I Am a Ukrainian

[haraldo]

..........

 

[Swerd]

Thanks for posting that.

The old Soviet Union may be gone, but its foreign and military policies all came long before Lenin and Stalin, from Imperial Russia. And, unfortunately, it still exists today.

 

[haraldo]

It's crazy and absolute madness what's going on, and I'm worried like hell.... I have immediate family in Kyiv
They're afraid they can wake up the next morning to a country in full war with the russian war machine outside the kitchen window

Ukrainians on Maidan today stated: putin = hitler

 

[jinjuku]

The Russian army is already digging trenches. This isn't good. My prayers go out to them.

 

[Swerd]

In the 20[SUP]th[/SUP] century alone, the Russians… (I'm borrowing heavily from various Wikipedia pages.)

In 1921, after a conflict with Poland, Russia split disputed territories in Belarus and Ukraine with Poland. Russia also resolved similar conflicts with the newly established nations of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

During the 1930s, collectivization of farms within the Soviet Union led to a catastrophic drop in farm productivity. The upheaval was particularly severe in Ukraine and the heavily-Ukrainian Volga region. The scale of the Ukrainian famine has led many to argue that there was a deliberate policy of starving the Ukrainian people. In Ukraine alone, the number of people who died in the famines is estimated to be between 3 and 10 million people.

Focusing on countries that had the misfortune to be immediate neighbors of Russia is only part of the story. Internally, Russians suffered as bad or worse during the great purges that swept the Soviet Union in 1937.

In 1939 Russians, in cooperation with Nazi Germany, invaded and occupied Poland. In 1940, the USSR occupied and illegally annexed Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

After the war, the Soviet Union occupied and dominated Eastern Europe. Stalin was determined to punish those he saw as collaborating with Germany during the war and to deal with the problem of nationalism, which would tend to pull the Soviet Union apart. Millions of Poles, Latvians, Georgians, Ukrainians and other ethnic minorities were deported to Gulags in Siberia.

By 1948, in disputes with its former WWII allies, Russia militarily sealed off East Germany from the west, although it had already occupied this region 3 years earlier.

In Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania the collectivization of agriculture was started in 1948. Through terror, mass killings and deportations, most of the peasantry was collectivized by 1952.

Military invasions put down rebellions in Hungary and Poland in 1956, and Czechoslovakia in 1968.

In 1980 the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, with disastrous results.

And now in 2014, Ukraine again. I think the trend is abundantly clear, neighbors of Russia are screwed.

 

[Jeepers]

All true and it's very disturbing what is happening in Ukraine but are we allowed to talk about politics on this site ?

 

[Swerd]

All true and it's very disturbing what is happening in Ukraine but are we allowed to talk about politics on this site ?

This is history, not politics .

Politics begins when people argue about what we should do about this – if anything.

 

[Ponzio]

Heraldo ... with all due respect and sympathies, this can not end well for the Ukrainian people, if past history is any indicator. The West [Europe & USA] is impotent when it comes to physically helping the Ukrainian people at this time. The USA is war weary and Europe is a toothless tiger. The 3 armies left to help you out wont, for various reasons. Germany recently signed a gas deal with Russia and will in no way jeopardize that for the Ukrainian's and any aggressive move by them will be viewed with alarm. World War II is still too fresh in peoples minds and let's be honest here, the Ukrainian's did welcome the Wehrmacht with open arms initially when they attacked Russia in WWII. The French are a fickle lot and only join in when there is a numerical superiority, hence their trolloping thru their former colonies in Africa. The English are of the same mindset as the Americans. Putin knows this and is willing to gamble, just like he did in Georgia recently.

Interestingly a treaty signed in 1994, by the US & Britain, could pull both countries into a war to protect Ukraine if President Putin's troops cross into the country. Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma, the then-rulers of the USA, UK, Russia and Ukraine, agreed to The Budapest Memorandum, as part of the denuclearization of the former Soviet republics, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Technically it means that if Russia invades the Ukraine, the signatories are honor bound to come Ukraine's defense. The operative word here being "technically". Keep in mind though that the self-defense pact/treaty signed by England, France & Poland in 1939 officially began WWII with a similar military treaty, so there is always the slim possibility that the West will come to Ukraine's defense but if the recent dustup between Russia vs. Georgia is a sign of things to come, it does not bode well for your countrymen. I wish you and your family well.

