condemning violences over the past days in Ukraine, Qin said China has been urging all parties in Ukraine to address their domestic disputes peacefully in accordance with the country's law, safeguard the legitimate rights of the Ukrainian people of all ethnics, and restore social order as soon as possible.
China urges political solution to Ukraine situation - CHINA - WORLD - Globaltimes.cn

So Heraldo, all the Ukrainian people have to do is put former President Viktor Yushchenko and his cronies back in power and everything will be hunky-dory. Your Ok with that, right?

It's good to see the Chinese are "concerned" about the Ukrainian people ... excuse me while I stop laughing uncontrollably ... and their outraged alarm that the Ukrainian people had the audacity to run them out of town. The Chinese communists live in mortal fear of any type of change of government. During the Arab Spring the Chinese clamped down on all press reports emanating from those countries. They don't want their own people getting any bright ideas.

While all government's are hypocrites, to various degrees, the Chinese and Russians are undisputed champions; hands down. Just read your history books ... that is, the ones not written by the government in question itself.

Well, Chinese have a strategy of never interfering, probably it's why they're in Tibet......
Victor Yuschenko never managed to do anything...... I don't know where you got it from that anything will be simple from here on, it's an absolutely incredible task to get rid of problem #1, which is corruption, I believe everyone in past and current government is guilty in this area...... so how to get rid of this, have no idea.....
It seems like the new government is not able to decide on anything, but wait for EU and/or US to come and rescue them......
So far, it's only talks...... While some people are scared to death about what's going to happen......

Agree with you that Chinese and russian are the champions

 

[Ponzio]

Well, Chinese have a strategy of never interfering, probably it's why they're in Tibet......

Great response.

Corruption is an old age problem that will never go away in any form of government, democracies included. Like the poor, they will always be among us. It's one of the reasons my father and mother left Sicily to come here. Here anyone can become corrupt, unlike other countries where you need to pay a select set of people or have a family connection to be unscrupulous. Its an equal opportunity den of thieves.

 

[Adam]

If western Europe had readily available alternate oil & gas supplies and was able to say nyet to Russian energy supplies, without suffering major shortages, the bear could be brought to her knees in no time. Instead, Russia holds those cards.

I'm not as equipped to discuss, umm, history as a lot of you, but I do think that they hold another card that plays a role in this - the nuclear card. That, and their military is not trivial. I'd have to do more research before I'd advocate pushing Russia to the brink of economic ruin to change its policies. Pushing Germany into economic crisis in the early 1900's didn't turn out so well. To Russia's credit, they seemed to have kept their s**t together (for the most part) even with the economic problems that they've been having for a while.

Do any of you know the sentiments in Russia about what's going on? As we all know, the political and military actions of a nation do not typically reflect the views of everyone in that nation.

 

[Ponzio]

I'm not as equipped to discuss, umm, history as a lot of you, but I do think that they hold another card that plays a role in this - the nuclear card.

Pardon Adam, who do you mean by "they"? The Ukrainians, Russians or Germans?

Out of those 3, only Russia does. The Ukrainians voluntarily returned all their pre-Soviet nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil to Russia; I believe in 1994, per The Budapest Memorandum.

Also my impression from all the press reports I've read is that the Russian people overall back Putin on this issue, especially the nationalists. PR wise this has really boosted his approval ratings, which were steadily going down, prior to this incident.

 

[Adam]

Pardon Adam, who do you mean by "they"? The Ukrainians, Russians or Germans?

The Russians.

 

[GO-NAD!]

I'm not as equipped to discuss, umm, history as a lot of you, but I do think that they hold another card that plays a role in this - the nuclear card. That, and their military is not trivial. I'd have to do more research before I'd advocate pushing Russia to the brink of economic ruin to change its policies. Pushing Germany into economic crisis in the early 1900's didn't turn out so well. To Russia's credit, they seemed to have kept their s**t together (for the most part) even with the economic problems that they've been having for a while.

Do any of you know the sentiments in Russia about what's going on? As we all know, the political and military actions of a nation do not typically reflect the views of everyone in that nation.

With or without sanctions, I highly doubt that it would come to a military confrontation between the west and Russia, so I don't think the nuclear question has much bearing. In fact, if any sanctions are imposed, I believe they would be symbolic in nature, with little practical effect.

I would imagine that there are dissenters in Russia, but they're probably a small minority. The media is still tightly controlled there and only stories with a positive spin on the Russian governments actions will get much airing. That way, public opinion can be swayed to the governments benefit.


This is all just my humble opinion, of course.

 

[Chu Gai]

Adam, I heard of a poll taken in Russia that indicated close to 75% of the people disapproved of the incursion.

 

[Adam]

With or without sanctions, I highly doubt that it would come to a military confrontation between the west and Russia, so I don't think the nuclear question has much bearing.

There's a difference between sanctions and bringing them to their knees. I agree that the nuclear option is (luckily and thankfully) highly unlikely, but I do believe that it is always a consideration in the decisions that are made.

 

[Rickster71]

Why do I get the feeling this will end as it often does.
Some country rattles a saber and when all is said and done; the USA spends billions, or puts billions into the hands of those involved.

 

[Ponzio]

Adam, I heard of a poll taken in Russia that indicated close to 75% of the people disapproved of the incursion.

Please show me those polls/reference with a link to a valid national polling organization in Russia to support that claim. I'll go on record and place a $100 wager that it is false.

 

[Ponzio]

Why do I get the feeling this will end as it often does.
Some country rattles a saber and when all is said and done; the USA spends billions, or puts billions into the hands of those involved.

Are you recommending that we retreat from the world stage and forgo any influence we know have economically/politically? In short, let the Russians & Chinese take center stage and do whatever they want? I'm not trying being antagonistic here. I'm just trying to understand your reasoning.

 

[Adam]

I love it when we discuss history.