Great read on the Crimea, if you're interested.
To understand Crimea, take a look back at its complicated history

 

[Swerd]

Agreed. Putin seems like a bully that only acts tough when there are rebellious, but poorly armed civilians involved. Its very difficult to watch what's happening in Ukraine, but it's unlikely that the US or anyone else can stop the Russians.

 

[shadyJ]

The rest of the world, the US included, could do a great deal to discourage Russia without firing a shot. They could initiate sanctions, tarrifs, boycotts, and so on. But they won't because money trumps ethics, always.

 

[Jeepers]

This is history, not politics .

Politics begins when people argue about what we should do about this – if anything.

OK fair enough. I am sure you will also, using Wikipedia, make the same overview for the US just to represent a balanced view of the history.

 

[Ponzio]

The rest of the world, the US included, could do a great deal to discourage Russia without firing a shot. They could initiate sanctions, tarrifs, boycotts, and so on. But they won't because money trumps ethics, always.

This has nothing to do with money whatsoever. Russia views what is happening in the Ukraine as a national life/death issue as far as they're concerned, especially when it comes to the Crimea. Historically the Ukraine has been a personal sphere of influence and their one and only fresh water port, for their southern Black Sea Fleet, is located in the Crimea (Sevastopol). If you thought that Russia would for one minute stand idly by while you choke off their only secure access to the Mediterranean, you're being a bit naïve. Their only other fresh water port in the Mediterranean is located in Tartus, Syria; not exactly a sure thing right now, considering the ongoing civil war there. Why do you think Russia has been such a loyal ally of Assad? Because he's such a swell guy. If it wasn't for Tartus and their weapons purchases, Putin would've kicked Assad to the curb long ago.

Oh BTW, feel free to "initiate sanctions, tariff's, boycotts, and so on". They will have no effect whatsoever, except to turn Russia to the East, to their southerly neighbor, China, who is starving for oil/gas for their manufacturing base, which is constantly in need of raw materials and energy supplies. Although historically the Chinese-Russian relationship has been one of mutual distrust, I have a feeling all will be forgiven once they both get what they need. Russia gets much needed cash and the Chinese get a secure/constant supply of oil/raw materials. And if you're wondering why this hasn't happened already is because of geography ... it's a long ride from the oil fields of Baku to the Chinese industrial base, mostly located in China's eastern shore ... and like I've stated before, there is the distrust issue.

And the NATO nations for all their outrage/crocodile tears are bluffing. NATO, since the breakup of the Soviet Union, has been trying to gain a foothold in their former client states, on the cheap, with promises of security and access to their worldwide financial markets. Well guess what, it's time to put up or shut up. Outside of food stuffs, what can the Ukraine offer Europe? Energy supplies? Nope. Raw materials? Nope. A strong consumer economy, as an outlet for their manufactured goods. Nope again. So where is there an incentive to put the lives of they're young men in harms way?

Nations like Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Serbia and Bulgaria are all very, very dependent on cheap Russian gas/oil. Poland is the lone exception, because of their long standing visceral dislike of each other. There's a lot of bad blood there and the Pole's would rather eat dirt before coming under the Russian yoke again. Kudos to them but this is why Poland has repeatedly been the battleground between Russia and the West. The Pole's are a victim of geography and you would have thought by now they would have mastered the fine art of diplomacy. Alas, they haven't.

How does this all pan out? I would bet to resolve this issue, the Ukrainian's & the West turn over the Crimea to the Russians and the Russians sign a treaty "promising" ... excuse me while I stop laughing ... to respect Ukraine's existing borders. Everybody claims a victory for their side and saves face with their respective constituents

Just sayin'

 

[Swerd]

This has nothing to do with money whatsoever. Russia views what is happening in the Ukraine as a national life/death issue as far as they're concerned, especially when it comes to the Crimea. Historically the Ukraine has been a personal sphere of influence and their one and only fresh water port, for their southern Black Sea Fleet, is located in the Crimea (Sevastopol). If you thought that Russia would for one minute stand idly by while you choke off their only secure access to the Mediterranean, you're being a bit naïve …

Ponzio has it right. The Russians view this as a life or death issue – defending their homeland by using neighboring countries as defensive barriers. West Asian (today's Russia) history has been dominated for at least 10 centuries by frequent invasions both from the east and the west. The land is flat, there are few natural barriers, and even fewer warm water ports allowing access to oceans.

Russia has essentially 4 ports, St. Petersburg on the Baltic Sea, frozen in the winter and easily closed off by nations to the west; Murmansk on the Arctic Ocean, again frozen in the winter and difficult to reach when it isn't; Vladivostok a continent away from most of Russia; and Sevastopol in Crimea on the Black Sea. Access to the Med and the Atlantic can be easily blocked here also, but Russia isn't going to give it away without a fight.

Western Europe and the US can wring their hands and protest about it being illegal, but Russia regards defensive barriers (i.e. occupying their neighboring countries such as Ukraine) and year round ports (such as Sevastopol) as essential to their survival.

OK fair enough. I am sure you will also, using Wikipedia, make the same overview for the US just to represent a balanced view of the history.

I don't understand what you mean by a balanced view of history. We are talking about a Russian foreign policy that has been consistent for well over 200 years. US foreign policy is not unrelated, but it has little to do with what motivates the Russians.

If we want our foreign policy to be effective, we must first understand what drives their thinking. We must also understand what is in our own national interest, what is in our physical capability, and finally, what is in our national political will.

 

[GO-NAD!]

This has nothing to do with money whatsoever. Russia views what is happening in the Ukraine as a national life/death issue as far as they're concerned, especially when it comes to the Crimea. Historically the Ukraine has been a personal sphere of influence and their one and only fresh water port, for their southern Black Sea Fleet, is located in the Crimea (Sevastopol). If you thought that Russia would for one minute stand idly by while you choke off their only secure access to the Mediterranean, you're being a bit naïve. Their only other fresh water port in the Mediterranean is located in Tartus, Syria; not exactly a sure thing right now, considering the ongoing civil war there. Why do you think Russia has been such a loyal ally of Assad? Because he's such a swell guy. If it wasn't for Tartus and their weapons purchases, Putin would've kicked Assad to the curb long ago.

Oh BTW, feel free to "initiate sanctions, tariff's, boycotts, and so on". They will have no effect whatsoever, except to turn Russia to the East, to their southerly neighbor, China, who is starving for oil/gas for their manufacturing base, which is constantly in need of raw materials and energy supplies. Although historically the Chinese-Russian relationship has been one of mutual distrust, I have a feeling all will be forgiven once they both get what they need. Russia gets much needed cash and the Chinese get a secure/constant supply of oil/raw materials. And if you're wondering why this hasn't happened already is because of geography ... it's a long ride from the oil fields of Baku to the Chinese industrial base, mostly located in China's eastern shore ... and like I've stated before, there is the distrust issue.

And the NATO nations for all their outrage/crocodile tears are bluffing. NATO, since the breakup of the Soviet Union, has been trying to gain a foothold in their former client states, on the cheap, with promises of security and access to their worldwide financial markets. Well guess what, it's time to put up or shut up. Outside of food stuffs, what can the Ukraine offer Europe? Energy supplies? Nope. Raw materials? Nope. A strong consumer economy, as an outlet for their manufactured goods. Nope again. So where is there an incentive to put the lives of they're young men in harms way?

Nations like Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Serbia and Bulgaria are all very, very dependent on cheap Russian gas/oil. Poland is the lone exception, because of their long standing visceral dislike of each other. There's a lot of bad blood there and the Pole's would rather eat dirt before coming under the Russian yoke again. Kudos to them but this is why Poland has repeatedly been the battleground between Russia and the West. The Pole's are a victim of geography and you would have thought by now they would have mastered the fine art of diplomacy. Alas, they haven't.

How does this all pan out? I would bet to resolve this issue, the Ukrainian's & the West turn over the Crimea to the Russians and the Russians sign a treaty "promising" ... excuse me while I stop laughing ... to respect Ukraine's existing borders. Everybody claims a victory for their side and saves face with their respective constituents

Just sayin'

I'm sure the Russians are concerned about their base at Sevastopol, but I highly doubt that it was/is under any real threat by Ukraine. The lease is a significant source of revenue for the Ukrainian government. If the Russians were concerned about the security of the base due to the recent upheaval, they could easily beef up base security without enacting a defacto occupation of the entire Crimea. Plus, Russia has significant coastline on the Black Sea. If push came to shove, they could probably build another base in their own territory. I imagine they leased Sevastopol because it was the cheaper option. I think the reasons for Russia's actions are the significant Russian population of eastern Ukraine and in the Crimea, and to prevent Ukraine leaning towards Europe. The western Ukraine is distrusted by the east because of their ethnic ties to Russia and the collaboration of many western Ukrainians with the Nazis (they have long memories). And, we're seeing much of this playing out in the media right now. I don't know how many quotes I've recently read, which boil down to: "We're here to protect Ukraine from the Fascists". Of course, many western Ukrainians don't trust the Russians because of what Stalin did to them - so, no wonder many of them did collaborate with the Nazis. There's a lot of complicated history here and separating the good guys from the bad guys would probably be impossible. One thing is clear to me though - Russia has no right to do what it has done.

I think sanctions could have a large and immediate impact on the Russian government. They derive 75%-80% of their revenue from oil and gas exports. If Europe suddenly stopped buying, it would cripple Russia financially. They simply could not divert supplies to China quickly enough to maintain cash flow at the level they need, without incurring a lot of pain. Of course, it wouldn't be painless for Europe either. They would have their own problem quickly finding other energy supplies to replace those no longer coming from Russia. And, it would be expensive. It would fall to the USA, Canada, Norway, etc to make up the shortfall and without pipelines, it would require a lot of tankers to keep the supplies up.

In the end, I agree with you in that I don't believe the west will make any significant sacrifice on Ukraine's behalf. If western Europe had readily available alternate oil & gas supplies and was able to say nyet to Russian energy supplies, without suffering major shortages, the bear could be brought to her knees in no time. Instead, Russia holds those cards.

 

[Ponzio]

I think sanctions could have a large and immediate impact on the Russian government. They derive 75%-80% of their revenue from oil and gas exports. If Europe suddenly stopped buying, it would cripple Russia financially. They simply could not divert supplies to China quickly enough to maintain cash flow at the level they need, without incurring a lot of pain. Of course, it wouldn't be painless for Europe either. They would have their own problem quickly finding other energy supplies to replace those no longer coming from Russia. And, it would be expensive. It would fall to the USA, Canada, Norway, etc to make up the shortfall and without pipelines, it would require a lot of tankers to keep the supplies up.

So you do a cost analysis and decide. If your rational man, like Obama, and a rational woman, like Merkel, you decline the invitation. It may sound harsh but this is what happens in "realpolitik", as Willy Brandt branded it back the early 70's. Everyone is looking to the USA to make a decision on how to proceed. Who they should be looking at is Germany. This is their call, not ours. The have the best trained army on the continent and the financial wherewithal to mount a campaign and it ain't gonna happen.

In the end, I agree with you in that I don't believe the west will make any significant sacrifice on Ukraine's behalf. If western Europe had readily available alternate oil & gas supplies and was able to say nyet to Russian energy supplies, without suffering major shortages, the bear could be brought to her knees in no time. Instead, Russia holds those cards.

Putin is just following in the familiar footsteps of his predecessors; Peter the Great, Lenin, Stalin, etc., etc., etc.

He was a mere KGB paper pusher who plans on leaving his mark on Russia's history. The Russians have had an expansionist history since the git-go and right now the Ukrainians fell right into their trap, unfortunately. Unintended consequences you might say. Putin couldn't have planned it better himself.

Crimea was given to the Ukraine in 1957 by Khrushchev as a "gift", since he was the commissar there before rising to the top. Putin is just taking back his "gift" and he doesn't have to pay that stupid lease agreement, in his eyes. I'm not saying he's right but this is how all Russians leaders have behaved when presented such opportunities.

 

[GO-NAD!]

So you do a cost analysis and decide. If your rational man, like Obama, and a rational woman, like Merkel, you decline the invitation. It may sound harsh but this is what happens in "realpolitik", as Willy Brandt branded it back the early 70's. Everyone is looking to the USA to make a decision on how to proceed. Who they should be looking at is Germany. This is their call, not ours. The have the best trained army on the continent and the financial wherewithal to mount a campaign and it ain't gonna happen.



Putin is just following in the familiar footsteps of his predecessors; Peter the Great, Lenin, Stalin, etc., etc., etc.

He was a mere KGB paper pusher who plans on leaving his mark on Russia's history. The Russians have had an expansionist history since the git-go and right now the Ukrainians fell right into their trap, unfortunately. Unintended consequences you might say. Putin couldn't have planned it better himself.

Crimea was given to the Ukraine in 1957 by Khrushchev as a "gift", since he was the commissar there before rising to the top. Putin is just taking back his "gift" and he doesn't have to pay that stupid lease agreement, in his eyes. I'm not saying he's right but this is how all Russians leaders have behaved when presented such opportunities.

No argument with that. The west isn't going to cause any self-inflicted economic pain for Ukraine, because we all live in democracies...with voters...who won't appreciate said pain come election time. A military intervention is a complete non-starter. And yes, for all the democratic window-dressing that successive Russian regimes might throw out there, the concept of real democracy is completely foreign to them. they only understand the "strong-man" concept. That's why so many Russians look back to Stalin with a sense of nostalgia.

 

[lsiberian]

To me it seems like Putin and Obama have been going at it all over the globe.

 

[haraldo]

This post is not about politics, it's history!

In the darkest of hours, full of tension, we feel surprise and anger at the same time. We are delighted of the wise moderation, determination and sense of responsibility of the Ukrainian society and government. And we are indulged in angriness when we see the imperial aggression of Russia towards Ukraine. The rhetoric of Russian politicians, diplomats and propagandists full of lies, hypocrisy and arrogance - it causes resentment and disgust.

In the Polish historical memory they can see live pictures from the past. The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland Radoslaw Sikorski said: "Russia has never invaded Poland. Russia always "comes to the aid of" ethnic and religious minorities." That's how it was in the days of Queen Catherine, when Russia protected religious minorities in the Commonwealth. In fact it was done in order to separate and divide the country. So it was in 1920, and 1939, when Russia defended the workers of cities and towns, as well as minorities to fascist and imperialist regimes in Poland. In 1940,Kremlin rushed to provide assistance to the brotherly Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - with the same purpose, and after the war – In Budapest 1956, In Prague - 1968. Then the "fraternal assistance"was given to Afghanistan, for 9 years, 1 month, 3 weeks and 1 day. Today we can still see the commendable results of the nice brotherly Soviet help to Afghanistan...

Looking today at the Crimea, aggressive Russian soldiers and armed separatists in Crimea, it is difficult not to recall another dictator who passionately cared about their fellow citizens, oppressed by foreign boots. In 1938 Adolf Hitler said about the need to protect the Third Reich "10 million Germans living in neighboring countries." This led to the protection of the expat Germans and initiated a propaganda campaign against Czechoslovakia. As a result, Hitler organized a referendum among the expat Germans as the easiest way to take Czechoslovakia and its subordination to the Third Reich. Such a strategy a year later was used against Poland.

History of the conquest of Czechoslovakia by Hitler has been well studied in Kremlin. This conclusion is drawing parallels to the maneuvers towards Crimea. It is not clear however, whether Putin officials remember the end to Hitler's act of protecting Germans and German nationals in other countries.

Vladimir Putin has returned to the Brezhnev life strategy of "limited sovereignty". He has applied it to Georgia, and now employs about Ukraine. One can only guess where next stop is for Putin's rush for "brotherly assistance". The Baltic countries? Maybe Kazakhstan? or Norway?, Finland?, Sweden?

 

[haraldo]

Heraldo ... with all due respect and sympathies, this can not end well for the Ukrainian people

There's one thing, Ukranian people are incredibly tough, if you push them with the back towards the wall, they will fight till the end and never give up, they will rather die than be humiliated

 

[defmoot]

There's one thing, Ukranian people are incredibly tough, if you push them with the back towards the wall, they will fight till the end and never give up, they will rather die than be humiliated

"Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito"

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